I gotta say if I snapped up the BPA guy this would be the best draft (relatively to where I started) this league has ever seen, I think.
I’m a little sad Stringer seems too disengaged to be enraged by how well I’m doing.
It’s only a great draft if you count Ellis inexplicably handing you Crowell on a silver platter surrounded by watercress.
I mean, getting Crowell is part of it - I spent/traded a pick and got a player back, so my draft is Davis/Crowell/Perrine plus what could be the ~20th best prospect but I’ll probably end up taking something else instead. A lot of sites have Corey Davis as the #1 prospect in the draft, and there are more top WR dynasty assets than RB in general.
Sorry for the delay. I’ve been watching video/looking at rankings for 2 straight hours. I get really into this shit.
fapfapfapfap
You want to see what I’ve been fapping to?
Alternate angle
What the fuck is that shit? That’s crazy.
Alright, sorry for the delay, I tortured myself over this one.
3.05 - DeShone Kizer, QB, CLE
Justin is up. PM sent.
Alright, so there were 2 WRs and a RB that I was seriously considering there. They probably would’ve been BPA. But I’ve been running a roster with only Aaron Rodgers (and sometimes a bottom 5 scrub for emergencies) for years now. I’m loaded at RB and WR, I needed a QB.
So then it came down to Mahomes vs Kizer. Mahomes has ridiculous physical talent. And he came into the perfect situation - he can sit a year behind Smith and learn from Andy Reid, who can Favre-ize him and has as good a chance as anyone at taming down his ridiculously bad mechanics. The freakish thing about him is that he’s so strong that even the worst mechanics in the world didn’t stop him. They’d hurt him more in the NFL though against better awareness and smaller windows.
It was super tempting to take him because if Rodgers stays healthy I can wait for him to develop and see if he hits ridiculous ceiling.
But… as I said, I have no QB at all on my roster otherwise. If Rodgers gets hurt, then having Mahomes sitting the year doesn’t help. Kizer will start right away and be a decent fantasy starter if only because of the rushing yards.
Here’s the thing, though. Kizer is actually really good. You guys will just assume I’m being a homer, but you won’t find me praising any Browns in 20 years. I’ve pretty much said they’ve all sucked, or at best gave them tepid, specific praise for certain attributes. I knew Charlie Frye/Brady Quinn/Colt McCoy/Weeden/etc. were shit. I didn’t try to prop them up.
Kizer is the first Browns QB that actually looks what a good QB should look like. He keeps his composure, keeps his eyes down field, has pocket awareness, has arm talent, and generally passes the eye test of what a good quarterback should look like.
“Oh but Browns QBs have sucked for 20 years lololol!” as if what happened to Tim Couch in 1999 has any relevance to what happens to Kizer in 2017. I also heard a lot of “ND hasn’t produced a QB since Joe Montana!” - it’s not the fucking school buildings that are producing quarterbacks. There’s no ghosts that inhabit the quarterbacks. Teams and schools change coaching staffs, schemes, players all the time. The idea that such and such position for X team or Y school has sucked for 40 fucking years so there’s no way someone succeeds is just an example of the desperate human need to put things into patterns and give agency to things that don’t have agency.
I honestly think the Browns finally made a hit with Kizer and I have not said that in 20 years.
Lolbrowns. Ur da worst homer. Factory of Sadness etc.
Did you PM Justin?
Yeah, he hasn’t been on since 6am.
I’m here.
I sent a pre-rank list to Varlos because I wasn’t going to be near an Internet connection yesterday, but I guess he was occupied too.
Pick coming shortly.
OK, here we go…
3.06 - Aaron Jones (GB - RB)
PM to Hamlet sent.
Damn Senor Beef, its like your inside my head. We’re in the same situation (one starting QB on the roster and then nothing), and that breakdown of Kizer vs. Mahomes was exactly what I was thinking. Does Kizer’s immediate value as a starter this year outweigh the fact I think Mahomes has better physical tools and is, by far, in a better situation for long term success? I kinda want to thank you for making any of my hand-wringing moot by taking Kizer.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Now, I would have made that call even if Kizer was available. They are both impressive physical talents, both capable physically of being a top tier NFL QB, and both with huge question marks about how they will transition to the NFL game. And since there is little to no way for guys like us to know what a player is really like in his brainpan, it becomes, to me, a matter of who do you trust to make that assessment. And, again just for me, it’s pretty clear I’d much rather trust Andy Reid and the Chiefs than Hue Jackson and the Browns to decide which prospect is better and then to develop that prospect. Even if it means waiting awhile for him to actually be relevant.
