I’ve previously said I thought Daphne should choose her own target; I still do. With all the power roles that have been outed, I don’t expect that there are many remaining in the unconfirmed pool; an investigator of some sort, probably; the vig (unless it’s a serial killer); the politican. And OneAndOnly could be any of those, and it’s possible Boozy or Alka has one of those powers as well (most likely politician). So make it two Town power roles, perhaps, in the unclaimed pool.
In the meantime, there were probably either 5 or 6 scum to begin with (based on the square root of the number of townies, or townies / 4 – I don’t actually see much reason so far to think the numbers will be drastically different). With 2 gone, that leaves 3 or 4, plus any third parties that might be out there; I figure Daphne has a better chance of hitting a third party or scum than of hitting a town power role.
OK thanks, I misread this in the light of the question Chronos asked, about whether a plain goon would be considered a power role. I still think you should blockvestigate OreDigger though.
@Tom - Why are you confident that Daphne is town, as your last post implies? Daphne only has a chance of blocking scum if she is not scum herself.
2 - Drain’s confirmation of Daphne’s block; I also think it very unlikely that Drain and Daphne are scum teammates, given Drain’s prosecution of Daphne on day 2; especially since we now know that the other two leading candidates were Town.
BTW, I fully expect to be vig’d tonight; I think if I’m not, we’ve got a reasonable indication that we have a serial killer and not a vig out there.
Given that, I think the best place for Town to go looking for scum tomorrow is in the later slots in the Chronos bandwagon, particularly the people who were votes 4 + at the time.
That would be Oredigger, USCDiver, Tiltawhirl, Gryff, DaphneBlack, CatInASuit, OaOW, Boozy Squid, plus AllWalker.
Of those, Gryff and Daphne are our two most confirmed-by-mechanics Townies - I suspect one of them will be dead by scum nightkill as well. Boozy is also sufficiently confirmed-by-mechanics that I don’t think we should be looking at him yet.
Oredigger I think is somewhat confirmed by this Chitwood post, which just doesn’t make sense as a scum-partner post; if Chitwood was trying to throw Digger under a bus for Town cred, he would have done it more obviously. Also I think that Digger, while he’s been here, has been very Townie in general in his posts.
That leaves Diver, Tilt, OaOW, and AllWalker; I’m reasonably confident there will be at least one and probably more scum in that group.
Only managed to get up to page 18 of my re-read, so my thoughts are a bit half-baked atm. I seriously underestimated how much time it would take.
I’m certainly not advocating a lynch of Daphne tomorrow, but I don’t think town can afford to assume the scum wouldn’t have 2 blockers. We can only really make a judgement on this when we have a clearer idea of the game setup.
WoW on Diver: (If I live through the night I’ll probably do one on AllWalker; don’t have the time to do a full one this morning and don’t want to waste the effort if I do die).
223 Elects Tom Scud; speculates on OaOW’s ineligibility, thinks if it’s a night action was probably pro-town. 308 Agrees jpei non-leader-vote explanation was lame; votes jpei. 309 “I definitely don’t see his [jpei’s] play as ‘I just don’t care enough’. He seems like a thoughtful player who is playing very cautiously. 457 is town aligned 458 Thinks Tom vs. peeker could be scumfight; thinks Drain Bead case has merit; she seems wishy-washy. Votes Drain Bead. 685 Can’t keep up; thinks a couple of Drain’s posts were iffy. Might ask for sub. 928 Thinks will be able to play more; clarifies previous point on Drain’s posts; on first read thought she was saying everyone believed peekers claim but she was still suspicious of him; on second read he realized that she meant that almost everyone read peeker’s claim as being one of multiple docs; also, is suspicious of peeker’s doc claim; can’t think of mechanism whereby Town doc would be aware of another doc. 966 speculation about night kills not likely productive; better to look at dead players’ posting/voting record. 972 elects Boozy as most-confirmed-Town (to Gueri) “Can you explain why it is you’re assuming TexCat was killed by Scum?”
