In other news, Josh Gordon is going to be reinstated by week 3 and he’s in the best shape of his life.
I know a guy who knows a guy who maybe posted on a message board at some point about something he saw written on a bathroom stall.
WTF!! 49ers placing Joe Williams on IR - ProFootballTalk
I knew Hightower was going to get cut and I don’t trust Hyde to stay healthy. I thought I’d grabbed a decent sleeper. I may as well as a drunk at the bar to make my next draft pick.
It would appear the IR supplimental draft may be longer than the actual draft.
I had Trubisky rated higher than all the other QBs. You can say I’m wrong, that’s why this is fun, but it’s a defensible position for me to take since he was actually drafted 2nd overall in real football. I wanted him on my team.
You’re trying to say that I absolutely could have gotten him in the second, which without the benefit of hindsight, is not well supported based on past drafts amongst this group of people under these rules. The opinions of “the consensus” have not been reliable for QBs in this league in the past, so I see no reason to argue it would this year.
This is an ridiculous thing to say, to be frank. NO ONE ANYWHERE was saying Kizer should be drafted ahead of Trubisky in the actual draft. In this dynasty league, where we almost exclusively draft rookies and keep them forever, we should map very closely to the real draft for QBs.
Ranking fantasy players on the internet is traditionally really flawed, and becomes exponentially moreso in dynasty where it’s always impossible to find a projection that matches your league settings and can project 4-5 years into the future and balance immediate production against future value.
If we were drafting for the first time, which almost all dynasty rankings assume, the rookie QB who’s likely to start early in the season like Kizer and Watson will of course be higher than Trubisky who has Glennon ahead of him. They weight immediate impact higher than we typically do. I think it’s a useless metric, and it doesn’t help answer the question “when will Trubisky get drafted in THIS league” as well as past drafts do.
I skimmed the last 4 seasons and don’t think I saw a single 1st round QB go later than the 2nd round, definitely not a single top 10 drafted one. That’s the least subjective definition of “first tier” I can make.
I think that’s wrong, Yahoo’s max roster size is 30 and 12 teams is considered “big” in standard fantasy, 25 players x 12 teams is deep. Not sure how to prove it one way or the other, it’s certainly the biggest roster I’ve ever played with.
Had I not overpaid for my Gurley trade, you probably wouldn’t have gotten Trubisky. He was on my early list for pick 2.01. I looked at quite a few different scenarios, I was fine trading out of my 1.01 draft pick, I didn’t want to not have a 1st or second, but I knew after getting Gurley, I had a long list of spaghetti players to throw against the wall to see if any of them stick.
Woooooow. Phew! I came a hair’s breadth from drafting Williams with the 2.12 pick, went so far as to enter him on the Keeper Results page on Yahoo and write up the post here, with an explanation. Was hovering over the “Submit Reply” button when I decided to make one last pass, noticed that he’d just left a game with an injured ankle in the last 20 minutes (and that he’s a non-factor in the passing game), so I scrambled for a Plan B and threw in Watson as a replacement. Which I’m still not happy with as a pick – but at least he’s not Trubisky. 
Half-serious question for Omni: in drafting Trubisky, is it a concern for you that the Bears haven’t had an above average passing game since Harry Truman … 's first term? I mean, it’s shocking how close that is to being literally true. Erik Kramer had one good year in '95, McMahon had a couple efficient-but-not-prolific years in the mid-'80s, someone named Rudy Bukich led a Bears passing attack that was in the top 1/3 of the league for two years from '64-'65, and before that Ed Wade had them about in the top 1/3 of the league in '61. Other than that it’s somehow all been mediocre-or-worse since “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
I might have missed one or two decent years, but still, that’s bonkers. That history would give me pause before drafting a rookie Bears QB; it would make me think there’s something in the culture of the franchise that just makes good QB play less likely.
I, and everyone else in the world who cares enough about dynasty football to attempt to compile a list of rookies, think you’re wrong. No one as Trubisky as the #1 prospect, let alone #1 by a large margin.
Do you think these people who put together dynasty websites and project dynasty prospects are unaware that Trubisky was drafted #2? You keep harping on “He was drafted first, obviously he’s the best prospect!” as if it’s somehow self evident, but that has never been true of fantasy ever, dynasty included. It’s only one component as to how you project a player, otherwise why even try to project rookies? Just trust the pros and draft them in the order they were drafted in. Trubisky #1, Joe Mixon #50whatever.
I said there was a 90-95% chance you could’ve gotten him in the second, which accounts for a small chance of someone else having a weird valuation of him. You’re right, though, sometimes our league drafts a guy abnormally high, way higher than they should, and you’re essentially using that as a defense that it’s okay to make the same mistake because hey, this year you’re that guy. You feel that Trubisky is the BPA at #7, every other dynasty expert in the world puts him in the mid-late 20s at best, averaging more like 35-40.
