As promised:
vote OAOW
So, the reason for investigating USC was this:
That explains why Normal wasn’t investigated, but why not investigate me, the guy so suspicious I was actually lynched?
Investigating me would have shown that I have been telling the truth, thus eliminating me as a candidate for lynching. Not investigating me keeps a level of suspicion of me, something an SK would be happy for.
In a word, j’accuse.
vote OaOW
J’agree!
vote OaOW
So. If we’re still going Tomorrow and OAOW is Town, this is how I predict the Town will look (sorry, Tom).
Normal Phase - Town Bomb (kills night-killer or last lynch voter, unconfirmed)
USCDiver - Vanilla Town (role but not alignment confirmed by OaOW)
Allwalker - Town Tough Guy (survives one kill, unconfirmed but did survive one kill)
GuirienEspana - Vanilla Town (role but not alignment confirmed by OaOW)
Drain Bead - Vanilla Town (role but not alignment confirmed by OaOW)
This puts us in a tenuous situation, to say the least. If OAOW is revealed as Town, I think that clears Guiri, me, and Diver as being the SK. Clearly the only thing we can do at that point is lynch Normal (provided the Box doesn’t confirm him), with AllWalker being the last vote. If Normal is telling the truth, our only other unconfirmed goes out with him. If he’s not, we win. Of course, if the box confirms Normal and OAOW is Town, we have to take out AllWalker.
The issue is if we’re right, and OAOW is Scum. Then the Town tomorrow will look like this:
Normal Phase - Town Bomb (kills night-killer or last lynch voter, unconfirmed)
USCDiver - Vanilla Town (unconfirmed)
Allwalker - Town Tough Guy (survives one kill, unconfirmed but did survive one kill)
GuirienEspana - Vanilla Town (unconfirmed)
Drain Bead - Vanilla Town (unconfirmed)
Our choice gets a bit hairier, because we have a pile of unconfirmed people. The music box at this point is of paramount importance. Normal HAS to give the box to someone who lives through the Night. If he doesn’t, I say he has to die. The question becomes who votes for him last? And if he does give the box to someone who can confirm him, who do we go for?
I was actually looking forward to reading the forbidden thread over the weekend.
Unfortuantely, the music box works slower than your plan would suggest, Drain. Normal won’t have the chance to record it until tonight; she won’t be able to send it until Tomorrow night; I’m not sure if the recipient can check the message immediately - I could tell when I got it first that it played “It’s a small world”, but Normal is indicating that she couldn’t hear Digger’s message yet, in which case the box is basically useless.
The Music Box is even slower than I thought. I was thinking it could confirm someone every other day, but it’s actually every three. (Right Tom? You’re the only other living person who’s dealt with this, and I’m not positive I’m reading the PM correctly.)
Last Night – box with recording of Oredigger is passed to me
Tonight – I play/record (able to “confirm” Oredigger tomorrow)
Tomorrow Night – I pass the Box to someone
Night after that – Someone plays/records
Next Day – Someone can confirm me
I can’t be confirmed until two Days from now, if I manage to out-guess the Scum as regards who the box is going to, and a lot of other things go right (or should I say wrong, given hopefully we win before then).
We’re at how many players left today? Me, Drain, Tom, Diver, Guiri, AllWalker, OAOW. If (big if? I’m not sure) it’s two dead per cycle, then two Days from now is 3 left. I’m assuming that 1:1 me vs Scum is a Scum victory based on the usual numbers requirement (not positive that would be true if it was me vs SK). It’s a bit of a long shot me giving the music box to Town who doesn’t wind up dead by that point, but there is a chance it could come in handy if it comes down to that, which is what I wanted. There’s no use in me giving it to anyone else tonight, though – there would be no recording from me and no time to confirm anyone else.
Tom, regarding your two-Scum-team hypothesis: why Cat and Chronos together in all of the options?
Crosspost: Correct, I can’t hear anything yet. Not quite useless – it has a chance to come in handy in a 2-on-1 endgame scenario. But it’s not exactly a sure thing.
NETA to my second-to-last post: It’s not every three nights; it’s every two. Just delayed more than I was thinking.
Because as soon as Alka came out with his role claim, Cat had to know that he was a danger to him. That gives you two nights of kills between when Alka outed himself and Cat was lynched; the first night, peeker is blocked and killed and amrussell is killed; the second, Daphne is killed.
By this hypothesis, Cat and Chronos decide that the doc needs to die first, and do a block/kill that night. The second night, probably Daphne got lucky and caught the scum killer from the Cat/Chronos team who targeted Alka. (Or for some reason the Cat team decided Daphne was more of a threat but I doubt it).
In the meantime, on night 2, the other scum team, knowing that there’s a scum roleblocker out there, assumes that peeker is dead and decides to pretend to be a vig for the night, going after amrussell. The second night, team 2 decides to go ahead and kill Daphne.
But if Cat is on team 2 instead of team 1, why in the world does he let Alka live and go after amrussell?
