I did get the music box, for whatever that’s worth.
Will try to make some sense of last night on Monday.
Forgot: elect: Tom Scud
I don’t get your last comment, Tom.
Things keep bouncing around my head:
– OAOW is a SK with investigation, somehow (or just got amazingly lucky with a random comment about Boozy; or had info about Boozy in his PM), and Diver’s speculation was right and we’re out of Scum.
– Both Scum and SK hit Oredigger out of some misguided theory they could interrupt the passing of the Music Box to me.
– One of Scum/SK hit Oredigger, and the other refrained from killing in hopes of pulling off something or other.
My problem is I can’t think why any killer would target Oredigger at all at this point. He was not fully confirmed until I played the music box, right? Tom is more confirmed than that. OAOW is (was?) more confirmed than that and has a dangerous ability to boot. But neither killer targets either of you?
Okay, Monday.
OK. My thinking on OaOW and the SK:
a - If OaOW’s claim was legit, and there was an SK, that SK was in a group of three people (yourself, Allwalker, USCDiver), and pretty much had to kill OaOW last night. If not, either (a) OaOW fingers the SK this morning, or at best (from the SK’s point of view) he shrinks the SK’s pool to hide in to 2. Even if the SK manages to get OaOW mislynched today, after OaOW flips town, Town (or scum) have a 50% chance of killing the SK at random.
b - Even if OaOW’s claim was fake, if the SK was in that group of three, he couldn’t risk it and had to kill OaOW.
c - HOWEVER, if OaOW’s claim was fake, and the SK was one of the four who OaOW identified as vanilla, then the SK would be happy enough to let OaOW go on “narrowing the field” and causing more mislynches.
Or else there is no Serial Killer, and there are instead 2 teams of scum.
elect tom
Not that I want a leader who has expressed suspicion of me, but it’s better than a player who is less confirmed.
I keep going back to the Screamers movie entry on Wikipedia. The Model 3 screamer was disguised as a small child and essentially wiped out the Alliance home base. Is it possible **OAOW **is a Model 3 screamer (she has claimed a child role) whose role is essentially that of Serial Killer (ie anti-town, but not necessarily scum)? I’m not sure how to reconcile her investigation and bread crumbing though.
Hang on, let me go back and take a closer look at her role claim post… Ah here it is in #2454; she says “I’m a role cop, flavour is child pickpocket, my age is why I am ineligible to be leader. I am a poor orphan living on the streets after my parents were killed by screamers. I have to steal to survive. If i am successful in my thievery I can glean knowledge about the person I stole from as to their role, but not however their alignment” This pretty much matches the description of the first Model 3 screamer encountered. Note also that she says ‘if I’m successful in my thievery’ which implies a failure rate. Certainly it is possible her “investigations” after Night 1 have all been unsuccessful and ‘nothing’ should not necessarily be interpreted as “Vanilla” role. Is there a reason why **CIAS **as investigator couldn’t have dropped the investigation results to **OAOW **prior to his death?
Normal, can you confirm **Oredigger **now that you have the Music Box?
Drain Bead, you gave a name tag with my name to Boozy. Was there ever any indictation what that item did?
OAOW, what say you about last Night’s investigation?
OK guys,
I’m as surprised ot be here as any of you. I thought I was dead for sure myself last night. Figured it would be assumed that I would investigate Normal, so I thought the only chance I had of surviving was that Normal wasn’t the SK, so i wemnt for USC.
Vanilla
At least I have been reading no result as vanilla. As has been mentioned up stream, maybe what I am interpreting as vanilla is actually a failed inv.
Elect Tom Scud
Another potential idea–OAOW was using investigation results garnered from the Scum thread from Jimmy/Cat tto breadcrumb Boozy.
Another potential idea–Digger was killed because Normal really didn’t want that box.
Digger being Town confirms Tom for me–I see no scenario in which Tom could be anything but what Digger says he was.
elect Tom
Elect Tom
I’ve been bouncing this post around in my head for a while. I can’t see a scenario at this point where we have both Scum and a SK left, even if OAOW is one of them. There’s no way at this stage of the game that either of them would forego a kill, and there’s also no way that both of them would target Digger if there’s any chance OAOW is who he says he is. Imagine the scenarios. We have a Scum and a SK. If OAOW is the Scum, there’s no way the SK lets him live to potentially investigate him and report it. If OAOW is the SK…well, there’s no way the Scum lets him live to potentially investigate him, and there’s also the issue of how he managed to breadcrumb Boozy to contend with in that scenario.
