Jules Andre and all. I didn’t really read the thread and post draft analysis immediately afterwords because I didn’t want to color my own commentary with outside opinions and defenses. Since my review took so long and I had other drafts to attend to I’m just now coming back and looking them over.
The first thing that stood out to me was Jules positional rankings. As I read the first couple (and as I post this I still haven’t gotten to the last couple pages yet) I began wondering what his rankings were for each team’s positional ranking. So I did a little Excel slicing and dicing and rolled up and sorted his rankings for each position. Let’s see if there are any interesting conclusions:
QB - Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, David Garrard (Rank: 1) Grade: A
QB - Tom Brady, Joe Flacco (Rank: 2) Grade: B+
QB - Drew Brees, Brett Favre (Rank: 3) Grade: A
QB - Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington (Rank: 4) Grade: A
QB - Tony Romo, Matt Ryan (Rank: 5) Grade: B+
QB - Aaron Rodgers, Trent Edwards (Rank: 6) Grade: B+
QB - Kurt Warner, Matt Cassel (Rank: 7) Grade: C
QB - Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton (Rank: 8) Grade: C
QB - Matt Schaub, Jason Campbell (Rank: 9) Grade: B
QB - Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger (Rank: 10) Grade: D-
QB - Carson Palmer, Jake Delhomme (Rank: 11) Grade: D-
QB - Matt Hasselbeck (Rank: 12) Grade: D-
First off, it’s interesting that you gave a B to the 9th ranked tandem and only a B+ to the 2nd. It’s also fun to note that you have ranked your own 3 QB team 1st due to depth even though Manning probably is generously ranked 3rd himself. Depth is important, but I’m not sure that having 2 backups who are unlikely to start more than 1 week boosts this position as much as depth should boost others where starting 2 or 3 a week and the matchup implications are clearer.
I think the Rodgers/Edwards combo is ranked much too low as well. I don’t understand why the Hasselbeck situation only garnered a D- in comparison to the other D-'s, there’s a marked drop off between 11 and 12 there. I think it’s insane to rate Manning and Reothlisberger above Palmer and Delhomme for fantasy purposes.
RB - LaDanian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton, Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee (Rank: 1) Grade: B
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew, Pierre Thomas, Marion Barber, Ray Rice,
Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Jerome Harrison (Rank: 2) Grade: A
RB - Steven Jackson, Clinton Portis, Cedric Benson, Le'Ron McClain (Rank: 3) Grade: A
RB - Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Donald Brown,
Jerious Norwood, James Davis (Rank: 4) Grade: B-
RB - Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, Felix Jones, Kevin Jones, DeShawn Wynn (Rank: 5) Grade: C-
RB - Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Darren Sproles, Sammy Morris (Rank: 6) Grade: C
RB - Michael Turner, Willie Parker, Kevin Smith, Marshawn Lynch (Rank: 7) Grade: B
RB - Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Leon Washington, Fred Jackson,
Tim Hightower (Rank: 8) Grade: B+
RB - DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells,
Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Taylor (Rank: 9) Grade: B-
RB - Brian Westbrook, LenDale White, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene (Rank: 10) Grade: D
RB - Chris Johnson, Joseph Addai, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor (Rank: 11) Grade: C
RB - Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson, Derrick Ward (Rank: 12) Grade: F
Running back is a little trickier to dissect because of the depth, durability and flex position considerations. The biggest thing that jumps out at me is the 3rd ranked group. He has OK backups but even still they aren’t good enough to boost Jackson and Portis ahead of several of these teams when you consider that it’s not a 3 RB league. Jackson is far enough behind many of the top RBs that I might drop them down 5 spots since you can safely start just 1 RB in this league for weeks at a time.
The grades are especially all over the map too. I suppose relative draft value has a lot to do with that but it’s interesting nonetheless. That your 1st and 7th ranked teams share a grade (and the 8th being graded higher than both) is particularly tough to reconcile.
