Screamers Mafia

The Game Room
2801

elect: Normal Phase

Am probably willing to change to Drain once I’ve gotten my thoughts together.

Okay. So much for my two-kills paranoia. We have a chance. Either we have two shots at getting the last killer; or we have double the chance of nailing one or the other of two remaining killers today; if we mislynch in the first case or succeed in the second, it comes down to the same final-three, which is itself a 2/3 chance for a Town win at worst if I’m understanding Tom’s scenario right. Possible fly in that ointment is a Scum or SK with the capability of killing me tonight, but first they’d have to survive today.

I think Tom is wrong about the likelihood of a non-Town, last-killer-standing Guiri killing Drain rather than Tom. Tom was confirmed Town unless Gryff’s music box is false; there’s just about zero chance something like that would fly. Just about any argument would be more likely to succeed over that one – I think Tom’s death is about as neutral a result as you can get.

More in a few.

2802

Okay, arguments in favor of Drain Bead not being Scum:
– in single Scum team scenario or some two-team scenarios, she bussed Chronos to some extent.
– in single Scum team scenario, she ruined tiltawhirl’s bid for survival a couple of days ago by switching vote to AllWalker (also applies in some two-team scenarios)

Arguments the other direction:
– self-vote when Chronos was up on the block

Only half-way realistic two-team scenario with Drain in it is badly unbalanced, and I don’t buy her, as one of six Scum on the same team, ruining the tiltawhirl thing like that.

Drain Bead cannot be a serial killer.

My conclusion: TOWN

unelect: Normal Phase
elect: Drain Bead

2803

AllWalker:

Still have suspicions about him as the SK, if we have one. OAOW’s survival the other night is a small point in his favor; would be more so if AllWalker hadn’t been in agreement with OAOW about the wisdom of lynching me and hence might reasonably have been able to expect that a Townie OAOW might avoid him that night. It’s unquestionably a risk though. AllWalker pushing OAOW lynch the following Day is a point against him, perhaps, but one that really applies to all of the SK candidates to varying degrees. (Bar Guiri, the only one in that group who definitively had nothing to fear.)

As regards the potential for AllWalker to be Scum, the only thing I can think of is his Day One vote for Chronos. Anything else?

Diver
Again, agreed with OAOW regarding me, AllWalker. Known-Town Tom was against him on the day that tiltawhirl died, so the risk of leaving a Town OAOW alive was substantial. He probably ran the second-greatest risk that night out of the SK candidates.

Potential to be Scum? I have no idea.

2804

Guiri:

By far most likely to be SK on a “why did OAOW survive” basis, but has excellent point about Tom also surviving – for her to kill Oredigger would be simultaneously making herself look very bad as regards OAOW and very good as regards Tom. What’s the motive here, why the mixed message?

Points against being Scum:
– stated willingness to change tiltawhirl vote to AllWalker (smallish, since he didn’t have to follow through)
– OAOW’s comments about miller-CIAS make a single-scum-team Scum Guiri unlikely; however, it does fit if CIAS-Chronos-OAOW were one team and Jimmy-tilt-Guiri the other. What rules out the latter possibility best is Guiri’s resistance to Alka’s claim about CIAS. If CIAS was not on his team, there’s no Scum motive there.
– Tom’s survival the night that Oredigger was killed.

Points for being Scum
– the resistance to Alka’s claim (in a one team scenario)
– slow on the OAOW bandwagon (ditto)
– never voted for Scum other than that day, IIRC, minus the tiltawhirl and Cat exceptions

I’m sure I’m missing a few things here; Guiri has a long paper trail compared to Diver and even AllWalker.

Myself:

Points for being Scum:
– Bomb claim (dissuades kills of all sorts)
– unvoted Chronos Day three
– defended OAOW’s half-claim, day one

Points against me being Scum:
– bomb claim (yes, both places!) It’s a noisy claim, so to speak, and I was previously under no lynch threat.
– instrumental in dissuading Peeker lynch, day two
– instrumental in Chronos lynch, days 1-3
– ruined the tiltawhirl gambit by voting AllWalker out the gate that day and keeping it up to the point he was actually lynched
– OAOW trying to get two town for the price of one by lynching me

That puts me against Chronos, tilt and OAOW, which covers all possible iterations of scum possibilities; plus the more generally anti-Scum action of discouraging the lynch of a doctor that was under suspicion.