I basically have no idea why OAOW lived that doesn’t involve us being down to one killing role left, and even then I’m surprised that the one killing role left OAOW alive.
I’ll be placing a vote for OAOW as soon as Tom is elected.
The other benefit to this, of course, is that on the off chance that OAOW is confirmed as Town by his death, we have a pile of confirmed Vanillas.
Leader Vote:
Tom (7): Guiri, Tom, Norma, Allwalker, OaOW, DB, USCD
Well, there is ONE possibility: you or Guiri are the serial killer. OaOW pops up with his list of investigations, and you go, “huh, ok, he’s scum”. But, you know, no skin off your nose if he goes on “investigating” everyone’s claims. So you decide to kill the less-confirmed townie on the theory that scum will kill the more-confirmed townie, as in me. And the scum make the same decision.
Still, an OaOW lynch and the subsequent night kills would go some way towards clarifying things.
Even in that scenario OAOW needs to die. I agree that Guiri could be the SK, and I think that if OAOW comes up Scum and we still have a game tomorrow, we should have Normal give the box to Guiri or me, not say which he gave it to until morning, and lynch the one who didn’t get the box.
Just saw Diver’s question. I had no idea what the tag did. I thought it might be an identifier or a redirector. I guess we will never know.
Possibilities:
1 - OaOW is scum, using a scum investigator’s results to breadcrumb. Possibilities include
(a) Two scum teams, with OaOW on the Cat/Chronos team, and either Guiri or Diver on the Jimmy/tilt team. Objection: would a scum team of 3 have two players (Cat and OaOW) who had a drawback exposing them to Town? Also, I still don’t see how two rival teams of scum would work with the flavor.
(b) Scum and Serial Killer; OaOW and possibly one other scum on the team, and either Drain or Guiri as the SK. It’s barely possible that Normal, AllWalker or Diver took an insane risk and left him alive for a turn; I don’t think that’s likely.
2 - OaOW is telling the truth. It would be insanely risky for an SK to leave him alive; also, the fact that he’s still alive would also indicate that our outstanding non-vanilla claims (AllWalker and Normal, basically) are true in terms of role information.
Pretty much the only way I can see this working is with 2 scum teams:
(a) A: Chronos, Cat, and one of (Guiri, USC, OaOW, AllWalker) B: Jimmy, tilt, (Guiri or USC)
(b) A: Chronos, Cat, tilt B: Jimmy, Normal, (pretty much anyone but AllWalker or OaOW).
In case (b) above, I think Normal basically has to be on team B because otherwise how could the two scum teams be balanced?
Damn. I was hoping that sorting the scenarios like that would point out a single consensus option that would split the difference, but instead they point in a number of different directions. OaOW looks like a not-bad lynch target; the other name that comes up as a suspect across multiple scenarios is Guiri.
My thoughts to add to today’s to-do list:
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Why did OaOW investigate USC and not Normal or AllWalker, the two main candidates yesterDay for SK? He suggested the double-kill plan for Normal, voted for her but then wasn’t curious to see if she really was the SK? I don’t understand why he had to assume Normal wasn’t the SK and, if he expected to be killed anyway, what did he have to lose by trying to confirm her or AllWalker’s role?
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Does anyone want to try to interpret the message on OreDigger’s torso? Who has been betrayed? As far as I can see only AllWalker would have reason to gripe (he went from being leader to being lynched).
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Tom, I recall from earlier the need to have a backup leader, as this is the first unanimous leader election, do you want to move your vote to someone else just in case?
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On Day 1, I think it was Tom and Peeker who got into an argument after someone said to expect 5/6 scum “all else being equal”. We know Alka was third party so with a SK as a second 3rd party, couldn’t 4 scum be about right?
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Tom, I’m not the SK either. I agree that a OaOW lynch would gve a lot of info but I don’t see why AllWalker suddenly gets forgotten about.
I actually covered this in my first (only) post so far today. Why are you ignoring that?
/snipped
@ OaOW, I wasn’t ignoring this post, I said I didn’t understand your reasoning for assuming Normal wasn’t the SK. How was that your only chance of surviving? Why USC over AllWalker?
Tom is leader.