WR - Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes,
Jerricho Cotchery, Nate Washington (Rank: 1*) Grade: B
WR - Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Santana Moss,
Steve Breaston, Percy Harvin (Rank: 2) Grade: B
WR - Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Devin Hester,
Chris Henry, Josh Morgan (Rank: 3) Grade: A
WR - Marques Colston, Roy Williams, DeSean Jackson,
Steve Smith (NYG) (Rank: 4) Grade: B-
WR - Calvin Johnson, Terrell Owens, Bernard Berrian,
Kevin Walter, Tedd Ginn Jr., Chris Chambers (Rank: 5) Grade: A
WR - Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Eddie Royal,
Torry Holt, Ronald Curry (Rank: 6) Grade: A
WR - Reggie Wayne, Antonio Bryant, Lee Evans,
Muhsin Muhammad, Hakeem Nicks (Rank: 7) Grade: B
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Derrick Mason, Laveraneus Coles,
Mark Clayton (Rank: 8) Grade: C+
WR - Steve Smith (Car), Anthony Gonzalez, Lance Moore,
Devery Henderson, Joshua Cribbs (Rank: 9) Grade: B-
WR - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Braylon Edwards, Donald Driver,
Domenik Hixon, Michael Crabtree (Rank: 10) Grade: C-
WR - Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward, Michael Jenkins (Rank: 11) Grade: D
WR - Chad OchoCinco, Donnie Avery*, Deion Branch,
Patrick Crayton (Rank: 12) Grade: D
I think your rankings are a bit off the reservation here. I think if you stepped back and resorted them based on your grades as opposed to your ranking they’d make a whole lot more sense. The group ranked 4th with Colston, Williams and Jackson are particularly over ranked, they would be 10th at best in my rankings.
I don’t see how a team with Derrick Mason as the #2 can beat 4 teams either.
TE - Antonio Gates, Chase Coffman (Rank: 1) Grade: B-
TE - Jason Witten, John Carlson (Rank: 2) Grade: C+
TE - Tony Gonzalez (Rank: 3) Grade: A
TE - Chris Cooley, Dustin Keller (Rank: 4) Grade: B
TE - Greg Olsen (Rank: 5) Grade: A
TE - Owen Daniels (Rank: 6) Grade: B+
TE - Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis (Rank: 7) Grade: B
TE - Zach Miller (Rank: 8) Grade: C
TE - Kellen Winslow (Rank: 9) Grade: D
TE - Visanthe Shiancoe (Rank: 10) Grade: C
TE - Jeremy Shockey, Kevin Boss (Rank: 11) Grade: D-
TE - Heath Miller, Anthony Fasano (Rank: 12) Grade: F
Things get a little more tidy here with the TE position. Your ranks seem to largely dismiss the backups. This is the correct way to go I think, while leaving the grades to bolster or mark down overall ratings based on depth. You obviously take a much kinder view on drafting backups for stud TEs than I do however.
The biggest quibble is with your placement of Dallas Clark I suppose. Personally I agree with him being rated 6th or 7th but this flies in the face of conventional wisdom.
K - Ryan Longwell (Rank - None) Grade: B+
K - Nate Kaeding (Rank: None) Grade: A
K - Kris Brown (Rank: None) Grade: B
K - Jason Elam (Rank: none) Grade: B
K - Josh Brown (Rank: None) Grade: B-
K - Stephen Gostkowski, Mason Crosby (Rank: None) Grade: F
K - Rob Bironas (Rank: None) Grade: D-
K - John Kasay (Rank: None) Grade: B
K - David Akers, Nick Folk (Rank: None) Grade: F
K - NONE (Rank: 10 tie) Grade: D
K - NONE (Rank: 10 tie) Grade: D
K - NONE (Rank: 10 tie) Grade: D
Not much to discuss here but included it for completeness. Time will tell if the harsh treatment of drafting multiple kickers or kickers early is merited.
Def - Pittsburgh, Minnesota (Rank: 1) Grade: F
Def - New York Jets, Philadelphia (Rank: 2) Grade: A
Def - Baltimore, New England (Rank: 3) Grade: F
Def - New York Giants, Miami (Rank: 4) Grade: D-
Def - Tennessee (Rank: 5) Grade: C-
Def - Dallas, Green Bay (Rank: 6) Grade: C+
Def - Indianapolis (Rank: 7) Grade: C
Def - Chicago (Rank: 8) Grade: C
Def - San Diego (Rank: 9) Grade: A
Def - Carolina (Rank: 10) Grade: B-
Def - Tampa Bay (Rank: 11) Grade: C-
Def - Cleveland (Rank: 12) Grade: D-
Another tidy list but it’s clear that your rankings take very little account for the backups and the validity of taking one. The grades seem a much more accurate indication of draft acumen but we shall see which ranking has more in relation to the final outcome.
I will say you have Chicago and Indy ranked far too high. It is worth noting that I’d probably have ranked all the backup defenses drafted ahead of all the defenses ranked 7 thru 12. I suppose that paints a very clear picture of which teams value the position and which don’t.
I would very much like to revisit this subject one the final results are known.
Here’s a quick summary of my overall preseason post draft grades sorted by draft order. I do my summaries on the fly and don’t really weight and average any grades, nor do I have much of a concept of what everyone’s team looks like in the greater context as I do them. Each team’s grade is essentially just a summary of my opinions on that team in a bubble.
