Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

… to be predated by repairs on the dry-dock proper …

it seems that this ship-overhaul-facility is out of commission for the forseeable future …

another big kudos to the UKR for really leveraging their weaponry … outsmarting again and again the bully

Yes, that’s the biggest achievement in the attack. Denying Russia the use of repair facilities. I wonder how many portable docks they have in the Black Sea.

Good grief:

The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.

Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.

The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.

He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.

Yet the first pilot still released another missile.

We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.

More attacks in Crimea. I think its a smart strategy to focus on Crimea’s air defenses. It opens up a wide area for targeting. That bridge will come down eventually

Guardian feed

this info just popped up …

I’d like to hear more about it before taking it as truth

that seems related:

.

what they do NOT say is what happend to their ship!

ahhhh … those russians … what are they? sinking

“Drone was destroyed.”

Well, duh, that’s what they do. Perhaps the brave Russian corvette Samum destroyed the drone the same way you can attack a fist by striking it with a face?

Can someone please put the numbers in context for me?
How much damage has been done, vs how big the Russian fleet is?

We’ve seen recently the attack on the dry dock which damaged a ship and a submarine, and the dock itself. And now this attack on a Russian corvette ship.

In the Black Sea, ow many docks/ports/naval bases does Russia have? and how many ships in total?
How much damage has been done to the Russian navy infrastructure, and will these recent attacks make a difference in Russia’s ability to fight from the sea?

According to Wikipedia: Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia and Sevastopol Shipyard - Wikipedia

There are 7 subs in the Black Sea Fleet, so 1 less means 6. There are 6 to 11 landing ships, so one less means 5-10. And most importantly, 3 drydocks at Sevastopol, meaning that there are probably only 2 functioning right now (assuming the other two were operational), which means 33% less maintenance and repairs (at a minimum) requiring drydocks in the area. That last part is very significant – in my time in the Navy, drydocks are CONSTANTLY refitting and repairing ships, and putting one out of service would mean several fewer ships going to sea each year. And that’s just one attack.

This was a big deal for a single attack. There will almost certainly be many more such attacks as this, especially as Ukraine gets longer range missiles from the West.

yep … and they keep degrading their anti-air defenses as well - there were quite some reports of a number of those “400” AA destroyed tonight

so - that might make it easier for future attacks

Here’s a visual guide:

One is in the Baltic and another in the Mediterannean.

Meanwhile, on the other side of UA, Romania experiences overspray from the SMO. Government tells the people to remain calm, while also setting up shelters in border areas.

Important confirmation of the attacks on Russian Air Defense systems in Crimea. It’s steadily being dismantled. A lot of preparation went into locating and targeting each S-400 battery.

I know tourist photos revealed one location for Ukraine. This is just hilarious. Crimean tourists leak position of Russian air defense system near Yevpatoria

Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

US ELINT is quite capable of locating S400 sites with targetable precision. Whether we’re sharing that data w UKR is unknown to me. The hard part is sneaking up on S400 sites.

I can’t recall General Miley stating the sharing of intelligence this plainly.

Me either. That was informative.

I would hope the US is taking good notes. We’re seeing an entirely different style of war. The sea drones and extensive use of drone attacks throughout Ukraine will require significant changes in NATO training.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukrainian drones eventually take out a slower Russian plane. They just keep improving.

Yet we also see WWI trench warfare in the Ukrainian war. It’s such a contradiction.

Yes, it strikes me as odd. Is it that neither side has enough armoured vehicles to overrun the trenches? That the anti-tank weoponry has made tanks less effective? Why has trench warfare made a come-back here?

The General Milley report estimated Ukrainian losses at 200,000 and Russian at 300,000.

That’s staggering for 18 months of war.

They almost took out a Russian helicopter recently:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1699450520748863582
Minefields are the biggest problem, as well as dragons teeth anti-tank obstacles, anti-tank ditches, and things like artillery, drones, anti-tank guided missiles, and helicopters.