Just wanted to let everyone know that my husband is out of town, so my participation level has been low and may continue to be low. I’m reading, but don’t have much time for major analysis and posting. I’m a bit stymied as to what to do toDay. I am WIFOMing the Bomb claim all to hell. Clearly it’s the most dangerous lynch at this point, but that’s only if the claim is true. If it’s not true, he’ll skate once we get to LyLo, and we’ll lose. This is about the only time we COULD run that risk, unless we’re successful in getting Scum or a SK with this lynch. Does that make sense?
My other inclination is to test tiltawhirl out. My admittedly flimsy rationale is that tilt has never been playing like someone who is essentially a VT with a get-out-of-lynch-free card. If my mislynch wouldn’t technically hurt Town at all, I’d be playing even more balls-to-the-wall than I have been. tilt has been playing all game like someone trying their best to fly under the radar, which doesn’t match the stated role. And if we lynch tilt and we’re wrong, it doesn’t hurt as much as being wrong about someone else, because he’ll at least for the time being still be alive.
Reading Drain’s post clarified my thoughts. I don’t believe Normal’s bomb role. Taking a basic parinoid gun owner and making it more antitown seems to be more evilish then anything else that Pede has used, at least that’s been verified. It is also the perfect place for a scum to hide since it explains the lack of being Night killed and makes the town fearful of lynching him.
Vote Normal Phase
I am slightly worried about Normal telling the truth but I think we need to try and control who is the last vote not shy away from lynching him.
I’m not sure I’m feeling the Normal lynch, but I think if we do it, we should use the OaOW plan. And I’m thinking AllWalker is the logical guy to set off the bomb, since I find it hard to believe that Town would have two anti-night-kill powers.
Well, sure. But with all of these killing roles and blocking roles and counter roles, maybe mine was a last minute add to balance the game. I mean, it could have been a choice between a Toughguy or 2 more Vanilla Towns, and figured it was better to keep the numbers low. But that’s trying to peer into the mind of Mod.
Honestly? I don’t know how to draw attention to myself. The only idea that came to me is to pretend to breadcrumb, as if I were a Cop, but this is a risky play - if I breadcrumb a Scum as Town then a) the Scum would know I’m full of crap, and b) if Town found out they were Scum I would look suspicious. So, I’ve played like how I’ve always played.
As for the Vig vs SK debate,
Well, obviously not - the quote in your post shows me agreeing with Chronos. But I had good reason for thinking that we had a Vig on our hands - look back at the NKs for the first couple of Nights. Early on in the game we had a few semiconfirmed players - if there was a SK they would have been targeting them, but instead either they or they Scum were picking off unconfirmed targets seemingly at random. The JC kill came out of the blue, and that certainly wasn’t a Scum Kill. It really looked like there was a compulsory Vig who was hunting for Scum with little to go on.
I was referring to the bolded part – pointing out that the “vig” was likely compulsory. It’s a fairly logical thing to say, but it also advances the interests of a SK who wants to keep open the possibility of passing himself off as a vig, and you were the only person to mention it.
Oh okay, I suppose I was, but surely any Vig who uses their killing powers on Nights 1 and 2 would be compulsory? I can’t imagine myself ever using it that soon - who is sure enough to place a vote with confidence that early in the game, let alone a NK? That was my thinking, at least.
Like I said, it’s fairly logical. You’re still the only one out of about 20 players who felt the need to point it out.
This is the last thing I’m going to say about my role as such. I know it’s a tough role for Town to cope with. But this particular situation is about as easy as it gets. Everyone talking about it seems agreed that if I am lying, I am almost certainly NOT a bomb at all. So if you think I am Scum or SK, VOTE me. I won’t complain. I might think you’re Scum (but that’s not my problem anymore, once I’m dead), but I won’t complain. What I will complain about is people voting me when they do not really think I’m Scum or SK, just out of nervousness about the role. All you’re going to accomplish thereby is taking out Town (me) in the service of reducing that uncertainty. It’s not worth it.
I don’t know how many days we’re likely to have left, but Oredigger can give me the Music Box if he wants. That forces Scum to deal with me if they are able; and if they’re not, it stands at least a chance of confirming me before it comes down to final 3 or 4. I’m not sure if it’s the best use of the Music Box, but it might be a decent one.
I’ve been thinking through what would happen if I gave the box to scum; it has a built in two Day delay on the handshake but a scum could probably stretch that to a three Day delay by forgetting. Also we don’t know that the box doesn’t always say that X is town so it might inadvertently confirm scum since it tells you what message you’re passing on. Basically I’ve been thinking that I need to give it to scum because unless we’re wrong about what the box does it’ll do more to help catch scum then to confirm town with the delay.
That being said I’d be willing to unvote you and pass you the box toNight.
Well, now I’m divided. I think a lynch of Normal Phase only makes sense if we orchestrate it properly. I’m still very suspicious of tiltawhirl, but unfortunately even if we confirm that her role claim was valid by lynching her, we still can’t confirm her alignment. She would also be a good candidate to pass along the Music Box to.
Well, I guess everyone except tilt has at least placed a vote (though Digger unvoted).
I think we really need to work on getting rid of the SK - 2 kills a night is just killing us. Out of the 4 besides OaOW and the 4 he cleared, I am most suspicious of USCDiver, for reasons I’ve gone into before, and AllWalker, basically because of his claim and the case Normal has put forward. tilt is severely tempting me to try out her claim with yet another day of not much activity, but I still basically think she’s Town. I also generally think Normal is probably Town, and her play has definitely not been SK-like, so despite her suspicious claim, and since no one else has voted Diver, I’m going to
Great, a three-way tie. Well, I’ve already decided what I’m going to do with Normal so that leaves; creating a four way tie, voting off the reservation and leaving the three-way, or breaking this thing. I guess a tie isn’t that bad since we put a known town in charge but that just means that a vote for anyone besides Normal, or Tilt is a vote for Allwalker and I don’t plan on voting for Normal again. Basically I need to decide between tilt and Allwalker.
The case against Allwalker basically boils down to advocating a “scummy” plan, not using his role correctly, and some comments about the likelihood of a vig vs. a SK. While the case against Tilt is basically “Hey, testable power, lets go for it”. Of the two I think the Allwalker case has more meet but the potential downside to Tilt’s lynch is virtually zero.
I think Normal might be scum, we’ll find out for sure in two Days but they have as much of a need to kill third party as the town does and I’m pretty sure that Tom’s town. I think DB is probably town but I don’t really have a read on Guiri. I think that between the cases and the people who believe in them the Allwalker case is slightly better.
Wait a minute. You never went into any reasons. The best you could come up with Yesterday were #2300 and #2312
Don’t try to pass off your suspicions like you made some great case and are going back to it again. You’ve never actually stated a reason for suspecting me and stated is was my job to prove your gut is wrong!
Are you saying that you’re sending him the Music Box?
Well, I have a one off vote. I’m vanilla town and not afraid of death. Assuming Guiri and DB leave their votes, I’m willing to move my vote to Normal tomorrow afternoon to avoid a tie. We know right now which way the tie-break would go, so I’ll defer to the group’s judgement.
Fine. I’m suspicious of you because you’ve done fuck-all to actually find scum or confirm Town so far. If Guiri flips scum that’ll change, but of course Guiri is not a candidate for Serial Killer.