Quentin’s JAMmers: Preseason Grade: B- Exploding Pancakes: Preseason Grade: B- Kid_A: Preseason Grade: B+ New York Fanboys: Preseason Grade: C+ Court Jesters: Preseason Grade: C Omni’s Omnipotents: Preseason Grade: A No Use For A Name: Preseason Grade: C Tazmanian Devils: Preseason Grade: C- Isotopes: Preseason Grade: A- The Gridbirds: Preseason Grade: C- Last Place: Preseason Grade: A- Frosted_Lightning: Preseason Grade: D
Considering that each grade is not given with much thought to how it directly lines up against any other team using those grades as a prediction could be dubious. But then again it might also prevent me from gerrymandering any of my conclusions to an expected outcome. So take the following rankings with that in mind. It will be interesting to see if my predictions are accurate, and perhaps more interesting to see how much luck is involved when it comes to final records and rankings relative to preseason player estimates.
Anyways, here’s the order of finish that my grades dictate.
1st - Omni’s Omnipotents
t2nd - Isotopes
t2nd - Last Place
4th - Kid_A
t5th - Quentin’s JAMmers
t5th - Exploding Pancakes
7th - New York Fanboys
t8th - Court Jesters
t8th - No Use For A Name
t10th - Tazmanian Devils
t10th - The Gridbirds
12th - Frosted_Lightning
I’m eager to hear if anyone sees any inconsistencies here based on various opinions I or others have stated. Of course I invite plenty of trash talk too, but the fact that I am on top isn’t intended to to be any chest pounding on my part. It is my best attempt to be objective, but there’s no doubt that I spent the entire draft feeling like things fell my way.
I should have mentioned in my first post that the grades and rankings are entirely separate entities. Rankings are based on a weighted average of my personal projections between the starter and the main backup with adjustments for relative risk. Grades are based on draft position and value, though of course they take into account what I expect from each player in a general sense. Primarily, though, a grade is based on who you got when, who was available, and how the fantasy team looks at that position. They were never intended to be matched up and compared.
As for your observations, I think you’re looking at positional depth too one-dimensionally. It is not limited to which bench players will rotate for which starter, but also what those bench players are worth in the trade market. I consider the 2nd QB in a fantasy league to be extremely relevant, beyond just their one possible spot start (depending on fantasy team). A team that drafted Tom Brady the year after he lasted not even a full quarter should understand exactly what I mean. Considering that I weight for the second QB, I think it’s pretty clear that a Manning/Cutler combo is among the very best duos in this league. It’s certainly better than the 2nd and 3rd teams. But where other duos are more balanced, they lose ranking for not having an elite top QB. I guess I weight a little more than most for depth, even at QB. Having the flexibility to move Cutler or Garrard is worth a lot. And saying Manning is a “generous” top 3 QB is disingenuous. He may not finish top 3, but nobody has fewer question marks. Nobody is more consistent. Those things have value.
Who would you put below Rodgers and Edwards? Romo and Ryan? Romo is every bit as good as Rodgers, statistically, and Ryan is a far stronger backup than Edwards. I don’t project Edwards out very well at all; the Buffalo O-Line is the worst in all of football. And on a lesser important note, his receivers are aging and his run game is questionable. I also wonder if Rodgers can repeat what he did last season considering that the run game will be better (less throwing opportunities), and the defense will be markedly better (less shootouts). I stand by that positional ranking in particular.
As for the other observations, again, the grades and rankings are not meant to be compared or put together. At least Hasselbeck has been a fantasy star before, and he’ll have healthy wideouts again this season. He’s not someone I’d ever want to start, but it isn’t like that team’s starting QB is Kyle Orton. It didn’t deserve an F because he was taken in a defensible round and is a defensible starter. You think Manning/Big Ben is insane above Palmer and Delhomme? Really? You might want to reconsider that. Or, rather, ask yourself, how many games have Palmer and Delhomme missed in the last three seasons? How many have Manning and Big Ben missed? Delhomme is coming off the worst playoff performance in history, and we have no idea what to expect from Palmer. Palmer is already hurt even! You are definitely way higher on Palmer than most. The last time we saw him play a full season, he was only average. Why would you assume he’d be that much better this season when the team has gotten worse? There’s not a lot of fantasy upside for Manning, but there certainly is for Big Ben (double check his 2007 for an example), and at this point Ben’s upside is higher than Palmer’s in my eyes. Not only are those three teams ranked properly, you’re insane for thinking otherwise. It’s very clear that that is the proper order.