Let’s see. Assuming 1 kill and 1 lynch a day:
Tonight, you play/record the box, tomorrow morning total players are down to 5.
Tomorrow, you send the box, the next morning total players are down to 3.
Next night, whoever you sent the box to plays it, in the morning total players down to 1.
Useless, unfortunately.
I don’t know why this is so hard to get right. You’re correct. Oredigger confirmed you Yesterday; I “confirm” him Tomorrow; someone confirms me TWO Days after that, which is too late.
Regarding the Cat/Chronos thing, I still don’t really get “pretends to be a vig” from a strategy standpoint, but I guess I can’t exactly argue “Scum wouldn’t do that” in a situation like this.
I’ve been working on this mega-post trying to understand OaOW’s choice of investigation targets. In the end I’ve discovered nothing new and got nowhere useful but I’ll post it anyway (so it won’t have been a complete waste of time)…
/snipping and some bolding mine
In which case, as SK, I would have happily sat back and let OaOW carry on his fake investigations. So why would I question his choice of subjects and the timing of his investigations:
He replied:
Not a very forthcoming answer but plausible. I can’t read OaOW’s mind to see exactly what he was thinking when he decided to investigate someone on each day but from his posts we can garner an idea of who he was suspicious of and who he was interested in knowing more about…
Day 1: Expressed interest/suspicion of FS, Daphne, Peeker, Chronos and CIAS. No explicit mention of Boozy (his Night 1 target):
)
Day 2: elects Boozy, an indication of his investigation result but doesn’t state a reason. He then expressed interest/suspicion in Daphne, Drain, FS. No mention of Tom (his Night 2 target).
Day 3: Elects Tom, another indication of his investigation results but is unsure of the Alka and Boozy’s alignment. Clears USC, finds me interesting, prefers Chronos lynch (to DB) as more info to be gained - and then investigated DB after Chronos’ lynch - so this investigation matches up with his expressed suspicions.
Day 4: elects Alka. Asks CIAS for his reasons for investigating each person, votes him with a curious comment on the underwhelming nature of CIAS’ investigation results. No mention of me here (he investigated me on Night 4, probably a reaction to CIAS’ vanilla result and vote on me)
Day 5: Expresses interest in testing Tilta’s claim but then investigated Ore instead.
It seems that a couple of his investigations made sense (Day 3, maybe Day 4) while on other days there were various other people he wanted to know more about but didn’t investigate. His leader votes on a couple of occasions as well as the breadcrumb would indicate he did have additional information.
I guess in his position I would have attempted to investigate anyone who’d already made a role claim - hoping to catch them out (as he can’t tell alignment, just role, catching a false role-claim is much more powerful than a result of "vanilla"or a confirmation of a “vanilla” claim) but I can see the value in looking at the pool of unknowns too.
Anyway, I hope OaOW does clarify why he had to assume Normal couldn’t be the SK and why he chose to investigate USC over AllWalker last night as I’m still confused but don’t think it’s worth a vote at the moment (even a quick one-liner will do - I must be missing something everyone else is seeing). There is a version of the world where, to add uncertainty, the SK didn’t kill OaOW last night specifically because that’s what everyone expected him/her to do.
I thought I had made it clear yesterday that I was highly suspicious of Normal’s claim. I thought most ppl would expect me to inv Normal. I also thought that this being the case, if Normal were the SK, I would be killed off.
So I thought the inv only matters if i am alive to report it, so inv someone other than Normal. I hope that is clear, cos it’s a bugger to type out.
Thanks! I think my confusion was related to your idea that *only *Normal as SK would kill you off and that if the SK was someone else, you’d be alive at Dawn. I thought the general consensus was that the SK, whoever that may be, would kill you off, not just Normal. As you were likely to be killed anyway, you may as well have investigated the person you though was most suspicious. But I see your reasoning a bit clearer now.
So you thought your death would essentially serve as an investigation since *only ***Normal ** (as SK) would kill you. Never mind the fact that several other players are also candidates to be SK.
I also find it interesting that you would choose investigate someone who is claimed vanilla when we aren’t even sure if a result of ‘nothing’ indicates failed investigation or not. It seems to me that investigating someone who has claimed a role would give you some indication of what your results mean.
The problem with this plan (should things turn out that way) is that if there’s somehow a remaining (vanilla) scum, it pretty much hands that player the victory. I’m not sure if I can think of anything better, though.
Does anyone want to advance a case for a non-OaOW lynch? I just deleted a case for going after Guiri first, on account of he’s a likely suspect whether OaOW flips scum or town, because it just seemed way too contingent on unknown factors. I’d like to throw my vote down tomorrow at noon so we can get this game rolling a bit faster.
Maybe. I want to think about this some more, but I’m having trouble focusing today. Give me a few hours tomorrow to see if I can get my ducks in a row, anyway.
Experimental new format for vote counts!:
OaOW (3): DB, Allwalker, USCD
This format is new and frightening.