About 48 intact out of the 84 pre-war size.
A little bit more than half apparently - they’ve taken a shellacking. But it ultimately doesn’t matter in context. Ships are easier to build than an entire regions worth of factories and supply chains. As long as Russia clings to pretensions of great or even regional power status on the Black Sea, Crimea will be a strategic linchpin. Their other port options aren’t competitive.
To keep this news:
The Turkish Fleet is now several times more powerful than the Black Sea . The ship has sailed on being a significant regional power. Russia has no new assets on the way and meanwhile the Turkish Navy is adding a carrier and some modern Destroyers. These will most likely be the best warships on the Black Sea.
Russia has a little over half the number of ships left, but I’m having a hard time finding info on the tonnage, or total firepower, or equivalent (I’m sure there are plenty here who know better than I the most appropriate measure to use). I know that the Moscow was by far the largest of them, before it obligingly go fucked itself, so it seems likely that they’re well under half of their actual total pre-war strength.
Oh I agree, but that’s an strategic objective, a tactical withdrawal from Crimea may help them win the war eventually and then reclaim it in the negotiations table, after the Ukrainians in turn fail to hold it.
Of course, possession is more than 9/10 of the law in foreign relations, so it could backfire.
It is tricky, many of those larger ships they lost were Soviet. They were old and not likely well maintained. But the numbers were in the link I gave.
The Black Sea fleet is significantly weaker, no new assets coming.
The only other major player in the Black Sea is Turkey and they are now much more powerful with better assets on the way.
Just outside the Black Sea sits Greece. It looks like their Navy might well match Russia now and beyond that is the rest of the Mediterranean NATO Navies. Far more powerful.
Russia is currently afraid to expose their remaining assets to just the Ukraine anti-ship forces.
The Black Sea Fleet is bottled. It will be decades before they actually need the capacity of Crimea, if ever.
Unless your objective is total annihilation – and you have the assets to assure it – always leave your enemy a way out to prevent its “fighting with the courage of despair.” – Sun Tzu
This is to say nothing about humanitarian reasons like civilians who’d rather be somewhere else and the massive hit on morale of the invaders.
One of the layers I can bring up on my Geochron is Active Carriers which is updated once a week from public sources. The name is a bit of a misnomer as it actually ranges from carrier strike groups and amphibious task forces for the USN on down to the most prominent ships of the lesser navies. In the European regional map, which includes both the Black and Baltic seas, the Russian navy assets shown are down to frigates.
LONG RANGE SANCTIONS indeed
Now, even Putin is acknowledging fuel shortages.
The fuel shortages across Russia are acute and Russians are fleeing Crimea. It does feel like things are coming to a head.
Denys Davydov is saying on his YT channel that Ukraine is going to do an amphibious landing in the NW coast of Crimea, or at least that the Russians are expecting them to. What his sources are I don’t know.
If they are planning anything like that I hope they’re really landing elsewhere, a la Normandy!
Unless there are robots on those landing craft, I hope they don’t try something like that. Ukraine is on the cutting edge of the future of warfare. Resorting to costly tactics from WWII is not the future of a smart military.
They wouldn’t be that dumb. It will be bait to draw Russian resources from elsewhere, and strike a psychological blow.
And of course if the Russians don’t take the base, and Ukraine manages to establish enough of a beach-head to stage some rocket artillery, Crimea starts looking fairly precarious for Russia.
Moderating:
Please take this discussion to another ukraine-invasion, this is the breaking-news thread for it.
Russia/Ukraine update.
Russia pounds on the gates of Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-pounds-gates-ukraines-fortress-belt-2026-06-29/
Putin Adopts Nazi Strategy With Strikes On Ukraine’s Most Sacred Sites:
Ukraine’s Barracuda Drones Now Deliver FPV Kill Chains to russian Positions Along the Dnipro (Video):
Russia Adapts T-90M for Drone Warfare as Frontline Feedback Shapes New Protection Package:
Ukraine Reveals Unique Deep-Strike Solution: A Rocket Launched From Balloons:
Russian high schools now require 17 hours of basic military training classes for 6th to 11th grade:
Yeah, come on all of you, big strong men
Uncle Putin needs your help again
He’s got himself in a terrible jam
Way down yonder in Crimea-land
So put down your books, pick up a gun
Gonna have a whole lot of fun
And it’s 1, 2, 3
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is Vietnam
And it’s 5, 6, 7
Open up the pearly gates
Ah, ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee!
We’re all gonna die
Well come on mothers throughout the land
Pack your boys off to Crimea-land
Come on fathers don’t hesitate
Send them off before it’s too late
Be the first one on your block
To have your boy come home in a box
approximately one-third of the total oil refining capacity in the country is currently idle following at least 50 drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure facilities since March.
“The most alarming point is that the crisis is only beginning,” notes Finam strategist Yaroslav Kabakov. “The peak of seasonal demand traditionally falls in August–September, while signs of shortage and price acceleration appeared already in June.”
The timing of the infrastructure disruptions coincides with critical agricultural demands. Chris Weafer, head of the consulting firm Macro-Advisory, noted that approximately one-third of refining capacity is offline. “This is happening at a critical time for the Russian economy, when the harvest season begins,” he emphasized.
I’m not sure why they said political agreement instead of just an agreement. I guess this a firm US policy change.
Guardian feed
Ukraine has forced closure today of the Kerch Strait connecting the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. Slava Ukraini! Russia’s border guards notified shipping companies that all requests for passage through the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, would not be accepted from 6:10 p.m. local time on July 10.
Given Ukraine’s ability to adapt technology on the fly this will be a benefit to the US as well as Ukraine.