Screamers Mafia

[Tom_Scud]

Redoing my color coded vote lists, taking the liberty of coloring my own votes blue. Dunno if anything will fall out of this, but I figure what the hey.

Day 1 Final Vote

jpei (1): Freudian Slit
peekercpa(3): Gryph, Boozahol Squid, PI, Cold Phoenix (Scuba)
Drain Bead (2): USCDriver, CatInASuit
Bill MC(8): Jimmy Chitwood, Drain Bead, tiltawhirl, Alka Seltzer, Daphne Black, Allwalker, Texcat, jpei (Leader)
Boozahol Squid, PI(3): Bill MC, Thing Fish, Chronos
CatInASuit (2): amrussell, Tom Scud
Cold Phoenix (2): Oredigger, Guiri
Tom Scud(1): Peeker
Chronos(1): Normal Phase
(OaOW placed no end-of-day vote)

Day 2 final vote:
Gryff(1):
Daphne(3): Gryff, Drain Bead, Chronos
Freudian Slit(4): AllWalker, Tiltawhirl, Tom Scud, peeker
Thing Fish(7): amrussell, Boozy Squid, CiaS, Normal Phase, Scuba Ben, Thing Fish, Guiri
Peeker (1): Alka Seltzer

(Nonvoters included Oredigger, OaOW, Diver)

Day 3 final vote:
Chronos(9): Oredigger, USCDiver, Tiltawhirl, Gryff, DaphneBlack, DB, CatInASuit, OaOW, Boozy Squid
Drain Bead(6) : Tom Scud, Normalphase, Alka(leader), Chronos, Scuba_Ben, GuiriEnEspana
No vote: AllWalker
Daphne Black high-water, day 2: Daphne(5): Gryff, Oneandonly, Chronos, Drain Bead, Tiltawhirl

jpei high-water mark, day 1: jpeg (5): OAoW, TxtKitty, Alkaseltzer, DaffyBlk, GuyinSpain (Tom Scud and AllWalker later voted as his vote was trending downwards)

peeker highwater mark: Pecear(6): Tom Scad, Jimminy Chitwick, Gruff, Nook (now Gueri), Ting Phish, Miner77

Drain highwater mark (so to speak): The Dread Bean (8): amrussett, Abnormal Phase, Alka, DaphkneeBlack, Freudian Skit, Fenix (scuba), tiltawhirl, UPSDriver

Final Vote Count, day 5:

Scuba (5): DrainBead, AllWalker, Norma, Guiri, tilty
USCD (1): Gryff
Tilta (3): Scuba, Mr. Scud, USCD
Mr. Scud (1): OaOW (shifted to Tilt too late)
Guiri (1): Boozy Squid
No vote: Digger

Final Vote Count, Day 6:

Tilty (3): Guiri, tilty, USCD
Norma (2): OaOW, Allwalker
AllWalker (4): Norma, Tom (Leader), Digger, DB

[GuiriEnEspana]

@Tom_Scud

All right, I think there are 3 possible scenarios (assuming OaOW and I end up dead in the morning)

/snipped

This is useful information. The only problem is that I am not scum (or SK and I now have post where, if I were scum, I would have been breadcrumbing the role of one of my teammates and warning others to beware of Tilta) so, let’s say you believe me, what are the alternatives? Only USC can be scum from the remaining players? That would mean only option 1 is possible as Jimmy’s ghoulish post would indicate that scum is in a pretty awful state and his team is not practically intact (option 3b).

So, in order for options 2 and 3a to be possible, we need one more scum. Are there really no other options apart from USC? I understand your reasoning why OaOW is more likely to be the SK than scum but is “scum would never do that” always true?. We know Digger has confirmed you, based on the altered message from the music box but what would he have done if he were scum, pretend he never received it?

[Normal_Phase]

Urgh, don’t go taking impressions from dead Scum’s comments. That way lies madness.

[Tom_Scud]

@GuiriEnEspana

/snipped

This is useful information. The only problem is that I am not scum (or SK and I now have post where, if I were scum, I would have been breadcrumbing the role of one of my teammates and warning others to beware of Tilta) so, let’s say you believe me, what are the alternatives? Only USC can be scum from the remaining players? That would mean only option 1 is possible as Jimmy’s ghoulish post would indicate that scum is in a pretty awful state and his team is not practically intact (option 3b).

So, in order for options 2 and 3a to be possible, we need one more scum. Are there really no other options apart from USC? I understand your reasoning why OaOW is more likely to be the SK than scum but is “scum would never do that” always true?. We know Digger has confirmed you, based on the altered message from the music box but what would he have done if he were scum, pretend he never received it?

Well, I’m assuming OaOW is dead tomorrow. If he’s still alive, it’s for one of 3 reasons:

1 - he’s the Serial Killer
2 - the SK is trying to dupe us into mislynching OaOW (risky!)
3 - there are two scum teams, and the scum have all made accurate role (but not alignment) claims. In this case, OaOW could be scum, or the scum could be trying to set him up.

OreDigger could have claimed that the box didn’t re-record. I’d mentioned the possibility a few times, and it’s not a hard thing to think of, either.

[One_And_Only_Wanderers]

In what scenario could I be SK and also have correctly bread crumbed Boozy’s role?

