I’m not sure that’s a problem. These are 18-20 year old poorly trained, poorly equipped conscripts, many of whom are from Moscow and other large centers. They were not supposed to be part of meat wave attacks. More likely they will surrender in larger numbers than expected.
You are correct. A better word would have been “reality” or something like that.
A new possible motive for this attack:
Sudzha hosts a measuring station for Russian natural gas arriving from western Siberia, which then flows through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe, accounting for about 3% of European gas imports.
“Smart people in Kyiv have calculated that they should take over this hub, in order that the Russian army will have to destroy it [to take it back],” Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, said on a state television talkshow. “This means deliveries of gas to Europe will be stopped, because of Russia’s actions, not Ukraine’s. By the way, this will hit Hungary and Slovakia very hard,” he added. So far there has been no indication of a disruption to the gas flow.
I see people pooh-poohing that idea because Ukraine already had the ability to stop the shipments since the gas goes under Ukraine, and is set to expire at the end of 2024 at any rate. I don’t think stopping shipments for an extra few months would bring much value, and to the extent that Europe depends on this gas, I don’t think that Europe would buy Ukraine’s excuse of “it’s Russia’s fault the gas stopped” if Russia destroyed the gas pipe.
However, if Ukraine can push far north, it looks like they can disrupt one of the largest other pipelines that passes through Belarus.
The Russians evacuating from Kursk are reportedly being sent to Crimea.*
Yes, it’s the daily mail, but I’ve seen other sources as well reporting the same news. I imagined that those evacuating would have mostly gone to Kursk city. That they’re sending them to Crimea seems to indicate that Russia either thinks they can’t take back the territory Ukraine is occupying or that they’re planning some kind of indiscriminate bombing campaign to just flatten everything and then move back in.
- Some sources are saying that they’re going so far as to relocate the Kursk evacuees to the Russian occupied parts of Zaporizhia oblast.
If the rest of Europe wouldn’t buy Ukraine’s assignment of blame to Russia for stopping the southern pipeline, then how would stopping a larger northern pipeline be any different? (If anything, I think that any offensive action Ukraine takes that, however indirectly, cuts off Russian gas to the rest of Europe will make the rest of Europe less inclined to support Ukraine in the future. At best, they’ll threaten to pause or withdraw some aid or support until Ukraine pledges not to do anything else that may disrupt the flow of gas, even if that results in a military disadvantage.)
Makes some sense; moving refugees to an area of Russia not directly affected by the war, where they might talk to neighbors and spread ‘unpatriotic ideas’ sounds right out of the authoritarian playbook (probably ours too, if it was ever considered necessary–wars are rather messy when it comes to individual freedoms.
Press on.
You write that as if there’s no freedom of movement in Russia. I’m pretty sure the evacuees are free to go elsewhere (for instance, to stay with relatives in Moscow) on their own dime. The government may have chosen to temporarily resettle those with nowhere else to go in Crimea simply because it’s got space available and is closer and cheaper than the alternatives. (It’s only about a day’s bus ride away from Kursk.)
It’s interesting that now, in order to fight Ukraine, Russia has to shell it’s own territory.
Something Russia has not hesitated to do in every previous war it’s fought.
You may well be right, but I would suggest that in an authoritarian nation in a state of war, movement can be restricted under martial law and martial law has been in place in Kursk since October 2022 (per Wikipedia).
But it is not worth arguing at this time, we’ll see what transpires.
Not the first time Russia has had to devastate their own lands in wartime (see 1812 and 1942, not to mention various Mongol Hordes and the Battle on the Ice in 1242)
.
My point is that now at least some shells won’t be landing in Ukraine.
I have no clue how much space for refugees is available in Crimea, but to say it’s closer and cheaper than alternatives can’t be accurate. Kursk (the city) is the obvious first choice for government relocation of refugees, even if that’s only temporary. Voronezh is a large city (1,000,000+ inhabitants) about 130 miles due west of the Ukrainian advance, which would be the next obvious choice – at least, it looks that way on paper. Heck, Moscow is only 320 miles or so north of Kursk city.
But sending refugees from the Kursk oblast allllll the way to Crimea doesn’t make sense. That’s a trip of almost 1,000 miles, depending on the route (and if you’re not concerned about the refugees being on a road that’s theoretically close enough to Ukrainian-controlled territory to be shelled for a fair portion of the trip).
Like many things in authoritarian countries, there’s probably a reason for it, but it doesn’t make any logical sense.
It doesn’t make “logical sense” because you’re not thinking like an authoritarian. You probably think the relocations are being done for the benefit of the people being relocated. They are not. They’re being done for the benefit of the State, and Putin. There’s a good chance Putin blames these people for “failing” to stay in their homes, and so he will have no problem punishing them with a longer trip to a worse location.
These are the guys who made Siberia a meme, after all.
Maybe they’re trying to reinforce their claim to Crimea by further increasing its Russian population.
I would have thought it was an effort to entrench the idea that Crimea belongs to Russia. The fact that it’s only going to come under increased fire in the not-too-distant future doesn’t bother Putin at all.
ETA: Argh! Ninja’d!
Moderating
Back to breaking news please and not conjecture and debate.
I have watched a large number of videos showing captured Russians. Based on previous Mod action I won’t link to them. I have read that upward of 2,000 prisoners have been taken. There is already talk of making a prisoner swap.
As for reasons that Ukraine has attacked Kursk their spokesman says it’s to pressure Russia to negotiate favorable terms for peace.
Whoops! sorry!
seems relevant to this threat:
“From 19 August, we are closing access to five settlements, removing residents and helping them bring out their property,” Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on the Telegram social messaging app, naming small villages near the border.
(bolding mine)
Is that code for “looting”?