Then we have different assumptions. Of course Putin would like to save face, but that ship has long since sailed. The whole world now knows that the Russian military sucks. In a one vs. one without nukes, Russia would likely lose to a mid-level western power like Poland. Of course he’s not worried about that because he knows that even without nukes the democracies of the world have no interest in conquering Russia. It’s now obvious that powerful authoritarian regimes also have no such interest because if they did, they would have taken advantage of Russia’s weakened situation by now.
What he really wants is a genocide of the Ukrainian people.Getting him to give up on that would be like trying to convince Hitler to stop killing the Jews as long as he gets to keep Austria and Czechoslovakia.
Todays ISW can be summarized as Keep the pedal to the metal. Keep pushing forward through the winter and maintain the initiative. It will be interesting to see where Ukraine strikes again.
I’m wondering if Crimea might be a softer target than Donbas? The satellite photos may show less fortifications in Crimea.
There are reports Russian soldiers are suffering in the winter cold and becoming dead due to lack of such basics as gloves and boots and winter gear, lack of food, lack of means to provide heat where they’re dug in…
I always feel for the innocent collateral damage in these cases-is it possible it’s not Ukraine-based but from a sympathetic country? Or Russian but framing Ukraine?
And owing to the lack of bridges, it ultimately means having to go through Zaporizhia before approaching Kherson oblast from the east. But yes, even with the recent Russian upgrades to fortification made in Kherson, it’s still a much softer target than the Donbas.
At which point Russia will be in a tight spot on the left bank of the Dnipro. Either they can retreat back to Crimea, or end up facing a hammer and anvil type maneuver and having all their troops in Kherson cut off from retreat. I bet Putin will choose the latter.
Here’s a video I saw recently where it’s explained that the land approaches to the Crimean peninsula are very limited, which you’d think would favor the defender, but at the same time the peninsula’s geography isolates it in terms of logistics. The maker of the video argues compellingly that the one and only reason Russia prizes Crimea is the naval base at Sevastopol, and the creation of the land bridge to Crimea matters far more to Russia than the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces that Putin publicly claims as being their strategic objective.
I just watched that video. It makes sense. Just looking at the map, Ukraine making a wedge from Zaporizhzhia down to Melitopol seems like it would be an excellent next step.
On the other hand, if this is the strategic lynchpin (and I agree that it certainly seems like it is), I wonder why Russia is using up so much force against Bakhmut.
Even just a broad wedge as far as Tokmak would almost but not quite cut off the land link to Kherson and Crimea, because at that point, you would totally cut off a lot of the roads, and also would be within medium-range missile range of the rest of the supply route with enough room to not expose them to counterbattery fire. You probably wouldn’t want to hit every convoy with a missile since it is expensive (although less expensive than longer range missiles), but enough so that the route is distinctly perilous.
Figuring out why Bakhmut seems so important to the Russians is going to be a good topic for historians of this war.
Ukraine’s defense makes sense, because they’re being handed an opportunity to bleed Russia in an area that minimizes risk to civilian populations, but why is Russia so determined to take this place? Is it just as simple as someone with influence has gotten their ego all wrapped up in winning this one fight? Or is there something weirder or more sinister in play?
Keep in mind this portion of the front is being managed by a private military company (Wagner). The owner, Prigozhin, could be trying to demonstrate that his private army are the only Russians moving forward at a time when all ministry of defense forces are either stationary or retreating. Prigozhin couldn’t care less how many prisoners die in frontal attacks so long as he can make some sort of argument they’re moving forward. His influence campaign seems to be working and already some are comparing him to Rasputin.
That’s a part of it. The bigger part is that taking territory in Kherson and (hopefully eventually) Crimea shrinks the border with Russia, while taking territory in Luhansk and Donetsk just shifts the border to the east.
Around 800+ kilometers! Wonder how they struck that far into Russian territory? The Russians are blaming a UAV, if so, that’s incredibly damning for the Russkies, but what really did it?
sometimes I suspect that the “drone” story is just a cover because there are teams inside Russia tasked with blowing shit up, and they want to keep this a secret.
