Virtually is one word for it. That would be, most likely, 2 Scum and a SK vs two remaining Town. Town’s chances slim to none. You did the math, you wrote the numbers down yourself, and you are still seriously advocating something that has a measurable chance of wiping us out? Seriously? From where I’m sitting that looks scummy as hell.
vote: AllWalker
Vote Count:
Tilty (1): USCD
Norma (2): OaOW, Allwalker
AllWalker (1): Norma
I think **Normal ** is Town.
The safest bet for toDay, unless we get a very strong case against someone else, is to lynch Tilta. If her role claim is true, she’ll survive (whether Town or Scum, Escape Artist does seem pro-scum - Town wastes a lynch and if she’s NKed, scum already know her alignment so only Town will be in the dark) and we’ll be down at most 2 townies from NKs and will have another Day to keep fighting. Best case scenario is she’s scum and her claim is false, she dies and the SK and scum find each other. The alternatives could weaken Town too much (1 mislynch = up to 3 less Townies, mislynch Normal = up to 4 less Townies)
Vote Tiltawhirl
Two things bother me about AllWalker’s claim.
First: it’s not “evil-ish” in the slightest. Every single other Town power role, claimed or proven, has had drawbacks.
Me – if I screw up and get lynched, I stand a good chance of taking Town with me
Tiltawhirl – we lose information for a time if she is NKed
OAOW – the leader restriction draws notice, not a good thing for an investigator
Boozy – politician, 'nuff said
Gryff – at least one of his items (the tiara) could have been dangerous for Town if used in a tricky endgame situation
Thing Fish – bodyguard, like bomb and politician, is a traditional role that’s nevertheless “evil-ish”. Winds up dead if he guesses right.
Peeker – goes without saying
Daphne – link a weak investigation to one of the most distrusted Townie roles
Freudian – goes without saying
TexCat – winds up dead if she recruits a Scum or tries to recruit someone who is then attacked (not sure which happened, but either way it’s a drawback)
Am I missing any? In any case, Lucky Townie is all positives for Town, no drawbacks whatsoever.
Maybe more significant – if you have that role legitimately, how do you play? Do you sit back and wait for Town to get around to worrying about the less noisy players, so you can then claim if pressured and forewarn Scum about yourself? (Or wait for a mass claim, which does the same thing.) Or do you try to get out there and push things, in hopes you become enough of a danger to Scum that they try to kill you?
AllWalker’s been playing like someone who does NOT want to be NKed. That’s contrary to his claimed role.
OTOH, it fits in with his play style from previous games; he’s always been more of a guy to summarize the day’s combat than to get into the trenches early. I’m going to go look back at my WoW on him with an eye towards whether he’s a Serial Killer - I was concentrating on the scum side of the equation before and still don’t think he’s scummy.
Here’s my wall on AllWalker (days 1 through 4 1/2).
Nothing jumps out as either fingering him as a SK or ruling him out. Small datapoints:
a long post on the Daphne/peeker roleblocker claims, where he brings up the idea of lynching a town roleblocker, which I guess is Mafia CW but which I totally don’t get; anyway, it’s an argument a Serial Killer would be fond of, though also something Town could easily come up with.
“I agree with Chronos’s guess that the extra kills come from a (most likely compulsary) Vig.” (reacting to night 2 kills)
I’d count his Day 1 vote as slightly on the Town side of things; there was a reasonable bandwagon forming on jpei at the time which someone looking mainly to stay under the radar could have hopped on without drawing much notice.
So just a couple very weak indicators; nothing that really should sway anyone one way or the other.
/snipped and bleached
Mods, is there any significance in the fact that Boozy died 8 hours before the end of the Night?
In case I don’t get an answer… I noticed this during a re-read. Boozy’s dying 8 hours before the end of the Night could indicate that he was not night killed (or at least not night killed based on usual game mechanics), right?
Maybe he tried to use the “auto-will” he received from Gryff or maybe he tried to do something with name tag he got from DB?
I’m thinking we may not have a SK at all and Alka was our only 3rd party. Possibly scum had extra night-kills based on the number of surviving scum? Maybe when they lost both JC and Chronos they lost the extra one?
As ever, ignore me if this is completely and utterly implausible. I’m just hoping Town has is in a stronger position than it appears.