Frankly, I’m not sure I understand this at all. Are you discounting the value of a #2 RB in a league where you can actually start them? That’s wrong to do, if you are. Even in a PPR league, RB is probably the most vital position of all, considering the 2 you can start and the value relative to other positions. Are you forgetting that these grades AND rankings are based on the position in a vacuum? I can’t reasonable grade the RBs based on the WRs, even if one of the starting spots is shared between them. It would be impossible to have a clear ranking system at all if I had to factor in all those players.
You probably aren’t high on Jackson, which is fine. Understandable. But I am high on him this season. When you have two 1st round caliber RBs, your ranking goes up. There isn’t another top 2 in the league as strong as that team’s, aside from that of LDT/Slaton. I really don’t understand the question here. I’m shocked and stunned that you would even pick out that team as questionable, of all of them. I thought my own team’s ranking was misleading more than any other.
It wouldn’t be hard to reconcile at all had I mentioned what I have in this post. Still, despite my mistake and omission, I would think it would be easy to differentiate between a ranking and a grade (especially considering that I explained the rankings in my first review, and mentioned that in every subsequent review), given that I have both. Why would I give a ranking and a grade if they were the same? And why would the higher ranked teams have lower grades if they were of the same value? It seems obvious to me that a little consideration would have made it clear why some teams ranked below others have better grades. If you draft Peterson and Turner in rounds 1 and 2, your team has the best RB duo in the league (preseason). If a different team drafts MJD, Forte, and Tomlinson in the 1st, 6th, and 7th, they get a better grade.
I’ll admit I had a tougher time ranking the WRs than any other position, but I think my rankings are fine. I don’t understand how my rankings are any more suspect than yours. Was I supposed to rank positions by your rankings? Colston and Williams are both ranked in my top 11, and Jackson is in my top 25. Having an explosive #1 WR in pass-first offense at #3 is a boon. Colston is a legit #1 who was good when he played last season, and incredible his last healthy season. 10th in the league? Please.
It’s a PPR league. he catches a ton of passes every season. Baltimore has exactly one legitimate pass catching threat, especially in the end zone. Mason is historically very steady and very under appreciated. He’s a good fantasy starter in this league. Besides, you really can’t understand how a team with the consensus top WR in all of fantasy gets an elevated ranking?
As with any ranking/grading/rating system, it’s easy to tear holes into it. You can’t account for the math I did or the projections I used when you look closely at my posts. And I’m certainly not posting my entire projections list before 3 other leagues draft from this forum. But where your questions seem to be, I’m most puzzled. There are a lot more questionable things than those you mentioned.
I think drafting a backup TE in a league where there aren’t a ton of bench spots is a bad idea. My rankings here were almost entirely weighted towards the starter. But this is unique to the TE position, I think significantly accounting for depth at the other positions is correct and prudent. I just wonder how you can understand that grades and ranks are separate here, but not with your earlier post.
I guess I should be really happy that the biggest quibble is with Dallas Clark being 7th. That makes me feel great. Looking at my rankings, they go pretty much exactly as my projections do. It isn’t even that I dislike Clark so much this season, I’m on the fence with him, I just think the others behind him take a jump up. Cooley’s and Daniel’s past seasons reek of anomaly to me, they should both shine this season (Cooley in particular, he has been universally undervalued in every fantasy draft thus far. People are clearly not looking at him closely enough). Olsen is someone I’m really excited about this season. Giddy, even. Clark was the odd man out. mostly due to age and the upside of the other guys above him.
I could be proven exactly 100% wrong with regards to how this position plays out in this league, and I’ll still not admit I was actually wrong overall. If you draft a kicker early, you fucked up. This cannot possibly be defended. If you draft two, while imperceptibly more defensible, you fucked up. I’m taking this to my grave.
I don’t bother to project defenses or kickers. I do take general notes on which ones I think move up or down, but other than that, nothing. My rankings here are based mostly on previous performance. Grades are entirely on draft strategy and value of defense selected. I like being able to play matchups on defense, which I think is extremely important, without having to drop your top defense. Dropping the #1 defense on a bye is probably a very bad idea, considering the value of that defense over the replacement for the season. So I bump up teams that draft two, something I have never done before.
Sure, no arguments there. I filled in the top defensive groups and the bottom defensive groups, and Chicago and Indy were the leftovers in the middle. Again, it’s mostly by what happened last year, which is probably not the best strategy considering the massive fluctuation from year to year at the position. That said, I think I got the top teams rankings right, I think I got the bottom teams ranked correctly. I’ll absolutely believe you if you say San Diego and Carolina finish the season better than Indy or Chicago. I elevated those grades based on it, trying to keep the separation from the rankings and grades to stay consistent with the rest of my positional breakdowns.
