He was definitely going to be there in the 2nd. Easily the 3rd, too. Looking at it, probably the 4th.
If I hadn’t traded my 2.06 to you, I probably would have taken him then.
Way back when, I drafted Charles Sims when he was already on IR because the Bucs were so high on him. Unfortunately for me, Doug Martin came all the way back from his injuries and Sims has been the third down back ever since.
Doh!
Do I get a supplemental pick for him?
Similarly, do I get a supplemental pick for Kenneth Dixon?
I think Varlos said we’d do the same thing last year, where at the end of the regular draft we’d have a mini-IR draft where you get a pick for every player on IR. Sort of a first dibs on the waiver wire almost.
I was thinking about this guy last round and he’s still here.
3.09 Cooper Kupp, WR, LA Rams
I will send PM.
3.01 dale - Joe Williams, RB, SF
3.02 Retro - Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR
3.03 dale [from Jules] - James Conner, RB, PIT
3.04 Ellis - Carlos Henderson, WR, DEN
3.05 Beef [from RNATB] - DeShone Kizer, QB, CLE
3.06 Justin - Aaron Jones, RB, GB
3.07 Hamlet - Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
3.08 Omni - Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
3.09 Petey - Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
3.10 Stringer
3.11 Retro [from Varlos]
3.12 Ellis [from Beef]
And as far as I can tell, there have been no trades involving 4th round picks since the draft started, which means the next round will be
4.01 dale
4.02 Varlos [from Retro]
4.03 Jules
4.04 Ellis
4.05 RNATB
4.06 Justin
4.07 Hamlet
4.08 Omni
4.09 Petey
4.10 Stringer
4.11 RNATB [from Varlos]
4.12 Justin [from Beef]
Apart from what Justin said, you guys are nuts. Look at past drafts, EJ Manuel went at 2.02, Bridgewater went 1.03, Bortles went 2.02, Manziel went 2.10 (!), Mariota went 1.09, Winston went 2.05. Trubisky may be below Winston and Mariota as a prospect, but he’s in there with the rest of those guys for sure. Trubisky was way above the other 3 in this draft as an NFL prospect, and while fantasy players often diverge on opinions with the real GMs, in a dynasty league it’s less so.
Trubisky might flop and individuals may dislike him as a prospect, but there was no chance I was getting him in the second based on the history of this league. Kamara was the only guy I even debated on there and he’s behind AP and Ingram for at least the first half the season, so it wasn’t that tough a choice.
I lost Tajae Sharpe today, so I’ll be on that list.
Who specifically was going to take Trubisky before you in the 2nd? Justin said he would, but he never picked ahead of you in the 2nd round in this draft, since the pick was traded last year. You can’t say that he’d for sure be gone before your 2nd pick when you can’t identify someone who was likely to have taken him. I guess you could maybe say Hamlet would’ve taken him with 2.07 but I doubt it. Certainly I don’t consider him with 2.05. The fantasy world in general doesn’t think much more highly of Trubisky than Mahomes or Kizer, so I think he’d have gone somewhere around where they did, mid third. Very likely after your 2.08 pick, anyway.
You’re right that Bridgewater and Manuel are weird picks, though, so I guess anything is possible there. Bortles was probably a better prospect than Trubisky, Mariota and Winston definitely were.
Everyone looks at him and remembers Goff is his QB (who went 1.12 last year b.t.w.)
Fantasypros which is a good consensus ranker site combining 16 (default) fantasy sites rankings puts Trubisky at 37, 2 spots ahead of Kizer and 7-8 spots behind Watson and Mahomes. So he’s the third prospect averaging out 16 expert dynasty rankings, not the best QB by far.
How many are on the roster? Is it 25? Because I have 22 keepers, but I have 2 guys on IR.
I had thought I would have 2 more picks, but are we doing a supplemental draft?
You can’t assume trades would have definitely still happened and I can’t read anyone’s mind, but based on history and people’s rosters I think my assessment was sound. You, Varlos and Hamlet clearly were looking for QBs. RNATB needs a QB of the future. Dale’s got Dak and nothing. HGH has Palmer and Tyrod. I’d say there’s plenty of people who reasonably could be eager to take a QB early.
