Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Assuming there was at least a skeleton crew on the destroyed ship, if not a full complement, then for sure the casualty figures given are waaaaaaay too low.

Depends on if they had time to evacuate the crew between missile strike and large secondary explosion of ordinance in the cargo hold.

Also depends on whether firefighters were trying to suppress the fire between the first hit and the secondary explosions. Hopefully any dockworkers in the area beat feet at the first blast.

Several Russian ships that were attacked in the last year were listed as landing ship ( the Novocherkassk for example)

Does that mean what it sounds like? I know we’re reading translations of Russian. Sometimes you can’t parse words in detail.

Is Russia prepared to land troops in a new invasion from the Black Sea? Odessa for example would be vulnerable.

This is a simple observation about the destroyed ship’s name. Any discussion requires a new dedicated thread.

Man, the Russians have a twisted sense of humor. Naming a ship after a massacre by the Soviets.

Ships are traditionally named after important people or major battles. The US often uses living persons like former Navy secretaries. USS J. William Middendorf was announced two weeks ago.

Putin’s alleged overtures toward a cease-fire may start to become more overt pretty soon. Meanwhile, I’m sure this was just a case of another Russian sailor careless with a cigarette! :laughing:

It’s actually named after the city, much like the US naming cruisers after cities in WWII

And yes, they can be used as landing ships. In this war they’ve generally been used as transports, since they can also be loaded/unloaded using cranes.

Here is the Wikipedia page on the Ropucha-class landing ships, of which Novocherkassk was one.

I know there’s been concern for Odessa since the initial invasion.

It could be bombarded by heavy guns by sea. A small Soviet 2M-3M 25mm naval gun for example is cheap to fire and I doubt Patriots would be useful. The Russians have AK-130, a Russian designed automatic dual barrel naval cannon with a caliber of 130 millimetres (5.1 in), capable of firing 10-40 rounds per minute (per gun barrel).

Russian Marines storming the beaches would ruin that city’s day

The last big amphibious landing is Inchon. I seriously doubt the Russians have the tactical skill to replicate it at Odessa.

The NY Times took an interesting approach. First praising and then denigrating Ukraine.

It’s been a huge week for Ukraine Imho. Their victories against Russian assets have strategic value. Losing ground in an already abandoned & ruined city is not really important.

Link https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/world/europe/ukraine-crimea-russia-warship-novocherkassk.html

While it was certainly a concern at the start of the war, any plans for an amphibious landing there sank with the Moskva.

Russia has (more reasonably, had) 12,000 marines (marine/naval infantry). They seem to have attempted an amphibious assault during the ultimately successful early capture of Kherson and were repulsed. They also made a major amphibious landing west of Mariupol as part of that campaign. They’ve taken very heavy casualties during the war fighting in different theaters, in common with other higher-quality units like the airborne troops. While many of those casualties may have been replaced by new recruits, their ability to successfully pull off a large-scale, complex amphibious landing after the loss of so much expertise is to be doubted.

Russia (and most of the world) isn’t the U.S. with its comparatively huge marine corps. Amphibious landings would function as just part of a combined arms operation as at Mariupol/Kherson. If Odessa isn’t threatened overland already, Russia isn’t likely to take it by sea unless there is a general Ukrainian collapse.

A viral hilarious video on social media showcases a Russian soldier’s desperate attempt to catch up with an evacuation MT-LB, while the visibly alarmed driver decides against waiting for him and his other injured comrades.

My wife’s watching a movie, so I couldn’t listen to the audio. So I mentally put in Yakety Sax.

Musically, you’re not far off. It’s not YS but the same kind of bit.

I couldn’t help feeling a bit sorry for the guy who ran so hard, almost made it aboard.

Assuming he got taken prisoner, he’s probably in better conditions right now than his brothers in arms who “made it”.

And amphibious landings are hard, and very expensive even when successful. The US and Britain together managed to pull off D-Day, with full support from both navies and both air forces. There’s no way Russia in its current state could manage it. Probably not even at their height.

They can’t use them for forward operations because they’re essentially a giant casket. When the doors first open a single missile takes out everybody and everything. There just isn’t anywhere to hide. Once the area is secure they’re useful for bringing supplies in.

So hitting that kind of ship is a kick in the butt to Russian logistics, then, as well as morale.

And it probably hinders port operations, too, if only just by being a big chunk of metal that’s generally in the way of everything (plus whatever damage was done by all the explosions). I’m sure that has strategic value, too.

I’ve got to believe that those explosions have to have damaged some portion of the port infrastructure – how much, how important, how easily/swiftly repaired, unknown, but unlikely to have been minimal.

The Ukrainian fortifications held 9 years from 2014-to the present day. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ukrainians temporarily ran short of rockets, shells and bullets. The fortifications sounded impressive when the well supplied defenders could fight back.

Now Ukrainian forces will eventually have to lay siege to their own tunnels and bunkers. Unless they decide to encircle it and leave the Russians to starve.

According to the article, Avdiivka - another key town near Donets is almost encircled by the Russians. It can possibly fall next.

We’re seeing the culmination of months of brutal fighting by Russia. They’re willing to take incredibly high causalities to gain ground. They keep bringing in raw, minimally trained, and under supplied troops as replacements. They cost Russia very little because they don’t value human lives.

Link Ukraine war: Russia captures key town near Donetsk

You can scroll back a few months and see link after link of news reporting about the high Russian casualties. It’s become so common that I often didn’t post about recent engagements.

The Russian military apparently doesn’t care. They haven’t wasted money or time extensively training these soldiers. It appears the supply of fresh Russian meat for the war won’t dry up soon.

Eventually the Russian mothers, wives and fatherless children will have to speak out and demand changes. That won’t be easy when the State controlled press is ordered to ignore any protests.

Ukraine has the opposite problem. Their soldiers are getting specialized training in the UK and Europe. They can’t afford high casualties with little successful gains. There’s a growing resistance to serving in Ukraine’s military.

Ukraine’s frontline positions are holding. I’m beginning to doubt there will be a major counter offensive next summer. The minefields and Russian trenches are just too dense.

It’s a hell of a problem.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mud-and-bullets-retaking-a-labyrinth-of-flooded-trenches-outside-bakhmut/ar-AA1m0hGb