I can’t wait! That’s the fun part of doing rankings and projections, you get to review it all later. I’m certainly no seer of the future though, I’ve made some boneheaded picks on this very forum. I expect I’ll be 75% wrong about my projections and rankings when everything is said and done. It’ll be tough to take all the ribbing and ridicule, but you have to put yourself out there to make these kinds of predictions anyway. Part of the job!
It’s hard to really express emotion and intent on a web forum, and I know my responses to you will seem defensive or as if I’m insulted, but that’s not my intent. I spent a lot of time writing these up and developing a system and implementing said system in my rankings. I believe in it. I want it to be understood. Obviously not everyone will agree, that’s fine. It’s a lot more fun to disagree anyway.
And this will make the thread much more fun next season, too!
This was predictable. For years and years there had been a very clear and dramatic separation between the 1st tier of TEs and the rest, the point differential between say the 3rd TE and 4th would be something like 30%. Then, for the last three or so years a distinct 2nd tier emerged meaning that approximately 2/3rds of the teams in a given league could get reliable production out of the TE position.
These two factors meant that there were always 2 runs on TEs. First a run on the elite guys around the 3rd round and a second longer run on that middle tier in the 6th round or so as people panicked fearing that they’d be left slotting a blocker into that TE spot all season long.
This year it became abundantly clear, though the trend has been noticeable for the last few, that there were more than enough TEs that fell into those first 2 tiers to go around. Positional runs are created by scarcity of talent. As more NFL teams lean on the TE position and more teams adopt pass happy spread offenses no scarcity exists and no reason for urgency during a draft.
I presumed this but comparing them is interesting nonetheless. Perhaps it will indicate that us commentators put too much value on the concept of value. It’s sometimes cool to be the “smartest man in the room” but a drafter apparently throwing away value might be nothing but a buzzword. In short, perhaps having the top ranked group at a position simply can’t be a bad value.
Comparing the perception with the prediction is interesting and comparing the actual production with both could be compelling.
Let’s compare your top 2 and my top 2. You have Manning and Cutler, I have Brady and Flacco. Brady is pretty clearly better than Manning in just about every respect from a fantasy stand point this season, the gap isn’t huge but it’s notable. Cutler is clearly a better player than Flacco and even with the step down he’ll take in the Bears system he’s still a better fantasy QB than Flacco. The difference between Cutler and Flacco is probably larger than the difference between Brady and Manning proportionally. But the difference between Brady and Manning, who will start all but on game for you, is much more important.
Long story short, your weighting system needs to be adjusted. The value of trade potential is essentially nil. It’s all theoretical and for whatever reason trades are extremely uncommon in FFL. Sure, you might be able to turn Cutler into a player who could start on your roster (in what week?) but that’s far to theoretical a thing, which is wholly dependent on the whimsy of other managers, to offset the tangible difference in the starters as the exist.
Rodgers is clearly better than Romo. Romo lost TO and Rodgers and the Packers offense looks to be lightning. Rodgers is healthier and he whipped Romo in every category last season even when he did have TO. I don’t necessarily think Edwards is equal to Ryan, but with the addition of TO and the no huddle I expect it to be much closer based on Edwards 66% completion percentage. In any case, the same argument as above applies. Rodgers is so much better than Romo that the difference between Ryan and Edwards is overshadowed.
Rodgers is neck and neck with Manning and Rivers and frankly has fewer reasons for doubt than Manning considering the coaching changes, questions at WR and improved running game. There’s little point in comparing backups so long as the backups are close. Pennington, Cutler (Bears Edition), and Ryan are similar enough to Edwards so as to make the debate wholly about which elite starter is best. I like Rodgers and his WR group (the only ancillary factor that really is decisive, not the running game or number of imagined shootouts) better than Manning and Romo and consider him and Rivers a coin flip. With a heavy weight on starters that the only debate that matters unless one of the backups is truly great or truly horrible.
Gimme Palmer over Big Ben every day and twice on Sundays. Sure he might get hurt, but Roethlistberger is no certainty to be on the field either. Palmer’s WRs are dramatically better than Ben’s and between the two Ben is much more likely to suffer from a improved running game. And if anyone is gonna be throwing from behind it’s Palmer. You are gerrymandering your justifications to fit your conclusions and contradicting yourself in the process. Your knocks on Rodgers are the same ones that would apply to Big Ben and your supporting evidence on Hasselbeck should bolster Palmer even more.
