Screamers Mafia

The Game Room
2621

Normal is almost certainly not scum. Not only tilt’s helpful phrase above, which after all could have been WIFOM material once tilt had already realized she was screwed, but also because Normal started the wagon on AllWalker. I tried to game out how the two-scum-teams thing could work, but I can’t think why Scum Team 2 would have gone for amrussell over the Bling Brothers on night 2, even if Cat and Chronos were on the same team and chose to block/kill the doc instead of Alka. So I also don’t think Normal is a scum on the opposite side from tilt.

Normal could still be a SK but I don’t think the probability is high.

Others:

I still think Drain Bead is dead solid Town, mainly for her interaction with Chronos.

Oredigger looks very good for his vote on AllWalker, as well as his confirmation of me; if he had been scum he could very easily have reported that the music box didn’t re-record.

Oneandonly is either Town or an SK; I fully expect he’ll be confirmed-by-death tonight.

AllWalker looks quite bad. I suppose it’s possible he misread his PM and didn’t realize he was able to survive a lynch as well as a night-kill, but that’s not the way to bet.

USCDiver also doesn’t look so good, with his attempts to find anyone but AllWalker to put a vote on to close the day.

Guiri looks relatively good for his stated willingness to put his vote on AllWalker at the end of the day.

2622

(Nighttime haunting)

oooOOOOOoooohh
This game is fucked up…
OOOOOOoooooohhhh

(/haunt)

2623

Not sure. Going out for anniversary dinner tonight (4 years!), so I’ll see if it makes more sense in the morning.

2624

I only look bad if you think that **AllWalker **is a scum. **tiltawhirl **hiding behind a scum makes no sense whatsoever! Not to mention the fact that I was suspicious of **tiltawhirl **from the minute she made her claim. Now if you think that **AllWalker **is a SK that **tiltawhirl **mistakenly hid behind then he does look bad, but that shouldn’t extend to me unless you think I was somehow aware that he was SK and I was in cahoots with him. I suppose one could interpret my offer to sacrifice myself on **Normal’s **lynch as an attempt to save AllWalker, but I can honestly say it wasn’t anything close to that. I was trying to avoid a tie (no matter the game mechanics, it is still not a good idea) and saving the Town from another potential mislynch Tomorrow.

2625

Going into a bit more detail on the two-scum-teams possibility, which seems fairly far-fetched to me, but frankly if things are as they appear, Town has this game sealed up, so looking at long-shots seems reasonable:

Teams would be

Team 1: Jimmy (investigator), tilt (hider), and a vanilla
Team 2: Cat (investigator with gold), Chronos (roleblocker), and a vanilla

Night 1: Team 1, figuring peeker is probably self-protecting, goes after super-active Townie guy Jimmy. Team 2, seeing Boozy’s promise to lynch peeker as well as the suggestion to vig him, decides to block him and kill near-confirmed Town jpei.

Night 2: Team 1 counts on Team 2 blocking and killing peeker. They decide that they can afford to pretend to be a vig and kill off amrussell. Team 2 blocks and kills peeker

Night 3: Either both teams kill Daphne, or she blocks Team 2’s designated killer, who is going after Alka.

Night 4: Either both teams try to kill Gryff and are blocked by his Tiara, or one goes for Gryff and the other for Alka, to be blocked and to arrive too late.

Night 5: One team goes for Gryff, the other for Boozy. How do they coordinate? They don’t; they just get lucky.

So I don’t really buy my Night 2 narration. If it IS accurate, team 1’s vanilla looks like Diver; Team 2’s vanilla still probably isn’t Normal or Drain, so even in the two-team case Normal looks pretty solidly non-Scum.

2626

No. tilt would have been telling people on the scum board who she was hiding behind. Even if she hadn’t been, when AllWalker came under threat, she certainly would have raised the Scum Alert.

2627

What’s the over/under that we’ve eliminated all the Scum and are now only searching for the SK? I can’t find a copy of JSexton’s formula for guidance, but does a SK reduce the number of scum needed to balance? I’m sure that all the Pro-town roles tips the balance toward Town, except I’m not sure how all the Scum roles fit together.

2628

Holy crap.

Well, that was not what I was expecting at all.

Okay, so my Role PM says that I am lucky enough to survive one attack. Although it doesn’t specifically say NK, I can’t see how a lynch could be interpreted as an “attack”.

In short, I have no idea what just happened. I have fully disclosed my role and have not received any Gryff items or anything, so I am really confused. As pleasant a surprise as it was to find that a) I am still alive and b) a Scum was dead, I don’t think that is going to last. I can’t blame you - it looks really damn weird what just happened. But I am not Scum, and I am not SK, I’m just a confused Townie.

2629

Apparently the mods DO interpret a lynch as an “attack” - tilt obviously interpreted her power as giving her immunity to lynches, probably as clarified by the mods via PM, and died when AllWalker was lynched. I actually believe this explanation, mainly because I don’t see why AllWalker would have lied in his claim about something like this and I can see why he would have been confused.

Which doesn’t confirm his alignment, or his non-SK-ness. But I don’t think “lynch the liar” is in order, either.

2630

4 scum out of 24 seems low, even with an SK, especially with the number of Town roles. Though the scum have had powerful roles.

Might be worth thinking about if there’s only 1 night kill.

2631

For those of you who say that’s not how a Hider role works, I think it worked as advertised in this game. Otherwise, tilt would not have come up with that role claim. Remember, all it had to do was buy a couple more Days. In retrospect, after parsing it all out in my head, I’m extremely glad I switched my vote.

