Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Let me agree. I’ve posted this before in Putin threads. Some of the long-time Putin watchers I’ve seen (ie, Masha Gessen) have said that he really isn’t that bright, he’s just a thug who knows how the system works. He’s a good fit for Russia, from a “corporate culture” perspective.

I don’t recall all the places I’ve seen this said (it was multiple times over the years) but one I’m sure of is “The Putin Files” by Frontline.

Wasn’t he the head of the KGB? Not just a member, but actually in charge. Like Bush the first with the CIA.

I feel like the head of intelligence agencies is probably pretty smart.

No, he was a mid-level bureaucrat stationed in Dresden and was reportedly dissatisfied with the post.

Thanks much, that actually makes me feel better.

I know this is a tangent but it’s a lot more complicated than that. According to Belton, that was itself a cover. Dresden was the organizational center for the Red Army Faction terrorist cells and other far-left extremist groups, precisely because it was considered such a backwater. And Putin was at the center of that. From Belton’s source: “There was nothing in Dresden, nothing at all, except the radical left. Nobody was watching Dresden, not the Americans, not the West Germans. There was nothing there. Except one thing: these meetings with those comrades.” And if we know one thing about Putin, he’s good at the effective use of disruptive resources against the West.

I’m not familiar with Belton. And maybe that’s true, but none of the popular press I’ve read has made the claim that Putin was anything more than a nobody

to wit:

The piece is about the impact of the collapsing eastern bloc, but makes several references to his “hum drum role” and “a relatively junior figure, off to one side, but already networking among the elite.”

True, but would it have been different if Zelensky had accepted the “ride” offered by the US instead of saying " I need ammunition, not a ride"? How much hinged on that? I ask sincerely as it has some really interesting and inspiring implications

The other difference from 2014, as I understand it, is that Ukraine was not really in a position to contest the seizure of Crimea, but has spent the past 8 years beefing up their military, studying the Russian military and doctrine and planning for the 2022 invasion (even though they hoped it wouldn’t happen). And western nations have assisted Ukraine in that upgrading. That put Ukraine in the position to resist in 2022, in a way that they likely could not have done in 2014.

Or Hitler. Hmm, how many evil dictators actually got to enjoy a long and happy life or a nice retirement?

Castro. Franco. Chairman Mao. Stalin. Ferdinand Marcos. Kim Jong-il. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (Shah of Iran). The entire House of Saud.

Would add Idi Amim to the list, but yeah, it happens.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov says Russia has already destroyed 4 Bradley Fighting Vehicles in Ukraine. Which is indeed remarkable in that none have been delivered yet.

You can’t really expect them to wait until the Bradley’s actually get there, it makes them look weak and that they can’t project power outside their borders. Wait a second - never mind.

Someone’s keeping a tally of donated equipment the Russian MoD has claimed to have destroyed:

But when it doesn’t happen (see list by AI128 and Dr Deth), the results can be quite painful, as Mussolini and Qaddafi in particular, discovered.

There are reports that Putin viewed the video of QAddafi’s killing several times, as well as Cesusecu’s, and is determined that won’t happen to him.

This problem has been addressed. Long time ago now though. Perhaps these are the reinforced ones or not. I’m not in a position to say.

I remember my History teacher said weapons used and tested in the Spanish Civil War were improved for WWII.

The Bradley got tested and improved in Iraq.

I think we’re seeing the same thing with NATO weapons in Ukraine. We’re seeing drones used in new ways to wipe out infrastructure. HIMARS have been incredibly effective.

Germany discovered irs Puma APC aren’t reliable. I’d speculate a lot of NATO equipment is getting throughly tested in Ukraine.

NATO countries will make improvements as needed.
Cite German military swaps APCs for NATO force after breakdowns - ABC News

Hope it works out.

The Guardian blog

I read that Germany is not objecting to the Leopards being transferred. They say what Poland does is their business.

There’s an interesting section of that article about Putin’s time in East Germany as a KGB officer as the Iron Curtain falls:

This warning about what can happen when people power becomes dominant was one Putin could now ponder on the long journey home.

“Their German friends give them a 20-year-old washing machine and with this they drive back to Leningrad,” says Putin biographer and critic Masha Gessen.

What is it with Russians and washing machines?