You had pretty brutal back to back weeks having to face me and then re-Petey. He actually got a pretty significant win this week for the wild card since you two are the strongest competitors for the slot. He got unlucky with H2H and a pretty boom or bust team, but he’s third in league scoring and is on a 3 game win streak so I bet you he’s going to make the playoffs. Realistically I think I’m too far ahead on wins for him to take my spot, but he’ll be right in there for the wildcard. I worry about facing him in the playoffs since it seems like he can rip off 150 any given week.
The wildcard race is shaping up to have more contenders than it seemed a few weeks ago. We have one 8-1 team way out ahead but after that two 6-3 teams and five 5-3 teams.
We have a pretty competitive race for the #1 pick with two 1 win teams and bizarrely one of them is the champ. I know I’ve mentioned this and I’m not trying to pick on him really but I don’t know if we’ve ever seen such a massive change in one year so it still shocks me a bit.
I went ahead and moved the in-yahoo trade deadline to Nov 30 since we usually go as late as we can. I think we decided in the last year or two that trading is open all year except during the playoffs, correct me if I’m wrong, so we could manually conduct a trade in the thread even after that.
Chase Brown keeping me afloat while Pacheco has been out. My TE production has been terrible. I don’t think I have enough to win a title unless there is a TE injury on Baltimore that isn’t “Likely” to happen.
Well, I mean, I sucked forever until Big Ben and CMC miracled me a championship and then reverted right back to form the next year, finishing 9th and missing the consolation bowl. I ended up 4th in draft order, taking Cam Akers with 1.04. *sigh*
I know we tend to be pretty accommodating about people doing conditional starts if they have life events that prevent them from being able to make a switch depending on game time injury decisions. Like if someone’s on a plane or something.
We don’t do that for conditional starts that are literally impossible, right? Nico Collins is a game time decision tonight at 8:20pm, and my only real alternative if he doesn’t play is Quentin Johnston, whose game kicks off at 4:05pm.
I’m pretty confident we don’t allow that kind of conditional starting, but just wanted to clarify. If we do allow it then I’d like Quentin Johnston if Nico doesn’t start, but I’ll set my roster assuming it’s not allowed.
I would’ve normally hyped up my big match with Jules last week but I’ve been travelling and it seems like he’s about 95% checked out so I didn’t make a thing of it. In any case, he soundly beat me. I miss that time long ago when I beat Jules like 27 years in a row, though not in this league.
I’m going to lose this week too, to 5-5 Ol’ Gaffer who decided to go ahead and put up his biggest game of the year on me. Tysom Hill went off for 40, so that’s fun. What annoys me is that I was legitimately thinking of sitting Kyle Pitts for Jonnu Smith since they seemed to be heading in opposite directions and that would’ve got me 23 extra points, enough to win. Instead I get to lose with 136 points. Ah well.
High scoring week across the league really. 10 teams scored over 120.
Jules and I are only 1 win ahead of everyone else, it’s not a lock that we’re going to win our own divisions - we may be in competition for wildcard slots. In Jules case, both Spiritus and Ellis Dee have a 2-1 division record edge over his 1-2 record, which means they could easily catch up. I’m a little safer since I have a 2-1 division record over Dale and Re-Petey who both have 1-2.
Peteys is still third in points scored (wildcard tiebreaker) but dropped a game this week putting him behind the three teams with 7-4 records.
It actually looked a few weeks ago like the playoff race might be kind of boring with only one or two spots contested, but it has tightened up considerably. Gaffer and Retro are both in contention for the midwest division, and the other two divisions have 3 teams each that realistically have a shot at either the division or wildcard. Spiritus has come from way back to go on a winning streak and make a run for the Northeast, and Dale has overperformed his points scored and Petey has significantly underperformed his in terms of win/loss record to keep things close.
Reminder that you always have to make a good-faith effort to try to set your best lineup every week. Even if you’re out of playoff contention, it’s unfair to the teams that are that some teams have to play opponents that are trying their best to win and others aren’t.
I was something like a 90/10 favorite over Peteys at the end of the early games but now he’s come back to being a 54/46 favorite and I’m nervous. Dale is winning his game decisively means we’d have a tied record and a tied division record too. He might steal the division from me with 200 less points scored overall. Obviously this win would also be pivotal to Petey’s playoff run.