And for the record, as much as Delhomme was embarrassed in the wind last Fall I’ll still take him and Steve Smith over Eli and the smurfs. And in this case, where the starters aren’t elite guys, the backups weight does actually matter.
I’m just saying that the rationale for boosting a grade on the QBs based on marginal differences in backups where I disagree is more justifiable here with the RB position because you can start more than one. Where in the QB list the weight should probably be 90%-10% for starters-backups the RBs should probably be closer to 50%-30%-20% for starter-flex-backups (though a RB-RB-Flex league would command closer to 30%-30%-25%-15%)
As far as Jackson is concerned this is the point: The difference between AP-Forte-Turner and Jackson is so huge (Jackson doesn’t deserve to be a 1st rounder in my book) and the RB2 role somewhat diminished due to the Flex that the difference between McFadden-Grant-Parker and Portis is outpaced. The RB-Flex changes the weights you need to use and I’m just disagreeing with your assigned weights that your rankings seem to indicate.
I’m OK with yours (though it needs to be higher than Jackson-Portis) because AP filling your only mandatory RB slot is so key and such a big weighting. The reason drafting 2 RBs is so important in traditional leagues is not because a guy like Portis outscores a guy like McFadden by 2-3 points a week, it’s because Portis outscores a skunked TD vulture like LenDale White that you are forced to start to fill a mandatory RB spot by 12 points. In this league that risk is gone.
I was never confused about it, as mentioned it’s just an interesting conflict. It highlights how grading a draft creates a strange hybrid of strategy critique and player rating. When the grades and ranking differ wildly it can point out where you perhaps over-emphasized the strategy critique portion while overlooking what could be more important, the actual players gotten.
It was never intended to be a criticism. You used 2 methodologies, I’m simply enjoying comparing those two and finding where they might diverge. Places where they diverge are probably places where something interesting is happening.
I get that you had a ranking system and I’m pointing out the places where that ranking system differs from mine. When I stomp you in our head to head matchup this point will be made crystal clear.
Separate from that, I also get that you were grading the draft using a more amorphous method that considered the ranking of a player as one portion of the whole. I highlighted the spots where you overlooked what might have been a particularly high or low rated group of players in favor of those rest of the whole. Perhaps it would be instructive to whoever wanted to read this thread and would get them thinking about what people liked and disliked about their draft.
I think you realize that when your 9th ranked QB, RB and WR groups all happened to get B-'s or better it might be an interesting quirk of the process.
How can value be a buzzword? It’s the single most important part of the draft. The draft game boils down entirely to who you take when. If anything, too much emphasis is put on projections, which are essentially drawn out of a hat.
If the production between the 2 ends up being 20-30 points over the course of the entire season (which is reasonable, and what I have on my sheets), your assertion that Brady is far away superior to Manning is foolish. If Brady throws another 50 TDs, you’re right. That’s happened exactly one time in history though, so I don’t count on it happening again. Of course, the only other guy to throw 49 is Peyton, so it isn’t like the upside between Brady and Manning is that far off. Also, while I don’t expect Brady to have injury problems this season, he is coming off of a season ending injury, and being compared to a guy who has never missed a game in his career. Compared to Manning, Brady carries all the risk of checking the contents of your gas tank with a match.
As for the relative rankings of the two groups you provided. I have the better group, in my eyes (my rankings too, fancy that!). I should have the better group, I spent three picks on it. My third QB is better than your second, and the difference between our top guys is essentially nothing, considering all factors. My ranking system holds up.
As for the value of trading, it all depends on who you are. I wrote these rankings, so my opinion matters the most, thus trading plays a huge role in value. I swing 2-5 trades every season. Trades are not uncommon to me.
I see very little difference between Romo and Rodgers, but I suppose you could argue that Rodgers is better. “Clearly better” is a little strong and pretty much indefensible considering that Rodgers has had exactly one season as a starter and that season was a.) not as good as Romo’s best season, so Romo’s proven upside still stands taller, and b.) not as good as Romo’s season last year, given that Romo missed 3 games. Extend his averages out to a 16 game season and Romo had better totals last season than Rodgers. Throw in the difference between Ryan and Edwards (again, someone I’m not high on at all), and I stand by that ranking too. If Rodgers and Romo are a tie (in my minds, they are essentially one), the tie-breaker is the backup.