[Tom_Scud]

@One_And_Only_Wanderers

In what scenario could I be SK and also have correctly bread crumbed Boozy’s role?

Point. You could still be a teammate of Cat’s on Scum Team B, though.

[Tom_Scud]

@Tom_Scud

3b - A: Cat, Chronos, tilt B: Jimmy, 2 others

I think this is unlikely since it’s a lot of power on one scum team; still, if Normal is a scum bomb that would go a ways to balance that out. In this case, the scum on team B could be pretty much anyone; pretty much all of my analyses of players as scum or town has been predicated on their relations with Cat, Chronos, or tilt. On the plus side, if this scenario is accurate there will be only 1 night kill from here on out so Town has an extra mislynch. (And in fact the numbers would be 5 town 2 scum, with probably OaOW still alive). This is the one case where I don’t think a Diver lynch is necessarily a good idea.

Also, in this case there’s enough time for Normal to use the music box; the other possible scenarios, not so much.

[Tom_Scud]

BTW, i should mention that I think scenarios 2 and 3 (a-b) are much less likely than scenario 1 (1 scum, 1 SK).

[Normal_Phase]

OAOW – Regarding his breadcrumb: SK with investigation or bonus info akin to Alka? Not high on my likelihood list. I’d believe he was Scum making a super-risky gambit along with Oredigger (or gambling on Oredigger being vanilla) before that.

Oredigger – I’m not as confident about him yet as Tom is. If he’s Scum, he might risk confirming Tom for maximum credibility then pass on the the music box to a teammate to “confirm” him in turn. Not at the top of my likelihood list either, but it can’t yet be ruled out.

Drain Bead – The biggest thing I think Drain Bead has going for her in terms of not being Scum is her reaction to Chronos’ lie detector post on Day One. Given that the topic was brought up by Scum, for her to buck the trend of compliance even slightly is unexpected, to say the least. That’s not to say it’s impossible. Also speaking well for her is her sharp and fast reaction against Tom when he made his “slip” about saving Chronos. That was damn fast and bold thinking, if she’s Scum. But there are arguments against her as well. I still think her suspicion against Chronos over the first couple of days tended to come and go a bit; and of course there’s her suicide offer when a Scum roleblocker was up against her for the lynch. I still think she’s unlikely Scum, given everything taken together, but I wouldn’t characterize it as “rock solid”.

Guiri – I’d feel a lot more comfortable about him if he had actually been forced to follow through on his promise to vote for AllWalker. He did put himself in a position of perhaps needing to put up or shut up down the line, so it’s better than nothing, but it’s not quite there.

Diver – When did you start thinking Guiri was Scum?

[USCDiver]

@Normal_Phase

Diver – When did you start thinking Guiri was Scum?

He showed up on my radar in the post I quoted in #976

[Tom_Scud]

@Normal_Phase

Drain Bead – I still think she’s unlikely Scum, given everything taken together, but I wouldn’t characterize it as “rock solid”.

She’s almost certainly not a teammate of tilt’s, to say the least; her vote was the one that swung yesterday’s lynch when she wouldn’t have taken any heat if she had kept it where it was.

[Tom_Scud]

@Normal_Phase

Oredigger – I’m not as confident about him yet as Tom is. If he’s Scum, he might risk confirming Tom for maximum credibility then pass on the the music box to a teammate to “confirm” him in turn. Not at the top of my likelihood list either, but it can’t yet be ruled out.

Bear in mind Digger’s said he’s going to pass the box to you.

[Normal_Phase]

@Tom_Scud

She’s almost certainly not a teammate of tilt’s, to say the least; her vote was the one that swung yesterday’s lynch when she wouldn’t have taken any heat if she had kept it where it was.

Bah! Thank you. You’re right, then.

[Normal_Phase]

@USCDiver

He showed up on my radar in the post I quoted in #976

I guess I’m more getting at – do you have any evidence you acted on any suspicion you had at any point prior to the Day that just ended?

I should just look for myself.
@ Tom –

My inbox remains empty at this point, so it appears he has not yet made his decision (or acted on it, at any rate).

[Tom_Scud]

Normal - you won’t actually receive it until the morning.

[Normal_Phase]

Ah, didn’t know. Thanks.

[USCDiver]

@Normal_Phase

I guess I’m more getting at – do you have any evidence you acted on any suspicion you had at any point prior to the Day that just ended?

I’m not sure what you’re asking. I expressed my suspicion of him several times, but two prior Days ended with lynching **Chronos **and then CIAS (both of which I was a part of). So I don’t feel bad about going after bigger fish. Yesterday I had a chance to back up my suspicions with a vote and I did until I found someone I felt was acting scummier.

Look at the voting record. I’ve ended the Day voting for scum Day 3, 4, 5, and 6. **Guiri **has been part of the lynch of Townies Day 2 and 5. And has only ended the Day voting for Scum twice (the inevitable **CIAS **lynch and Yesterday’s **tiltawhirl **fiasco which actually would have helped save scum.)

[Drain_Bead]

None of that is a defense to being the SK. The SK lynch votes the same as a VT.

[Tom_Scud]

None of the three should be ruled out as a potential SK.

[USCDiver]

If you think I’m a serial killer then there’s nothing much I can say about that. I’m still mainly concerned with eliminating Scum.