The dream of winning the midwest with a losing record is still alive. I think the division winners always get seeds 1-3, right? So whoever gets the #1 seed would probably prefer to play the #3 seed than the wildcard #4. I kind of wish there was a mechanism for the top seed to pick their own matchup.
There is a Yahoo option to reseed the playoffs. And since the wildcard has a better record than the #3 seed more often than not, we should have been doing that a while ago. But I think it was voted down a couple years back. The #1 seed does not win the championship very often in this league
Yeah, I remembering arguing in favor of it because think of the drama if the #1 seed picked the wrong opponent and lost when he would’ve won against the #4. Just seemed like a fun perk of having the #1 seed while also the chance to backfire in an entertaining way. I don’t really remember any compelling arguments against it, but oh well.
Pretty important finish between Petey and I. I have a 16 point edge and JK Dobbins still to play, against his Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Yahoo puts me at 48% to win but I think that’s overestimating a bit. I have to hope the Chargers D is as good as they’ve been recently.
If I win I can maintain a 1.5 game edge in my division but if I lose suddenly Dale and I are tied in both record and division record and Petey is still in the run for the division with 7 wins.
I was nervous about losing this week when two starters went out with injuries and Javonte Williams sucking, but then I checked and Omni started 3 guys on bye. I’ll take the easy win, but it’s not a good look and may appear like tanking.
I agree that is a problem, and I mentioned it in post #390 without calling him out specifically, but that’s fair. He didn’t have a lot of good options to start, but it’s required to start anyone on your roster that may score points over people that are guaranteed to be out/bye*. No harm done in this case since his best case score still falls well bellow your score, but it is indeed important to put in an effort to field your best team every week.
You could think up exceptions to this like you’re up 1 point going into Monday night and your defense (which could score negative points) is still starting, and you could yank them, but you get what I mean. The point is that you’ve got to try to win every week.
Not tanking, just careless. Hamlet and I played each other in both leagues so he benefitted twice. In this league it wouldn’t have changed the outcome. Likely I would have netted just an extra 6 points from Marv and I suppose I’d have probably swapped defenses for a net gain of 5. In HHM…different story and I was in playoff contention.
I went to the Bears game this week and it screwed up my usual Sunday morning ritual.
Sure, no problem, I figured it was something like that.
Through most of the season I held the points lead, record lead, and looked almost guaranteed to make the playoffs but after a 3 game losing streak there’s a realistic possibility I could miss the playoffs entirely.
I’m tied with Dale at 8-4 and a 2-2 division record. I beat him handily on points scored, the next tiebreaker, but we play each other next week. If he wins, he’d have to lose the next week and I’d have to win to take the division. Peteys is only one game behind me, and if he wins out while I lose one, it would come down to a points tiebreaker where I only currently hold a 15 points lead. I could lose the division to either of them. They do play each other in week 15, so under this scenario the winner of that game would win the division.
And if I lose the division, it probably means I ended up with a 9-5 (or 8-6) record. I could easily lose the wildcard to Ellis Dee, either because he won one more game, or he closed the 20 point gap between our scores. Spiritus also has an outside shot at the wildcard. He’d have to win out while Ellis and I lost out, or possibly Dale if Peteys wins the division.
And I haven’t even touched on the most important playoff race. Retro and Ol’ Gaffer are both at 6-6, and they do not play each other again this year, which means that neither of them have to win. Should they both lose out, Retro would take the division with a 6-8 record on account of his stronger division record. He made that his goal, and I think we should all support him in this. They both do have Omni left on their schedule, so we’re gonna need him to pick it up and go on a little win streak to make this happen.
Thursday games were good for me, everyone came in a little bit to moderately over projection. Yahoo has me at a 78% favorite currently and I’m a little relieved but you never know. I was afraid my 2 Miami players might turn in bad performances in the Green Bay game but they did fine.
I had a big week just when I really needed it. 140 points with the Denver D still to play. If I had started either the Charger or Cowboys Ds, I’d be up over 160. This means that Dale will not take the divison from me, but Peteys still could.
Peteys has a 60/40 projection against RNATB going into the Monday night game. He has a 37.05 lead, but RNATB has Bo Nix, David Njoku, and Jerry Jeudy still to play.
Ellis has been going off these last few weeks. He scored 155 this week. Which means Formerly sentimental gets to lose despite scoring 140, and is out of playoff contention.
It’s too early this week to comment on the total points situation, but there are 4 players who could win the total points race. It’s quite close.