I don’t think Gryff would have likely had any items that would be outright suicidal to use. An auto-will would be very handy for an investigator-type.
If scum had bonus kills, why did JC die on night 1?
I guessyour idea of a paranoid gun owner is still a possibility. From Night 1 I’ve been working on a theory that OaOW was a third-party or Town paranoid gun owner who offed JC due to a turn 1 investigation; he can’t be a Town one, but Iguess he could still have the paranoid gun owner thing along with being a Serial Killer, or he could be a 3rd party “keep away from me” type and Scum could have extra night kills. But SK and scum still looks the most likely to me.
@ Tom, thanks. I’m probably just reading too much into the color again. The mention of “exactly 8 hours ago” and the “overpriced auto-will” got the better of me…
Vote Count:
Tilty (2): USCD, Guiri
Norma (2): OaOW, Allwalker
AllWalker (1): Norma
[/QUOTE]
It is just color.
I’m inclined to believe OAOW’s claim due to the breadcrumb he mentioned. It seems safe enough to assume he does in fact have an investigation result on Boozy, which should pretty much rule out the PFK idea. He could theoretically be Scum making use of Cat’s results. I think the following two things would both need to be true for that to be reasonable
– there is no SK. In this case Jimmy died from some ability that has not been revealed, which implies we do have a different sort of third party still lurking about. (As no one has claimed any ability which could account for it.) In that case some other Scum killed Jpei (and possibly Texcat), while Jimmy died due to his investigation. But Scum should know very well who he was investigating, and there’s been no sign of them trying to force a third-party claim from anyone, nor did they choose to use their roleblocker to try again on Night Two. I think it’s long odds, long enough that forget point two. I think there is a SK, and OAOW is not it, which almost certainly means he’s not Scum either. I don’t give him long odds for surviving the Night.
As regards the SK, I know there was some discussion on Day Two and Three about SK vs. Vig – it’s possible there’s a clue in there somewhere, if the SK felt the need to speak up on the topic.
I think this is the early SK or Vig? discussion, from Day 3. Only AllWalker and Normal, of the plausible SKs, weighed in:
1618 Chronos thinks killer is probably vig.
1621 AllWalker agrees with Chronos.
1634 Alka thinks could be vig or sk trying to look like vig
1637 Tom Scud thinks it was a vig
1640 Normal isn’t sure, but thinks it was an SK killing talkative players
1641 Drain Bead thinks town roleblocker means probable SK
There was some Day 2 discussion as well, but not much of interest, really. USCDiver and others making the reasonable case that we didn’t have enough information to get much out of the pattern of deaths, and Allwalker in this post raising the possibility that TexCat had tried to recruit scum. (Guiri had earlier speculated that TexCat had tried to recruit a paranoid gun owner or similar role).
[url=“http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11673730&postcount=1636”]This as far as I can tell is USCDiver’s only post on “vig or sk?” and he comes down firmly on the side of “i dunno”.
NETA: This is actually a clickable link dammit.
Anyway, to summarize, of our four possible SKs, Normal thought there was an SK, AllWalker thought there was a vig, USCDiver was agnostic, and tiltawhirl didn’t comment.
Which doesn’t really get us very far.
I think that first link makes it more likely that AllWalker is SK over Scum, if I’m right about his motives wrt my role, and the inconsistencies in his role claim. The first two SK kills were plausible if slightly unusual vig kills. It’s possible a third attempt was as well, if Daphne managed a block on the same night she was killed.* The night after that was either Alka or Gryff (if the tiara was a protective item) – the former could definitely have passed as a vig attempt. It’s really only the most recent Night’s deaths (either Boozy or Gryff) that are solid evidence it was not a vig. (Well, that and the lack of a vig claim, but you know what I mean.) So certainly on Day Two a SK who had been lucky enough to off a Scum might still have been thinking he might have a chance to pass as vig, and would have at least been tempted to promote the possibility.
The post where AllWalker agreed with Chronos is suggestive: (bolding mine)
That is exactly the impression a SK would want to leave if he was still hoping to pass for Vig in a crunch, and AllWalker is the only person to bring it up.
Not enough to vote for him in itself, but it does give context to my original suspicions.
NETA: Sorry, I meant Day Three up there.
BTW, I’m obviously not going to put down a vote today. I’d like to put one down tomorrow some time, so long as at least a few parties have been heard from.