And as for tilt’s comment regarding Normal, I don’t take that as proof that Normal is Town, or AllWalker isn’t. Remember, we HAD to kill Normal or tilt in order for tilt to live. So tilt was hoping that we’d either kill him and “confirm” him, or kill Normal and either take out a Bomb (good result for him) or a SK (also a good result). I think what it might say is that Normal and tilt are not on the same Scum team, but if Normal is vanilla scum and tilt is not, it may have been worth it to attempt to sacrifice Normal to give tilt a bit more Townie cred and still have a living Hider. So I don’t think we should be too quick to let anyone off the hook after this.

2632

The thing that most powerfully suggests to me that Normal is not Scum (or at least not on the same Scum team as tilt) is that she started the wagon on AllWalker, at a time when she had several plausible places to place a vote.

2633

You’re probably right about that. And I’m not sure if there’s more than one Scum team (although it’s possible, with the two Model 5s coming up dead), because it appears that Alka Seltzer was telling the truth about the berynium holders. I think the idea that someone came up with about how Cat might have been able to assume the identity and role of a dead scum teammate was more plausible than two teams.

But Normal could still be the SK, too. We don’t know, and I think writing off Normal as “probably not Scum” is fine…but “probably not Scum” =/= Town.

2634

We haven’t yet definitively ruled out that one of cias/jimmy was town aligned. I am not sure how much credence to give that particular theory, but feel it would be unwise for us to ignore it entirely.

2635

I do now think that tilt must have been a hide-in-advance sort of role akin to what’s been speculated on so far. It makes the most sense of the evidence despite it being atypical to my experience.

I’m also left thinking that AllWalker was telling more or less the truth regarding his mis-read of his role (that is, he didn’t realize he could survive a lynch); however, I also still think he is most likely to be the serial killer. SK+bulletproof is not farfetched as a possibility – it counterbalances somewhat the necessary “survivor” aspect of a SK role, which is hard enough even to make work even without a bomb in the game. I’ll have to think it over some more, but I’m still leaning that way.

There’s also something I remembered trying to re-think Day One late last night: AllWalker is the person who made the ambiguous “I am Town aligned” statement. He quickly corrected himself once challenged, and did not appear too fussed about it, but it is again there. Like pointing out the likely compulsory nature of our “vig”, it is a small thing, but something only he did out of everyone in the game.

2636

Actually, Alka Seltzer also made an ambiguous statement like that. Which doesn’t weaken your point, of course.

2637

Just a quick check to make sure I’m understanding the Hider role correctly:

Could the hider hide with any player, or only a teammate?

I think the role only makes sense if it’s any player, but hey if the mods want to hand us a scum I have no problem with that, either.

2638

All right, I think there are 3 possible scenarios (assuming OaOW and I end up dead in the morning):

1 - 4 town, 1 scum, 1 SK. Scum is a teammate of tilt’s, thus very likely not AllWalker, Normal, Oredigger, or Drain, which leaves USCDiver or possibly Guiri. SK is one of Diver, AllWalker, Normal. This is LyLo; if Town catches one of the killers it goes into the following day up 3-1 on the remaining killer, but if Town mislynches, the last day will be 1-1-1, which I think Town cannot win. (Or if everyone dies, does Town win? All threats to Town have been destroyed after all.) Probable strat: lynch Diver, hoping for a scum kill; if successful, set up an AllWalker vs. Normal Phase death match on the last day; either way, Town wins. If Diver flips Town, I think you have to lynch Guiri and hope that Normal is Town and Allwalker the SK, with an everyone-dies victory achieved by the bomb blowing up the serial killer.

2 - 3 town, 2 scum, 1 SK. Ouch. I don’t think Town can win this one. Scum would pretty much have to be Guiri and Diver, for all the good that does us. Lynch a scum and end up at 1 town, 1 scum, 1 SK; lynch the SK and scum win outright. Best plan for Town is to try and lynch the scum and hope the SK or scum go after each other instead of Town. (Or for an “everyone dies” victory).

3 - 2 scum teams. This gets complicated. Thinking about possible Scum team configurations, I think Cat and Chronos have to have been teammates, since otherwise it’s hard to explain why Alka wasn’t night killed. Also, Cat and Jimmy have to be on 2 different teams. This leaves 2 possible scum team configurations:

3a - A: Cat, Chronos, other B: Jimmy, tilt, other.

In this case, the remaining scum from team B has to be Guiri or USC; the remaining scum from team A is unlikely to be Normal or Drain, and hopefully Digger is confirmed; this leaves AllWalker, USC, or Guiri. USCDiver will be shocked to learn that I think lynching Diver first is also the way to go in this scenario.

3b - A: Cat, Chronos, tilt B: Jimmy, 2 others

I think this is unlikely since it’s a lot of power on one scum team; still, if Normal is a scum bomb that would go a ways to balance that out. In this case, the scum on team B could be pretty much anyone; pretty much all of my analyses of players as scum or town has been predicated on their relations with Cat, Chronos, or tilt. On the plus side, if this scenario is accurate there will be only 1 night kill from here on out so Town has an extra mislynch. (And in fact the numbers would be 5 town 2 scum, with probably OaOW still alive). This is the one case where I don’t think a Diver lynch is necessarily a good idea.

2639

Typically, hiders can hide behind any player.

2640

Well, hopefully they’ll double up on OAOW, or on you, in which case things are much less dire even if there is more than one Scum left. (I rate the likelihood at 1>2>0 – think USCDiver is being too optimistic for a 24 person game with SK.)