Points for being a SK:
– bomb claim

Points against being a SK:
– noisy bomb claim (less strong of an argument than the Scum one, since a SK is on their own)
– OAOW’s survival. I usually dislike this sort of argument, but I am saying this from the bottom of my heart: If I were a SK under the circumstances of that Night, I would NEVER have risked OAOW staying alive. Not in a million years. I’m the person he was actually voting for, and he was advocating me being strategically lynched to boot – his survival increased the risk to me even if he did “investigate” someone else.
– behavior that makes a lot more sense as trying to get NKed than as trying not to.

2805

(For what nothing it’s worth, I got the Music Box confirmation of Oredigger.)

2806

/snipped

I had expressed doubts about Alka’s claim since the very start - there was no pro-town element in a tax collector stealing from people and I couldn’t reconcile his role/power with being Town. When he popped up and voted for himself, I was suspicious, then Tom brought up his (soon to be proven correct) theory about a 3rd party escape 1979. I thought that was plausible as it matched my previous suspicions so I said to test Alka’s claim by lynching CIAS and voted for CIAS way before he revealed me as scum.

I attempted to derail the Daphne bandwagon - even though I had been involved at the beginning.

I’ve been among the first to post after every Day and Night color was posted - even when there was a 2-3 hour delay.

I was convinced I was doing the right thing by voting Scuba, I thought he was scum and thought I had a good case against a scum - which others obviously had too as I wasn’t alone in lynching him and I did not attempt to convince anyone to follow me - you (Normal) even convinced yourself that he was worth a vote.

And while the quality and clarity of my posts may not count for much, I’ve been “exposing” myself every day and night, in every discussion, challenging theories, questioning motives, making mistakes and getting involved - certainly not a good way for a scum or SK to play…

2807

DB (3): Guiri, USCD, Normal Phase

2808

elect myself

I don’t see the need to come up with some arbitrary time to end the Day. I’m going to take as much time as I need to vote. I knew I’d probably end up being Leader, so I was hoping someone would provide me with some great insight before now, but I’m at a loss as to who I want to vote for. I think I need to reread the last few Days.

2809

Given it’s not me and it’s not Drain, it has to be 1 or 2 of Diver, AllWalker and Guiri. Most likely just one of them, and we have two shots at getting it right.

2810

I’m working through my thread re-read, and one thing jumped out at me.

First, USCDiver was the first to vote for tilt on our crazy Day 6, and was pretty hard on him that whole Day. Now, one could still make an argument that a Scummy USCDiver would have known that a vote on tilt was meaningless, but pair that with the results from an earlier Day…

Chronos(9): Oredigger, USCDiver, Tiltawhirl, Gryff, DaphneBlack, DB, CatInASuit, OaOW, Boozy Squid
Drain Bead(6) : Tom Scud, Normalphase, Alka(leader), Chronos, Scuba_Ben, GuiriEnEspana
No vote: AllWalker

What are the odds that USCDiver is Scum, given how those wagons break down? USCDiver was one of the first three votes on Chronos, with the third being the confirmed scummy Tilt. USC could definitely still be a SK, but I’m not seeing Scum there at all.

2811

Here’s my stream of consciousness notes from the point where Cat bit it onward:

First big thing I notice is that OAOW is the first to suggest that we lynch Normal, even going so far as to suggest that he go last. 2497. I think this indicates a pretty high chance that OAOW believed Normal’s claim to be false. The only way that OAOW might know that Normal’s claim is false is if they’re Scum together. Otherwise, that may have been quite a risky gambit. If they’re not teammates, OAOW has no way of knowing whether Normal is telling the truth or if she’s a SK. Unless, of course, we have what Guiri suggested, which is another Scum Roleblocker who has been blocking Normal every Night that we’ve only had one kill. Either way, this doesn’t look good for Normal. If Normal is telling the truth, OAOW suggested something that was directly against her own self-interest. (In another interesting thing I see later, Normal defends herself by the third vote on Chronos, using the argument that Scum wouldn’t have bussed a Scum roleblocker…which makes sense unless they have more than one.)

Normal was also inclined to believe OAOW’s claim due to the breadcrumb. Figured I should probably throw that in this discussion, even though it was a sensible belief at the time of the mass claim.

USCDiver was the first to vote for tiltawhirl, and was pretty hard on him that whole Day. He could still be a SK, and I’d have to do some seriously in-depth analysis to see if his votes could have put him on a Scum-team opposite tilt if we have 2 teams. But I’m leaning toward at least putting the not-Scum label on Diver.

AllWalker liked OAOW’s double-kill idea.

After AllWalker turned up not-dead, but before AllWalker fleshed out his claim, Normal was certain that AllWalker was the SK. Even after the explanation, Normal still leaned on AllWalker as being the SK.