Did you date Edwards in high school? On what planet is Edwards even close to those other guys? Is it his career 1:1 TD:INT ratio that makes you so high on him? Maybe his stellar record of health and long standing, consistently excellent production? Or his stunning 2008 season that put the skeptics to rest? Look at those QB groups again, the only three teams with a worse backup than Edwards are the teams with Delhomme (even this is arguable, at least Delhomme was good once), Campbell, and the guy who didn’t even take a backup. Every other backup is better, as it stands right now. Let’s, uh, slow down with the Edwards love, cowboy.
Wait, did you just say you like Rodgers better because of his WR group, over Manning and his? Those two groups are almost exactly the same, production-wise, except that Manning has an elite TE and Rodgers doesn’t. Hell, even if we agree that Jennings is better than Wayne (debateable, but likely to be proven true), and that Driver is better than Gonzales (again, debateable, but likely true), the slight differences between those groups is more than made up for by the TE. Again, slow down cowboy.
Big Ben has missed 2 games in three seasons. Technically, no player in this league is a certainty to to be on the field, but you’re really cherry picking to fit your arguments. What’s the word for that? Oh, right, gerrymandering. I notice you accused me of that. Nice touch. I think OchoCinco is probably the best bet, between the WRs of Cincy and Pittsburgh, to break into the top 6 at the position this season. But Coles is not someone I think should be counted on, and I don’t think Ocho/Coles is so much better than Ward/Holmes. Cincy wins, but not by much, in my mind.
I’m not contradicting myself at all, you’re just not paying attention. Or, rather, you’re constructing your own imaginary contradictions in order to make a point. Rodgers situation is the same as Big Ben’s? Well, I’d argue that Big Ben has a far lesser chance of an improved run game, but okay (Parker is essentially cooked and has a lesser chance of a rebound than Grant, who already had his rebound over the end of last season.). They are similar… which is why I downgraded them both. Excepting of course that Ben is a backup, and Rodgers a starter, so one gets downgraded more than the other. Are you really trying to weasel me into defending Ben over Rodgers? What sort of shenanigans is this?
You’re right that my defenses for Hasselbeck apply to Palmer, they’re in very similar situations. You’re right that Palmer should be boosted above Hasselbeck. Which is why he was, you know, boosted above him in my rankings.
Really? Wow. I’m starting to wonder if I’m wasting my time. I’ll take Ben over Delhomme, and comparing Delhomme to Eli is not just a stretch, it’s a joke.
I have Jackson finishing 4th overall in my projections. The difference between he and AP/Forte/MJD (above him) comes out to 20 points by season’s end. I know I’m higher on him than others, but taking him out of the first round is a leap. You have to adjust your projections to account for RBs that aren’t part of committees (hey, look at that, it is fun to make broad assumptions about another person’s methodology!). which provides a lot of value. And, our league is a PPR league, and SJax is among the best 4 or 5 receiving backs in the league. He’s developed into an injury risk (less risky than others think, people are very clearly not doing homework on him this season), but the upside is undeniable.
Aside from that, you have no idea the system I used to weight a starter over a backup. It’s laughable to read what you’re saying, though, because where you offer suggestions as to what it should have been, you have no idea how closely they often mirror what I actually did. You seem to think you can glean some methodology from the rankings, which is literally impossible given that I’m working on my own projections, which you can’t know. Doubly ridiculous given that I’m accounting for risk as well, which can’t really be mathematically factored. Triply ridiculous in that you’re assessing my rankings (based off my projections) as they compare to your own (which I couldn’t possibly know, nor would I care to given that we’re exactly as likely to be right). Take it at face value, pal. You think Player X is better than Player Y, great! I disagree, but therein lies the fun! You think I ranked Player X improperly because you ranked Player Y higher… take a hike!
The risk isn’t gone. Personally, I’ll take a 1st round caliber RB in my flex spot over a 3rd tier WR in the same spot. I put some emphasis on this in my rankings. When a team spends a high pick on a second RB, their flex spot is going to be more stable than someone who is putting a 3rd tier WR there. I think it’s an advantage, in this league particularly, to have 2 really strong RBs. Starting a WR in the flex is inherently more risky because WRs don’t control their production as much as RBs do. And most teams’ second RB is better than their 3rd WR, so the flex spot will go there anyway.
Really, unless you clearly draft to start a 3rd WR in that flex, you’re better off sticking a RB there. Aside from that particular strategy, #2 RBs will be better than #3 WRs. Flexibility is an advantage, but teams generally don’t fare well when they have to play matchups with that flex spot (this is because nobody here actually knows anything and we’re wrong half the time).
When I ranked the positions (done in a vacuum from other positions), I treated the flex as a second RB spot. When I did the WRs, I treated the flex as a possible 3rd WR spot. I’ve found as much downside as upside in playing matchups with that flex spot that I think it’s a big advantage not to have to.