Um, Trubisky went 2nd, Mahomes 10, Watson 12 and Kizer was 52 in the real draft. Feel pretty good about that data point. And where do you think Manuel, Bridgewater, Goff, Wentz and Manziel were on Fantasypros’ dynasty rankings those years? Fantasypros has Trubisky below Shane Vereen (and Bortles!!!) in Dynasty rankings…so I’m going just take that with a grain of salt.
If Fantasypros Dynasty rankings are your trusted source, then I’m happy to trade you Bortles for Kizer straight up. That’s a 45 spot value for you.
If they were that eager to take a QB early, they’d have taken Watson or Mahomes probably, given that those are by a decent margin regarded as better prospects by dynasty ranking consensus.
I can link draft value lists all day that have Trubisky as the third or worse QB prospect and often by a decent margin. Your assertion that the dynasty world thinks Trubisky by far is the best prospect is simply wrong - I don’t know if I’ve found a single source that thinks he’s the #1 prospect.
My comparison was clean, apples to apples. I used their rookie rankings to rate players against each other. How you rate producing players several years into their careers with rookies is a lot trickier than comparing rookies to rookies.
You’re trying to sell us on the idea that Trubisky was far and away the #1 dynasty prospect this year and you had to get him early. That is clearly false - just google “fantasy rookie dynasty rankings” and see the dozens of sites that do not have him as the #1 prospect. Those rankings are also aware that he was drafted #2 overall in the real draft, and yet chose to value him after players who were drafted behind him.
Try to find me a rankings that lists Trubisky as #1, and tell me how many you went through first to get there.
I think the way it works is that however many players you had on your roster at the start of the draft, subtract that from 25 and that’s your number of picks. If you don’t have 25 non-IR players by the end of the draft, you get to participate in the end of draft IR draft. May be a 2 pick max there, since that’s how many IR slots there are in the league, although I don’t see any reason that can’t be 3+. As far as I know, there’s no scenario in our current rules in which an IR player generates an extra normal draft pick - just a supplimental pick at the end of the draft.
It only takes 1 person to disagree, and our league’s history indicates that it’s practically a certainty. Does the order of the top 5 WRs match the “consensus”…nope. RBs…nope. The entire first tier of rookie QBs has ALWAYS gone before the end of the 2nd.
Those dynasty rankings are generally shit and they don’t account for the depth of our benches and other league settings. In most dynasty leagues guys like Cutler, Bradford, Bortles, Glennon and Garappolo are available on the waiver wire right now, so they dramatically undervalue QBs.
3.10 - Taywan Taylor, WR, TEN
PMed RV.
It’s ironic that the “consensus” has Mahomes well above Kizer…yet you took him first. All while you’re trying to argue that I should assume our draft will go 100% chalk allowing me to get my guy in the 2nd.
Does this logic hold up if I drafted Kizer at 1.06? You’d think that was totally reasonable?
“No, but no one thinks Kizer is as good as Trubisky” doesn’t hold up, since almost everyone thinks Trubisky is at best the third QB prospect this draft.
That’s not always true. Unless you’re kind of defining “first tier” to make your case. There are years in which one guy goes inexplicably highly and everyone else goes in a reasonable spot, which is what we have this year. 2014 for example - a crappy year. EJ Manuel went too high at 2.02. His tier-mate Geno Smith didn’t go until round 3.
I think our league isn’t particularly unusual. Most dynasty leagues go 20+ players deep I think.
In any case, you’re right that it only takes one, but then that justifies any reach. The reality is that no one touched a QB - not even QB-needy teams, until the last pick of the second round. And since almost no rankings by anyone put Trubisky as the #1 prospect, it seems unlikely that he would’ve gone before then.
Drafting Kizer with the 41st pick is about where he’s expected to go. Drafting Trubisky with the #7 pick is about 30 picks ahead of where most people should think he should go. I’m not criticizing you for not rigidly adhering to a draft list, I’m criticizing the idea that Trubisky was such a hot commodity that you had to reach for him at least one full round early, and part of substantiating that idea is pointing out that almost no one rated Trubisky as the best dynasty prospect.