Guiri’s attention to the color pointed him in the direction of OAOW before OAOW turned up alive that Morning.

tilt also suggested that we test Normal. So there’s two scummies suggesting it.

Normal thinks that OAOW coming up Scum rules him out as being the SK because he-as-SK would have killed OAOW.

2812

So I didn’t really think about it until today, but the fact of the matter is that I am going to be without internet access for a solid week. Normally, that wouldn’t be that big an issue, but since the game’s right near the end and Mahaloth is busy with his baby, I’m going to have to sub out of modding my own game. Yeah. Not sure who is going to be modding the rest of it yet.

2813

**i volunteer to fuck with them.

oooooohhhhhhhh.**

2814

Alright, MHaye offered to step in as substitute mod, so I’m handing things over to him.

2815

Flexes fingers

Good evening folks.

I’m just familiarising myself with the setup, and should be up and running by the time the leader election is done.

2816

Hiya, MHaye.

Drain, if you’re hypothesizing me being Scum along with OAOW and tiltawhirl, keep in mind that would have meant three Scum left living that Day among only only I think 9 players? Mislynch plus NK at that point and it’s LYLO (in absence of SK; that would complicate things slightly if there is one. But still, same point. If there were three same-team Scum left at that point, they were in a very strong position). Bussing a teammate so close to victory would be counterproductive, to say the least. I think they just wanted a two for one (and to keep things away from AllWalker). OAOW was blowing smoke. You’re also overlooking the fact that AllWalker would never have been in a position to be lynched if not for me. So basically you’re hypothesizing that, from a position of strength, Scum decided first to bus one of their own, then to save that one by risking another?

That’s a good observation, undermined slightly by Guiri not following up on it the next Day until OAOW’s lynch was already all-but certain.

And a correction on the Day three vote count: Diver was actually the fifth person to vote for Chronos: Tom, you, and I were all ahead of him in addition to Oredigger (at the time he voted). And Alka and IIRC at least one other person had expressed suspicion in the interim but not yet voted. It’s better than if Diver had voted last for Chronos or second for you (headdesk) or something, but not that much better.

2817

And what I actually came on here to say, before I saw the recent posts:

I want AllWalker and Diver to come on here and take their best shots at defending themselves as not-Scum and/or not-SK. I can deal with losing to clever play, but damned if I’m going to lose for having zero information to work with.

2818

Elect Drain Bed

Defense coming right up, Normal

2819

I think I missed the import of the “unless” the first time around – you’re suggesting by that that OAOW+tilt+some other Scum with a roleblocking ability were keeping a SK me blocked, and that’s why we’ve had only one kill a few times? Well first, that can’t account for only one kill last night, as Scum would have been down to just a single player in that scenario. Second, Scum in that scenario would have passed up a golden opportunity when OAOW went down – all he had to do was say he knew I was a serial killer, and bam, I get lynched today with about 99% certainty. That as opposed to leaving a SK me alive to have a chance to kill the last Scum tonight.

It makes no sense. (Actually it convinces me that OAOW had no idea who the SK was, if there is one; or who the opposing Scum was, if it’s a two-Scum-team scenario. I hadn’t considered it before, but this is reason enough not to try to chase that particular wild goose.)

For that matter, I think the fact that I completely missed this aspect of your speculation for several hours should be indication enough that there’s no SK guilty conscience here on my part.

(I’m still not sure what you’re getting at by saying OAOW’s actions as regards me were against her (his actually) best interests: as long as he took care not to actually wind up on the back end of my bandwagon, me being lynched was absolutely in his best interests. Two town deaths for the price of one! What’s not to like?)

2820

If I were a SK, having a rolecop around is not just a slight risk, it’s a huge risk. Especially since I was already under suspicion. I could have NK’d OaOW the Night he claimed rolecop without it being traced to me in any way.

As for pushing the OaOW lynch the next Day, why is that a point against me? My reasoning made perfect sense, everyone voted for him, I wasn’t the first to vote for him, and it wasn’t a mislynch. Pretty good, I would say. Doesn’t clear me of being SK, of course, though it counts against me being Scum pretty strongly.

Other evidence I can offer is that it is now clear that I was telling the truth about my powers. Normal’s claim of being a bomber is a disincentive to lynch, as is mine, but by ability has been tested and shown to be true.

Well, as I said above, I did make a strong case against OaOW. Foolish move at this point if we were both Scumola.

Not much more I can say than that. My actions have been consistently proTown throughout the game, coupled with a few lucky hunches (ie, Chronos voting Day 1) that I acted on, when it would have been safer for a SK to keep his head down.