Also possible the guidance system failed at some point and the missile just continued on to fuel exhaustion and impact (if it was a cruise missile, I mean).
I would guess mistake or malfunction is more likely than salami tactics, but who knows?
On the bright side this might end up being the first time a world war really is over by Christmas.
Does it make a difference that people were killed? All of the reputable sources seem to agree on two, though I can’t find anything that says who they were.
Probably Polish farmers. The photo of the damage shows an overturned tractor.
Absolutely. The amount of people that another country (if that’s what happened) kills of course affects Poland’s response.
Poland saying they don’t have hard evidence of which country launched it, but that it was Russian produced. Which doesn’t narrow it down because Ukraine also uses Russian SAMs.
No surprise. Their artillery has shown a distinct tropism for civilian targets rather than military ones.
Which is yet another reason that Russia is screwing up this war. Terror tactics did not work on London in WWII, and they are not going to work today. Ukraine blows up a warship, an ammunition depot, a re-supply convoy; Russia retaliates by blowing up an apartment building and killing some grandmas. Guess who is going to win the war?
I’ve been itching for Article Five to be invoked since February. Hope this does the trick…
thats ultimately irrelevant …
If you don’t want your missiles to explode in NATO territory, simply don’t shoot near NATO (or be prepared for “play stupid games, win stupid prices”) …
'nother mayor screw-up in a long line of screw-ups …it seems
What would you expect to happen after that?
NATO is already doing more than is required under article 5.
I’m guessing a more measured response, like NATO deploying beefed up Air Defense on Poland’s eastern border. Possibly establish an “Iron Dome” with a buffer zone some distance into western Ukraine.
At this point, I’m guessing it’s a Ukrainian air defense missile. A S-300 fired from Russian controlled territory wouldn’t be able to reach Poland. At least I don’t think it will. A S-300 has around 200 miles range, I’m supposing that’s against an aerial target. Even if you give it a perfect ballistic arc, it looks like it’s at least 500 miles from the point in Poland that was hit by the missile to the closest area controlled by Russia.
I’d guess Lviv was the target. Obviously the Russians targeting was way off.
I can’t link the Guardian article. Looks like nearly 100km off using the map scale.
It’s still Russia’s fault.
I think the West should seriously consider giving Ukraine some more advanced anti-air systems to ensure this doesn’t happen again.
Yeah, but it does kind of mean that any real talk of NATO “needing” to reply to the incident won’t hold water.
Heck, that was true yesterday and it’s true today.
It’s about 140km from Belarus. And (probably coincidentally) almost perfectly in line with the shortest path between Brest and Lviv. Russia has launched many many missiles from Belarus airspace.
It’s only irrelevant if you live in a world where intent doesn’t matter.
Very true, but all I know of have been air launched. It would be a divergence from their previous tactics to surface launch S-300 missiles ballistically from Belarus. I’m receptive to any evidence that it was a surface-to-surface launch from Belarus, though.
The problem for Russia may be the effect it will have. NATO will likely treat it as the error it was and not escalate greatly. But it will reunite the countries who have significant populations that are tired of spending money and giving machinery to Ukraine, convincing them they need to continue these efforts.