If I were scum and was on the opposite team to both CIAS and OaOW, and considering CIAS supposedly had a “vanilla scum” read on me and then when OaOW needed to make a role claim, why the hell didn’t he indicated me as scum and won 10 year’s worth of town-cred rather then let the doubt remain?
I’m not scum. I’m not the SK. I’m VT. My job is to be night-killed instead of a town power, not mislynched instead of a remaining scum.
I always miss something. Correct.
Serial Killer only scenario:
Scum were investigator, investigator (likely promoted), roleblocker, hider, priest. Tom and Drain are Town. SK (if Diver, AllWalker, or me) could not have known whether OAOW was telling the truth. Nerves of steel/sheer madness apply. If Guiri, would have known OAOW was Scum, but would have no motive whatsoever to remove OAOW last night or possibly even the following Day. Guiri was relatively late on the OAOW bandwagon. The rest of us, who knows?
This one’s hard; I’m not really sure how to rank the possibilities. Just based on overall behavior and how that matches what you’d expect from a SK, I’d put it at
AllWalker=Diver>Guiri>me
Based on role claim and circumstantial evidence, I still think AllWalker is most likely. Based on level of vulnerability to a truthful OAOW,
Guiri>Diver=AllWalker>me.
A complete mess.
I think I’ll hold my thoughts on the still-two-killers possibility until we see if it’s the case – it could turn out a moot point in more than one way. I do have one thing I want to say just before Dawn, though. When is that?
NETA: “Correct” is in response to Tom’s post.
11 EST, Friday.
He’d have had a hard time reconciling that with the “wow, what if Cat was Town after all” things he’d posted a couple times.
No, what I’m saying is the only way any of it makes sense in that scenario is that Cat in fact did not have a reading on you, and was just blowing smoke. And you’d have to conclude that yourself, when his claim did not come paired with an accusation.
I’ve managed one of each so far as VT. 
I don’t follow.
A combination miller-cop coexisting with a role cop is believable, given the weird sets of overlapping Town roles already revealed; a combination miller-cop coexisting with a regular cop, not so much.
It’s possible **CIAS **had no read on you and was merely guessing.
Gotcha. It doesn’t change the calculus as regards Guiri, I don’t think – if he is Scum, he would still have to conclude that OAOW not outing him would imply that OAOW could not out him.
So if I were scum or SK, why didn’t I just sit back and let OaOW play his game at misleading Town (as Tom suggests a SK would have here)? No, instead I drew attention to myself and questioned OaOW on the choice of targets and the timing of each investigation here just as I’d done with CIAS previously. Why would a non-VT player attempt to discredit a role cop’s findings when the findings apparently cleared me (at least from being SK or a scum power)?
The first post is a mark in your favor; the second was after OaOW already had 3 or so votes on him, while no one else had even one; hence, a pile-on.
Okay. Hopefully I’m posting this at the last minute so as not to give anyone ideas. Assuming we don’t have another late Dawn.
I’ve been asking myself, “What would I do if I were a scum/SK in Guiri’s current position?” And the answer is, I’d kill Drain and not me overnight, and then try and see if I could get a “why did Tom survive two straight Night kills when he was the obvious target?” wagon rolling. Because, hey, otherwise I’m going to die anyway and it’s worth a shot.
On the other hand, if I was a scum/SK in AllWalker or USCDiver’s position, I’d be pretty happy just to let things go with the flow; I’ve got a 50% chance of winning, and that ain’t bad given the circumstances. A scum/SK Normal is kind of screwed; there’s pretty much no way she can win at this point. And a scummy Drain frankly deserves to win because, damn, that’s some awesome deception.
Not sure that’s reason enough for y’all to reconsider a Guiri lynch if I do die, but it will be a point in his favor. (If I live, he’s going into the electrocution machine if I have anything to say about it).
Another point somewhat in Guiri’s favor is that OaOW tried to help me resurrect the “maybe Cat is Town after all” thread (which would have led directly to a Guiri lynching); this at least makes it unlikely he was on OaOW’s scum team (though he could still be an SK), and frankly I’m not at all sure of the 2-scum-team hypothesis; can Diver or Guiri comment on whether the movie supports the idea of multiple factions of Screamers at all? It seems like at least in this game the color has been a reasonable guide to what’s possible. It seems more likely that the Screamers got an extra night kill if they had 3 or more living Screamers (as I think Guiri mentioned earlier) than 2 teams, and still more likely that there’s a Serial Killer out there.
(The problem with the extra-night-kill theory is Jimmy’s night 1 death, but I’m willing to leave that as a mystery).
Morning–everyone was accustomed, by now, to waking up at the same time. And, as per usual, there was a dead body. Par for the course, by this point. But only five people left…things were close. Who will survive?
Not Tom.
Tom Scud, a Regular Citizen (VT) is dead.
Day…8? Yeah, I think it’s 8. Wow. Anyway, leader vote ends Saturday 11:00 AM EST as per usual.
If there are two kills tonight and one of them is a SK, we need to take Tom’s miller-CIAS hypothesis seriously. If there are two and one is Scum, it’s pretty much a crap shoot. If it’s two town, I haven’t thought it out fully, but I think we require “help” from the killers to have a chance. Take one or the other out and hope the other’s only option for anyone to win is suicide-by-Bomb; or deliberately lynch the likeliest Town and hope the killers cross-kill. We’re not quite doomed in a two-killer scenario, but it’s not pretty.
Good luck, y’all.
spoil me, please, pede
Man, lousy timing. But yay.
OKay, let’s do this thing.
Perfect timing on that last post, Tom. Farewell, it’s been good playing with you!
To Tom’s final comments:
NETA
Elect Drain Bead
Elect Drain Bead