Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[Magiver]

Yahoo News Tue, Jan 2, 2024

Russian oil tankers bound for India are turning around amid scuffle over payments to Moscow
• Russian oil tankers are turning away from India amid disagreements over payment
• The tankers had been hovering near the shores of India and Sri Lanka for about a month.
• India is paying for Russian oil in UAE currency, but one major supplier has been unable to accept payment.

[Northern_Piper]

@echoreply

“If you’re invoiced in rubles, you’ve got to go out and buy rubles,”

That makes sense, thanks. It forces the purchaser to buy rubles with a hard currency to make the payment, indirectly supporting the ruble.

[aceplace57]

If you’re going to steal, dream big.

The penalty seems too lenient. That money was earmarked to buy 100,000 mortar shells. That’s crucial war supplies

That can’t be right. That’s $400 per mortar shell? No way?

Ukraine says corrupt officials stole $40 million meant to buy arms for the...

The SBU said late Saturday that five people have been charged, with one person detained while trying to cross the Ukrainian border. If found guilty, they face up to 12 years in prison.

[Tamerlane]

@aceplace57

That’s $400 per mortar shell? No way?

Seems reasonable, mortar shells are pretty simple. By comparison, a 155 mm HE round:
According to Bauer, the price for one artillery shell has gone up to 8,000 euros ($8,489.60) from 2,000 euros before Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

From here. U.S. production cost (which contrary to usual stereotypes of the uber-capitalist U.S. vs socialist Europe is way more government cost-controlled than the EU) has been quoted as $3000.00 for the same shell. War is expensive.

[smithsb]

Way off but who knows what NATO Europe is costing. A 155mm M795 HE projectile is ~$330 each. I don’t have my current ammo references (been retired since 2015) but my latest reference from 2019 shows that cost. That’s the basic HE loaded shell with lifting/closing plug but without fuze or propellant charge.

Note that there is a lot of wild estimates with no basis floating around the internet. My reference is the AMDF (Army Master Data File).

Now a guided 155mm projectile like Excalibur costs in the low six figures each.

[Tamerlane]

@smithsb

Way off but who knows what NATO Europe is costing. A 155mm M795 HE projectile is ~$330 each. I don’t have my current ammo references (been retired since 2015) but my latest reference from 2019 shows that cost.

Thanks for the correction . Looks like the source I used was claiming that US price for “the most modern shell”. Not the Excalibur, I assume. But still something fancier than the standard. I assume Admiral Bauer was using the most extreme case to push his point.

[Kelevra]

A story about the defense industry in general with some specifics about Ukraine. Countries are trying to build up their own capabilities while supplying Ukraine making everything slower.

"One senior executive told me it will take two years for western defence manufacturers to make enough ammunition so Ukrainian soldiers are as well-supplied as the Russians. "

How a skills shortage could hit Ukraine’s battlefield

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

I don’t really know where we are now with US military support to Ukraine. I thought there was still an impasse in congress, but this report suggests a new long range weapon is being sent to Ukraine this week. Is this just the fulfilment of a previous pledge?

New US-made longer-range bomb expected to arrive as soon as Wednesday in Ukraine

[gnoitall]

It looks like these were part of last January’s aid package, so already funded.

US pledges longer-range ‘small-diameter bomb’ for Ukraine

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

Thanks - the combination of its range and its portability could make this an extremely useful weapon.

[aceplace57]

This could get awkward. How secure is Zelenskiy position as President? The general will get dismissed but how badly will this damage Zelenskiy for firing a popular figure?

Ukraine’s top general refuses request from Zelenskiy to step down

It is not clear that the matter will end there. Goncharenko said Zelenskiy could dismiss Zaluzhnyi and replace him – a process that requires the support of the defence minister – after assessing the public and international reaction.

The most likely replacement would be Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, responsible for covert operations against Moscow. Budanov was touted earlier this year as a replacement for Oleksii Reznikov as defence minister, in another protracted dismissal saga that began with similar bouts of speculation.

It is not clear what an alternative military strategy would look like given Russia’s entrenched frontline positions, while Ukraine’s most urgent crisis is not the battlefield but persuading Congress to approve a $61bn military aid package that would secure a year or more’s weapons supply from the US.

[aceplace57]

I hope ISW’s optimism is correct.

Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War

The anticipated Russian 2024 winter-spring offensive effort is underway in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 30 that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is currently ongoing and that Russian forces aim to reach the Zherebets River (in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area) and the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.[1] Budanov forecasted that Russian forces would fail to achieve these objectives, however, and would likely be “completely exhausted” by the beginning of the spring.[2] Budanov’s statements are consistent with ISW’s observation that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations along this axis since the beginning of January 2024.[3] Russian forces have recently made tactical gains southeast of Kupyansk along the critical P07 Kupyansk-Svatove route near Krokhmalne and appear to be increasing assaults northwest and west of Krokhmalne towards the Oskil River.[4] Russian forces will likely be able to secure additional tactical-level gains in the Kupyansk area but are unlikely to be able to translate these tactical gains into wider mechanized maneuvers needed for operationally significant advances that could capture more territory in Kharkiv Oblast and push to the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast administrative borders. [5] ISW has observed that elements of the Western Military District’s 1st Guards Tank Army and 6th Combined Arms Army are active in the Kupyansk area and have been able to pursue infantry-led frontal assaults but have not shown the capacity to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuver since they were deployed to this axis over a year ago. ISW will soon publish a more detailed operational analysis of the situation on this Kharkiv-Luhansk axis.

[Kelevra]

Ukraine claims the Russians are using chemical weapons.

Chloropicrin is primarily used as a soil fumigant that can be fatal when inhaled, and it is sometimes classified as a riot control agent (RCA) due to its harmful and irritant effects. The CWC prohibits the use of RCAs in warfare.

Institute for the Study of War

[Rhodes]

Is this legit? Video shows a Ukrainian drone evading gunfire and striking a Russian ship. And then a second drone strikes the hole that was blasted by the first drone.

Watch: Ukraine sinks Russian warship in Black Sea drone strike

ETA: Here it is from the non-paywalled BBC:

Ukraine 'hits Russian missile boat Ivanovets in Black Sea'

[scabpicker]

As far as I can tell, it’s legit. The BBC has been reporting on it as well.

[Askance]

North Korean shells are exploding in Russian gun barrels, due to low quality.

[iiandyiiii]

Without a navy of its own, Ukraine has now sunk about 20% of the Russian Black Sea fleet.

[aceplace57]

Good news. That will buy a lot of aid for Ukraine.

The EU is still seeking a solution for Ammo shortages. It’s good that Europe is increasing Munitions manufacture. It could be crucial if a larger conflict with Russia develops in the future.

Guardian live feed

• EU leaders have convinced Hungary’s Viktor Orbán to sign off on a €50bn aid package for Kyiv – which he had vetoed at a summit in December – allowing for a unanimous agreement. Amid anger from European leaders, Finnish prime minister, Petteri Orpo, said: “Nobody can blackmail 26 countries of the EU. Our values were not for sale.” Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, who said he had “nothing nice” to say to the Hungarian prime minister, warned there would be no reward for Orbán or anyone who had tried to solicit “rotten compromises”.
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said he was grateful to EU leaders for their deal on long-term financial assistance but also urged them to step up on military aid. “It is very important that the decision was made by all 27 leaders, which once again proves strong EU unity,” he added.

EU Ministers Meet, Urging More Ammo For Ukraine

To deal with the shell shortage, Brussels pledged to deliver 1 million shells by spring, but so far only some 300,000 have been delivered to the Ukrainian military.

Earlier this month, representatives from 23 countries gathered in Paris to launch an “artillery coalition” for Ukraine, a U.S- and France-led initiative under the umbrella of the so-called Ramstein Contact Group that consists of more than 50 allies of Ukraine.

On that occasion, Paris pledged six more Caesars, the flagship howitzer of French artillery that can strike targets at more than 40 kilometers distance, saying they will be delivered in the following weeks.

On January 30, Politico, citing multiple sources, wrote that Ukraine may receive a new U.S. long-range precision bomb this week. The brand new weapon, made by Boeing, can travel about 145 kilometers and carries a 113-kilogram bomb, the news outlet reported.

[Mr.Duality]

That video does not show what you say it does.

[aceplace57]

Rosgvardia will probably be in the war news soon. It’s just a rebranded Wagner Group.

Guardian live feed

The Russian national guard, a force also known as Rosgvardia, is incorporating three former Wagner assault detachments into its first volunteer corps formation, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD). The MoD said that Russian president Vladimir Putin had signed a law on the 25 December last year, authorising the Russian national guard to form its own volunteer formations. Rosgvardia is often referred to as Putin’s “private army”.