Shopping center?
— yes, I know that Russia’s deliberately bombing civilians.
I’m guessing that it was just close to the refinery. Fires have a tendency to spread.
Yeah, I should have read the linked article first. It says:
A nearby shopping centre was also burning, reportedly after drone debris fell on the building, and several residential high-rise blocks were evacuated.
which reads that they didn’t hit the shopping center on purpose.
Interesting. I’m trying to picture how “drone debris” winds up that distance from the primary target. If the inbound had been knocked down by anti-drone defenses, that might do it.
I guess it’s an important refinery, so having some AA defenses might make sense.
Some third-hand video here but it very much does look like a Russian own goal, blowing up their own refinery while trying to shoot down a drone.
Here’s a bunch of video. Looks pretty fucked.
Another compilation of videos. Interesting that it was mostly a daylight attack, psychological reasons? It appears the flying saucer storage tank lid was a result of an errant Russian interceptor. We, US, also discovered the PATRIOT missile software in Desert Shield could calculate a below ground intercept or route the missile thru an apartment building or airport control tower. Those scenarios were quickly corrected.
It’s had a psychological effect on me. Previous to this attack, I thought that the reasons that the risk from drones falls off (but does not disappear) the further you are from the front line were the limited range of some drones, and the less importance per square mile of rear areas, and the natural attrition that comes from some of the drones getting intercepted on their way which would naturally increase the further you are from the drone launch point just because there are more miles in which you could get detected.
Now I think that the last reason is less important than I previously thought. If the Russian anti drone defense is as incapable in general as it was from this clip, it seems that the only thing stopping Ukraine attacking anywhere they want from the air is their capability to create long range drones.
Big, bigger troubles in Crimea. Fuel depot hit near Kerch bridge along with last substantial ferry. Fuel sales canceled to public and business (unless they come up with ‘something extra’).
Crimea is under a curfew for an indefinite period now. Even street lighting is being turned off.
Wow. I gotta wonder whether there’ll be a collapse or withdrawal by Russia at some point soon, as they had to do elsewhere previously.
Yeah, everyone assumes that Crimea would be part of what Russia would keep in a negotiated settlement, but it’s going to be easier for Ukraine to retake than the eastern territories.
Given that Crimea was historically not a part of Ukraine (AIUI they were attached for admin reasons in the 50s) they could perhaps swap it for their actual historical territories in Donbas etc. Not that I think Putin would agree to that, but I suspect he’d have been face-planted from a few stories up by that time.
Well, that is not impossible. True Ukraine’s hold on Crimea isnt all that solid historically.
I agree that the Crimea looks easier to take than the eastern oblasts these days which I did not have on my bingo card. The land corridor to Crimea was always precarious, but I hadn’t also counted on how difficult it would be to advance troop control. Now that the corridor has been rendered unsafe by drones roaming at will, Russia will have to pour resources into Crimea just to hold it that it might not be able to afford.
It’s be precarious for either side. From a strategic PoV, I’m not sure Ukraine wants it back so badly they pour lots of resources into taking it. After 4 years of war, they don’t have lots of reserves left for that.
Yeah, it looks far better for Ukraine to make Russia pay for holding to Crimea instead of the other way around.
Russia could simply withdraw from Crimea and let the Ukrainians hold the hot potato, but their pride would not allow it, so…
Russian commentators are freaking out. They’re apparently terrified by what’s going on with the siege of Crimea. I guess I can understand why. The Russian military has so far devised no effective counter to the blockade that’s underway on highway traffic to and from Crimea. And Ukraine just blew up ALL of the Russian ferries that were plying the Kerch Straits. The Kerch bridge, of course, is still in place but was damaged badly enough by two previous Ukrainian attacks that Russian engineers determined the bridge couldn’t safely allow the passage of trains and heavy cargo trucks across it. It still, however, allows cars and lighter vehicle traffic to pass. The Russians haven’t used the Kerch Bridge for logistics purposes for a couple of years now.
Ukraine hasn’t attempted to blow up the bridge recently and it’s evidently by design. Drone footage of the recent attack on the oil depot located a few hundred meters from the bridge clearly shows the bridge in the background. Ukraine can apparently hit the bridge any time they want, but are not doing so, in order to give the Russians a window to leave the peninsula. It’s not at all clear how Russia can prevent the Ukrainians from starving them out. It appears likely Russia will be compelled to do what they were forced to do in Kherson and simply leave.
It isn’t pride, Russia needs Crimea in a way they really don’t need the Donbas. The Donbas was once an industrial hub, now it is just a shattered wasteland that will be an economic millstone around Russia’s (or Ukraine’s) neck for decades, regardless of its coal and iron deposits. Crimea is a strategic prize, home of the Black Sea fleet even after Ukrainian independence. They were to be under lease initially until 2017, then extended to 2042 (with option for a five renewal afterwards) by a pro-Russian regime in 2010. Russia of course made that moot by seizing Crimea in 2014.
Russia has made Crimea very difficult for Ukraine to take by force by building elaborate defensive lines starting in late 2022 in reaction to the successful Ukrainian counter-attacks against Kherson and in the Kharkiv oblast. This switch to mobile defense in depth is the main reason the attempted Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023 stalled out. Putting pressure on Crimea by effective blockade is an entirely different tactic, but Russia can’t really afford to blink on this one.
How much is even left of the Black Sea fleet?