I’ll PM Omni.
There’s at least one important thing I left out of that analysis. We’ve seen Kizer be successful in a pro style system in ND in 2015. And in fact 2015 Kizer may have been the #1 overall pick in the draft. He regressed in 2016, but there are a lot of reasonable explanations for that - losing a lot of talent to the NFL, much weaker O-line and receivers, a worse defense, a coach that seemed to fuck with his assignments and schemes and hang him out to dry.
Mahomes comes from an air raid system that has never produced a successful QB. This isn’t the same thing as I railed against above, it’s not X school or Y team has never produced a QB. Scheme affects how you’re trained and how you learn the game and how it utilizes your talents and masks your weaknesses, so obviously there can be people who are successful in one scheme and not in another one. This isn’t to say that he can’t be successful - and Reid and sitting behind Smith gives him as good a chance as anyone. But it’s a significant red flag for projecting his transition.
He’s also a mechanical mess. He’s such a physical specimen that he makes up for horrific mechanics with pure strength and skill. He’s throwing bombs off his back foot constantly that often make a big play. But that sort of shit that will fly in college will get you killed a lot. Favre is a good comparison even if he manages to become a good QB, because he’s going to be a guy who’s so sure of his physical talent that he’s going to make questionable decisions thinking that he and only he can pull it off. If he can more often than not, you get Brett Favre. If not, you get… I don’t know, Jeff George?
Kizer is a better rusher which is fantasy relevant. Kizer is also no slouch in the physical gifts department and has pretty good tools, just not “holy shit, how did he do that” tools like Mahome. And while I think Mahomes is in the better situation with Reid, Hue Jackson is no slouch when it comes to developing QBs - it’s not like he got drafted into a team coached by Romeo Crennel/Eric Mangini/etc.
One other issue is - what if Alex Smith takes the chiefs deep into the playoffs this year? He’ll be under contract next year, do they move on even after going to the AFCC or maybe even superbowl, or does Alex Smith get another year? I think Mahomes will start next year, but it’s not a guarantee, and a year or two is a long time to go without a backup QB for your team.
Even though I’ve got Jameis Winston stashed as my Quarterback of the Future, I was seriously considering Mahomes at 3.06. He’s got the ability to be a great quarterback and Alex Smith is definitely in the twilight of his career. But my RB needs are much more pressing and Aaron Jones had a great preseason.
I think Trubisky might actually become better than Mahomes or Kizer, and I was a little shocked he went in the first round. Oh well, I’m pretty happy with Zay Jones there. With Watkins out and Boldin retired, he officially becomes THE MAN on that team. I know Buffalo doesn’t have anyone to throw to him, but he had a good preseason too, so I’ve got high hopes and he might produce just due to the sheer lack of other options.
Now, nobody take either of the guys I’m eyeing for 4.06 so I can be happy with my draft.
I don’t want to talk you out of Kizer. I don’t think he’s so much further along developmentally as Mahomes as you think, and, yes, Mahomes is a complete rebuild, but, to me, so is Kizer. And I’m not sure that Kizer’s college stats, relationship with Brian Kelly, his benching, and his attitude are great indications of his ability to develop.
But what the fuck do I know. I just know that I would trust the Chiefs scouting department and Andy Reid to select and develop a QB more than I would the Browns and Hue Jackson.
I think Trubisky has a higher floor, and close to if not as high a ceiling, as Kizer and Mahomes, so yeah, I would have much rather had Trubisky. But I wasn’t going to take him in the first round.
I love me some Zay Jones, and he was, to me, clearly the next WR after Williams to take. The lack of a QB in Buffalo is troubling though.
Kenny Golladay Det - WR
PM outbound.
I’m in the same boat as the others. I have Luck as my QB and then shit a.k.a. Bortles. I’ve watched Trubisky all preseason and I’ve been impressed. He looks legit, and I really didn’t draft him as a straight up homer pick. It’s a major need and I really thought he was BPA, I’m down on all the WRs this year and the RBs with guaranteed work are all off the board. I think he’s fully 2 rounds better than Watson, Kizer or Mahomes and he’ll be starting by week 8. No way he was coming back to me in the 2nd.
I think there’s about a 90-95% chance he’d have been there for you in the second. Who was going to take him? No one touched a QB till Varlos at 2.12 and I don’t think anyone but you views Trubisky as so much better than the rest that they’d have taken him a round earlier than they took another QB.
Ellis may have unfortunately won the record for the shortest space between draft pick and IR.
“Broncos placed rookie WR Carlos Henderson on injured reserve with a torn left thumb ligament, ending his season.”