Screamers Mafia

[Normal_Phase]

@ Diver: I think Day Five is your best argument for being not-Scum. Days Four and Six are undermined for the same reasons as they’re undermined for Guiri, and being fifth vote for Chronos after a couple of people who hadn’t voted yet had also expressed suspicion isn’t the strongest argument. I’ve said before that I think Guiri’s late vote for Drain Bead that day is pretty much a null tell, given the circumstances.

But even Day Five – given what we now know, tilta wasn’t actually in any danger that Day, given she wasn’t hiding behind Scuba Ben. I don’t think that helps you. I’m going to have to look at other things.

[Tom_Scud]

@Tom_Scud

peeker highwater mark: Pecear(6): Tom Scad, Jimminy Chitwick, Gruff, Nook (now Gueri), Ting Phish, Miner77

BTW, this is one of the things that still makes me a bit suspicious of Guiri: Early on Day 1, if you’re on the scum team and you see a chance at lynching peeker (who really is a dangerous player) early, do you resist the temptation to have more than one scum jump on the wagon? Obviously, Guiri can’t tell us what Nanook was thinking with this vote, and obvsly I think it was a reasonable case at the time. But there it is.

[Tom_Scud]

NETA: come to think, Allwalker should be on that wagon somewhere for his unofficial vote.

[Tom_Scud]

@Normal_Phase

OAOW – Regarding his breadcrumb: SK with investigation or bonus info akin to Alka? Not high on my likelihood list. I’d believe he was Scum making a super-risky gambit along with Oredigger (or gambling on Oredigger being vanilla) before that.

Oredigger volunteered to be blocked by Daphne at one point; kind of a soft-claim of vanilla.

[Normal_Phase]

Re: Guiri’s day one Peeker vote, yep. And emphasized a bit by where his vote wound up, which, while I think it was a reasonable one, is nevertheless conspicuous in retrospect by its avoidance of all other known Scum locations. I’ll have to look at the timing of that one, maybe.

(As an aside, let me add a totally gratuitous and posthumous peeker-snuggling: I think he’s a VERY good player. If often indecipherable.)

Re: Oredigger & OAOW – OK, noted.

[GuiriEnEspana]

I didn’t vote Peeker on Day 1, Nanook did. When I joined I asked the mods to keep the vote as it was until I managed to read the thread so far.

Jimmy, of all people, poked me for my reasoning for keeping the vote there and I promptly unvoted!

[Tom_Scud]

Right, Guiri, but you’re on the same team as Nanook, in much the same way as Ben was on the same team as Cold Phoenix.

[Tom_Scud]

A small point in favor of there still being 2 scum alive (whether on one team or two): we’ve seen Models 3, 4, and 5 (twice), but no 1s or 2s. Though maybe Cat was initially a Model 1 or 2 before he morphed into a Model 5.

[Tom_Scud]

BTW, I went back and checked and I’ve apparently voted for 13 players so far in this game.

[USCDiver]

@Tom_Scud

A small point in favor of there still being 2 scum alive (whether on one team or two): we’ve seen Models 3, 4, and 5 (twice), but no 1s or 2s. Though maybe Cat was initially a Model 1 or 2 before he morphed into a Model 5.

I wouldn’t read too much into the Model numbers. If my interpretation of the Wiki article on the original movie is correct the Model 1 and probably Model 2 screamers would not be able to pass themselves off as human enough to hide amongst us. It was the later models that developed that ability.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

Daylight started to broach the town. Most of the residents awoke in their own houses. One member, Oredigger, had decided to go off and work through the night, despite the danger that such behavior usually entails. And, as expected, it did not go well. Whichever being had killed him had at least the courtesy of depositing his head in the mass grave, and had etched YOU TRAITORS YOU TRAITORS YOU TRAITORS YOU TRAITORS YOU TRAITORS etc. into his torso. His limbs were not found.

Oredigger, an ordinary townsperson (Vanilla Town), is dead.

Leader chosen Sunday, 4:45 EST.

[GuiriEnEspana]

Bye OreDigger77!

Not sure why you were the target but only 1 death is great news!!!

Is it possible it’s now Town vs. SK only?

OaOW, any news?

[GuiriEnEspana]

Oh, NETA Elect Tom

[Oredigger77]

Interesting, oh well. Go Town!

[Tom_Scud]

I think this means no SK and two scum teams; I can’t come up with a reason a Serial Killer would leave OaOW alive. (Well, unless he’s a Godfather Serial Killer, which seems pretty Gastardly to me).

elect Me

[Tom_Scud]

@Tom_Scud

3 - 2 scum teams. This gets complicated. Thinking about possible Scum team configurations, I think Cat and Chronos have to have been teammates, since otherwise it’s hard to explain why Alka wasn’t night killed. Also, Cat and Jimmy have to be on 2 different teams. This leaves 2 possible scum team configurations:

3a - A: Cat, Chronos, other B: Jimmy, tilt, other.

In this case, the remaining scum from team B has to be Guiri or USC; the remaining scum from team A is unlikely to be Normal or Drain, and hopefully Digger is confirmed; this leaves AllWalker, USC, or Guiri. USCDiver will be shocked to learn that I think lynching Diver first is also the way to go in this scenario.

I still think this is basically sound; OaOW could be on team A (and taken his Boozy investigation result from Cat); he couldn’t be on team B because Jimmy died before he could investigate. I think.

