Okay, as everyone knows, on March 19, the US and UK launched a “Decapitation Attack” againest one of Saddam’s Bunkers. The bombs hit, but we don’t know if they killed Saddam.
Saddam has dropped out of sight. No live appreances and releasing tapes that are decidedly dated. Now I’ve heard rumors that in one of the “live” briefings by a senior iraqi offical, an indiviual can be seen in the background who was is apparently Saddam’s Personal Bodyguard. Bodyguard, but no Saddam.
Given what I’ve seen so far and assuming the bodyguard thing is true, It would point to one of the following conclusions, IMHO.
Saddam is Dead and his bodyguard has been reassigned to the next highest offical still living.
Saddam is Alive and the tapes and the apperence is a brilliant ploy to try to convince us that he’s dead.
Saddam is Alive, but so paranoid he won’t even let his Bodyguard around him, let alone anyone else.
My bets are on he’s alive. Those bunkers are built to withstand small direct nuclear hits. The tapes we see are all carefully planned. Saddam benefits from there being confusion about him, and he knows this. Fighting against a ghost-enemy is demoralizing. When he rises from the dead, it’ll be even harder.
I think they made more than one bunker. DId you see that guy on the news who made the bunker for him? Im sure they got him to tell just where that bunker is, so SH wouldn’t be so dumb not to know that he told them. Thus, he must have another hiding place somewhere.
It seems to me that there may be a public lowering of the government’s desire to focus on Saddam, and talk more about regime change. I imagine that possible reasons for this include lessons learned about focusing on ObL, and a desire to keep speculation about attempts to kill him out of the news.
However, I am sure that the Coalition would love to get Saddam. But it may be better to capture him rather than kill him and let him become even more of a hero. From the government’s point of view, I suppose that the best thing would be to have him tried for war crimes by the new Iraqi government.