Let’s say, last season, you were dead-set that DeAngelo Williams was going to be a stud. Fuck everyone else, fuck Jonathan Stewart, he’s the guy. If you take him in the eighth, you’re a genius. If you could have gotten him in the ninth and Aaron Rodgers with your eighth, you fucked up. You fucked up doubly if you had to start Palmer last season because of it. Value is the absolute most important aspect of drafting well, it cannot be separated from the draft process. Drafting Larry Johnson in the 4th is a huge fuckup, no matter how well he does, because he would have been there in the 5th or 6th. Sure, you end up with the same player either way, but the opportunity cost is too significant to ignore. Value has almost nothing to do about who was gotten, but moreso about who wasn’t.
The only acceptable argument is that there’s no way to truly know who could have been taken later, and that value is misleading as it is determined from a blend of arbitrary pre-draft rankings and hindsight. That’s an acceptable argument, not “all that matters is who you got.”
I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on it, considering I’ve lost two of the last three seasons. Believe me, it’s crystal clear that you disagree with some parts, but the method by which you disagree is a little irksome.
Not at all, I fully expected it. I can’t imagine how someone could do rankings and grades without that being the case, unless they’re just doing the same thing twice. The rankings and grades of the defenses are perfectly exemplary of the process. In a nutshell, my rankings were strictly based on who you have-- my grades were based on who you got when. If they don’t differ, sometimes significantly, I failed.
I’m willing to package Ray Rice + Lance Moore, or Knowshon Moreno + Devery Henderson or moreno/moore or rice/henderson for an upgrade at receiver. Anyone interested? PM me what you’re thinking. I’d be willing to consider a lower tier WR if it also came with a swap at TE or defense.
I have trade to announce. I’m going to announce every trade on here and give some time for objection before I approve it. I don’t see any reason why anyone would object to this, but as a general rule…
Retrovertigo gives up Anquan Boldin and the Chicago defense
SenorBeef gives up Ray Rice and Lance Moore
Despite the draft positions involved here, I think he actually gets the better of the deal. I don’t know if Lance Moore can hit 1000/10 like last year with Colston back in the lineup, but in a prolific offense I can see him getting 900/7. They’ve been targetting him like crazy in the preseason. And I predict Rice will be a solid RB2, on par with players like Marion Barber and Ryan Grant.
Boldin is banged up right now (weeks-long hamstring injuries on WRs are scary) but hopefully overall he’ll be more healthy than last year. Hopefully 102 year old Warner stays healthy too.
But… it probably improves both our teams in the long run since I’m loaded at RB and he’s very thin.
If there are no objections, I’m going to go ahead and approve this trade sometime tonight, so that it will be reflected in tomorrow’s gameday rosters.
(Which sucks for me, by the way, since Ray Rice is going to rip up the KC defense and Anquan Boldin is questionable. Just pointing that out in case it looks like I’m fast tracking it in the name of self interest).
Ha. I actually had a higher projected score this week, before the trade/drop of NO defense, without a kicker in my roster.
Anyway, I passed the trade through. Boldin hasn’t practiced from Aug 25 until now and is questionable for the game. I really hope it’s just because they a vet and they don’t want to risk it, because nagging hamstring issues can really screw over WRs.
I’m having a little buyer’s remorse on that trade. Oh well, we’ll see. If Boldin is totally healthy by week 2 or 3, Steve Smith/Boldin and MJD + whoever has the best matchup between Barber/Moreno/Gonzalez/Thomas is going to be dominant. It’s a little scary though that 4 people on my roster are out or questionable for week 1. I wish I’d have snagged Ray Rice in other leagues, at the value he goes for he’s going to be a big pleasant surprise this year.
I’m glad Dallas couldn’t manage to play defense against a team that fired their OC a week before the season and is starting a journeyman QB. That’s always a good thing, can’t say I’m surprised there, not at all! (Fuck Dallas, I hate them so much)
After the first half of Sunday’s games, I’m up 19 with Rackers. and Mcfadden/Miller to go. Isotopes has Rivers and T.O… So I have a kicker and two guys on Oakland against Rivers and T.O.? Really? I can’t believe I might lose after ADP put a beat down on the Browns and got me a 40. Scary.
I’m continuing a long and glorious history of massive bench points. My starting WRs laid and egg and got hurt early, meanwhile Devery Henderson and Josh Cribbs were on the bench with 19.8 and 15.88 points.
On the plus side, the 38 point Eagles defense was on Ellis Dee’s bench too.