3b - A: Cat, Chronos, tilt B: Jimmy, 2 others

I think this is unlikely since it’s a lot of power on one scum team; still, if Normal is a scum bomb that would go a ways to balance that out. In this case, the scum on team B could be pretty much anyone; pretty much all of my analyses of players as scum or town has been predicated on their relations with Cat, Chronos, or tilt. On the plus side, if this scenario is accurate there will be only 1 night kill from here on out so Town has an extra mislynch. (And in fact the numbers would be 5 town 2 scum, with probably OaOW still alive). This is the one case where I don’t think a Diver lynch is necessarily a good idea.

I think it’s possible we’re in either of the two scenarios - either the two scum teams both picked Oredigger, or the one remaining team did for whatever reason. I think the fact that it’s Oredigger and not me that’s dead points to 2 teams; I can see both of them saying “well, I think the other scum are going to kill Tom so I’ll kill Oredigger instead, and hopefully 2 more confirmed townies go down”

[Tom_Scud]

State of play

Alive:
**Normal Phase **- Town Bomb (kills night-killer or last lynch voter, unconfirmed)
USCDiver - Vanilla Town (unconfirmed)
Allwalker - Town Tough Guy (survives one kill, unconfirmed but did survive one kill)
GuirienEspana - Vanilla Town (role but not alignment confirmed by OaOW)
Drain Bead - Vanilla Town (role but not alignment confirmed by OaOW)
Tom Scud - Vanilla Town (alignment semi-confirmed by Oredigger and music box, role confirmed by OaOW)
One and Only - role cop (unconfirmed but successfully breadcrumbed Boozy’s role)

Dead Town:
Scuba_Ben - Vanilla Town
BillMC - Vanilla Town
TexCat - Prostitute (Town Recruiting Mason)
jpei - Head Miner (Town Governor)
Thing Fish - Town Bodyguard
amrussell, Ordinary Wife (Vanilla Town)
peekercpa, the Field Medic (Doc-in-Training/Backup Doc)
Freudian Slit, Town Jailor
Daphne, Bartender (Town Roleblocker/weak role cop)
Boozahol Squid, PI - Megacorp Regional Manager (Town Politician)
Gryph - General Store Manager
Oredigger77 - Vanilla Town

Dead Scum:
CatinaSuit - Model 5 (Screamer Investigator) (speculated was a Head Screamer)
Jimmy Chitwood - Model 5 (Screamer Investigator).
Chronos, Screamer Roleblocker, Model 2
tiltawhirl - Screamer Model 3, Hider

Skipped Town:
Alka Seltzer - Government Collector (Third Party Bling thief)

Unknown roles:
Serial Killer (or possibly not)
possibly 1 or 2 Screamers

Factual claims:
Oredigger said he was sending the music box to Normal.
OneAndOnly is not eligible to be leader
Day 1 Leader: AllWalker -> jpei (Town Power)
Day 2 Leader: Boozahol Squid, P.I.
Day 3 Leader: Alka Seltzer
Day 4 Leader: Boozy
Day 5 Leader: Tom Scud

Votes spoilered

Day 1 Final Vote

jpei (1): Freudian Slit
peekercpa(3): Gryph, Boozahol Squid, PI, Cold Phoenix
Drain Bead (2): USCDriver, CatInASuit
Bill MC(8): Jimmy Chitwood, Drain Bead, tiltawhirl, Alka Seltzer, Daphne Black, Allwalker, Texcat, jpei (Leader)
Boozahol Squid, PI(3): Bill MC, Thing Fish, Chronos
CatInASuit (2): amrussell, Tom Scud
Cold Phoenix (2): Oredigger, Guiri
Tom Scud(1): Peeker
Chronos(1): Normal Phase

Day 2 final vote:
Gryff(1):
Daphne(3): Gryff, Drain Bead, Chronos
Freudian Slit(4): AllWalker, Tiltawhirl, Tom Scud, peeker
Thing Fish(7): amrussell, Boozy Squid, CiaS, Normal Phase, Scuba Ben, Thing Fish, Guiri
Peeker (1): Alka Seltzer

Day 3 final vote:
Chronos(9): Oredigger, USCDiver, Tiltawhirl, Gryff, DaphneBlack, DB, CatInASuit, OaOW, Boozy Squid
Drain Bead(6) : Tom Scud, Normalphase, Alka(leader), Chronos, Scuba_Ben, GuiriEnEspana
No vote: AllWalker

Day 4 final vote:
Gueri (1): Cat
Cat (13): everyone else.

Day 5 final vote:

Scuba (5): DrainBead, AllWalker, Norma, Guiri, tilty
USCD (1): Gryff
Tilta (3): Scuba, Mr. Scud, USCD
Mr. Scud (1): OaOW
Guiri (1): Boozy Squid

Day 6 final vote:

Tilty (3): Guiri, tilty, USCD
Norma (2): OaOW, Allwalker
AllWalker (4): Norma, Tom (Leader), Digger, DB

[AllWalker]

Only 1 death. Double kill is possible, but it could be all the Scum are dead. A risky assumption to make, though - we can’t give up the hunt for Scum just yet.

Oh gtg. Will vote for leader if I have net access later today.

[Tom_Scud]

NETA: Actually, Tilt was a model 4, not that it matters.

[Tom_Scud]

A scenario for how there could still be a Serial Killer alive occurred to me:

OaOW is scum, and false-claimed; one of the people he “confirmed” as vanilla is actually a false-claiming SK.

Just to get as complete a list of scenarios as possible out there.