[url=“http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11639037&postcount=994”]994 still thinks speculation on night kills unlikely to be helpful. 1001 doesn’t think Boozy is totally confirmed, but closest Town has. 1573 is back, couldn’t keep up; asked for sub but it was too late 1619"Is this [2 instead of 3 night kills] also further evidence that texcat’s death on Night 1 was the result of a botched recruitment?” elects Alka Seltzer 1636 quotes peeker’s quote of his pm to demonstrate that peeker could self-protect and thus probably was blocked & killed. 1675 fluff 1716 votes Chronos for previously mentioned reasons, plus bringing up his (anti-Town) program [vote #5] 1740 elaborates on why he thinks Chronos’ program is anti-Town; points out OaOW had used wrong ink on unvote. 1742 fluff 1793 “My guess is she’s [Drain Bead] trying to remove herself as a distraction from the Town which DOES have a pro-town motivation in a perverse sort of way.” 1951 FOS Drain Bead (and others) for trying to derail Chronos wagon.
The 180 degree flip on Drain in his last 2 posts is interesting (though there was a couple-day gap between posts.)
He also flips from thinking speculation on night kills is unuseful to speculating on night-kills; there was a full Night’s worth of data between those posts though, so this is not necessarily inconsistent.
Other than that, he’s generally, before the Chronos pile-on, been (1) well within the game’s consensus on most of his points but (2) always suspicious of Town or players I at least consider to be likely Town (Drain Bead and me). The flip side of that argument is that basically every bandwagon on Day 1 and 2 was on players who are either confirmed Town or (in my estimation) likely Town.
Also, and this is metagamey and kind of unfair, I strongly suspect that Chronos has been posting updates about his program on the scum board all along; Diver’s irritation at the program in his vote post might have reflected an irritation with those postings.
So nothing conclusive, but Diver does look like a decent possibility for a keeping-his-head-down Scum.
I’m not certain of that, but my attitude to Daphne is similar to my attitude to you: you’re both far too dangerous to scum for them to leave you alive for long in hopes of getting you lynched, so I’m expecting both of you to be confirmed-by-scum pretty soon.
After such an eventful dusk, the rest of the townspeople gathered in the bar and…never really left. They were too excited. Some were swapping stories, others shared their theories or various data points, it was almost like day, except in the nighttime. And perhaps, they thought they would be safe if they did not let each other out of their sight.
But, the drama must continue, even if it resorts to cheesy overused techniques like a lightning strike! The lights flickered ominously. A THUD. Everyone’s eyes swiveled to the bar, which DaphneBlack was no loner tending. Tom Scud dared to look over the counter…she had fallen, with multiple wounds. There were serrated wound up and down the body, and multiple stab wounds peppering the face and chest. Not a nice way to go.
DaphneBlack, the local bartender (Roleblocker/Weak Role Cop) is dead.
It is day. Leader is chosen at 1:35 PM EST Monday, October 26th.
Got one of Gryff’s items last Night, I think. Can’t really tell from the PM what it does, although I have a couple of ideas. I cannot use it on myself.
Who is feeling rather pleased with himself. Half-baked was good enough this time. Last night I gave CatInASuit a thorough auditing, and turned-up berynium. He is the Head Screamer.
Wow. I’m doing science, and I’m still alive. Thank you, vig, for holding off, if you did.
The music box did something… odd. I have a pm in to the mods to find out what I can do with it.
The news from Alka is very good. We should be within two or three scum of lynching them all, and probably in a very good position to do so. But I now wonder if we now need to take the third party/WIFOM seriously.
In particular, if Alka is a Third Party/PFK role, his win condition likely involves owning all four caches of berynium. He could even be the Government Tax Collector; I’m imagining color where his mission is to extract the four caches of berynium, leave in his hidden private craft, and set off the nuclear countermeasure to sterilize the quarantine zone. It fits perfectly with the dark future/evil corporations kind of setup, though of course this is all still the barest speculation.
But if it’s right, all he needs to do tonight is scoop up the berynium from jpei’s body (or wherever it is), climb aboard his private craft, and blow us all to hell.
So my suggestion, unless the mysterious other investigator can come forward and confirm Alka today, is that we lynch Alka today, lynch Cat tomorrow, and take it from there. I think with two Screamers already down, we have the elbow room to do this.