Why? This has never been the case in fantasy football, dynasty or not. Will Fuller was a first round draft pick last year, but we were drafting all sorts of non first round WRs before him Were they wrong? Is it only rookie quarterbacks that have to be drafted in dynasty in the NFL draft order?
When we started this league 9 years ago, dynasty was rare and novel. Now there are dozens of fantasy sites dedicated simply to talking and analyzing dynasty leagues. There are people who specialize just in being dynasty experts. You’re making it sound like this is a whole new frontier where everyone is just taking a wild guess, not something that’s very popular and well analyzed.
I linked you to dynasty ROOKIE rankings, which don’t assume we’re drafting for the first time. Those would be dynasty startup rankings. Comparing how people value rookies who’ve never taken a snap to 4th+ year players is obviously more complicated with more room for judgment than comparing rookies to rookies, since people would value someone who will have an average career but obviously not totally bust and flush out of the league differently than they might look at rookies.
In the comparisons that were about the dynasty prospects of rookies vs other rookies, specifically about rookie QBs vs other rookie QBs, no one thought Trubisky will be the top dynasty prospect, and obviously not by such a huge value that he should go more than a round ahead of the rest.
[quote]
I skimmed the last 4 seasons and don’t think I saw a single 1st round QB go later than the 2nd round, definitely not a single top 10 drafted one. That’s the least subjective definition of “first tier” I can make.
12 isn’t big, 12 is the normal default league size for everyone. And dynasty leagues always have a deeper bench than standard leagues. I have no idea why you’re trying to make the point of “this is dynasty! it’s different!” early on, but then try to use non-dynasty leagues as some sort of baseline for your comparisons.
Incidentally, you would probably be more credible if you hadn’t spent your second round pick on another Bear no one has heard of that most people have going in the 5th round or later.
Having lived through the horridness that was the 80’s and early 90’s of the Packers, I don’t buy the whole “culture of the franchise” stuff. Changes in GMs, head coaches, and players make all the difference. Draft well, make good trades, don’t overpay for overhyped QBs, and developing talent are much more important than an imagined history of a franchise.
I don’t like the Bears, I’m happy that they gutted a potentially championship team to chase Jay Cutler, and I think they made a mistake moving from #3 to #2 to fight off imagined dreams of other teams, but I don’t hate Trubisky. I think, at worst, he’ll be a competent NFL QB, and, if he develops, he could be a top 10 NFL QB. Granted I also think that there are many QBs who fit the “competent” bill, and I think they’d be idiots to throw him out there this year, but I think Trubisky has a chance, just a chance mind you, of being a solution to their QB problems.
I don’t have a problem with Omni drafting him where he did, but it certainly wasn’t a a good value pick either. Give him grief for drafting Garrett Wolfe/Dexter McCluster v.2 in the second round all you like, but Trubisky wasn’t a horrible pick.
I mean, the Bears never having a passing game is pretty much what informs my entire football philosophy. So, yeah, it’s on my mind. If you’re asking if I think decades of ineptitude somehow curses Trubisky or precludes him from being good? Not really. These Bears basically have nothing in common with any team from the 00’s and earlier, not even the stadium…the uniforms I guess are the same. The only inherent problem the Bears had with the QB position we never prioritizing it. Clearly with Trubisky, they changed that. If he sucks, it’s likely because he sucks, not because he’s a Bear.
Yeah, I’ll defend omni on that point. You can look at near-term recent QB success because things might be in common - O-line, receivers, coaches, talent evaluators, etc. But what does the Bears having a shitty QB in the 90s have to do with today? Unless they’ve got the same GM or QB coach or whatever for 20 years, then you could make a case, but they don’t.
It’s hard to acquire good NFL QBs, and when you get a bad one but invest highly in him, you give him a few years before you declare him a failure. So if it’s hard to hit one, and it takes a few years to recover from a failure, it’s not all that unexpected that some teams have a long run of bad QB play without some sort of institutional memory.
coughJay Cutlercough. coughCade McNown cough**coughRex Grossmancough*
So let’s do a quick straw poll. How did everyone rank the rookie QBs coming into this draft? Me:
- Trubisky
- Mahomes
- Watson
- Kizer
Can we add an additional question to that?
Like, say, “would you prefer to draft Trubisky with the #8 pick or Mahomes/Watson/Kizer 20+ picks later”?
But fine, poll people if you want. It won’t change that literally 20+ sites that have ranked dynasty rookies all disagree. You can look for yourself.
We’ve already covered Cutler, no one wants the dried pulp of that horse dug up. But McNown and Grossman represent the worst approach to getting a QB in my book. Overdrafting a QB at the back end of the first round after all the higher rated guys were gone. Those were practically panic picks in those drafts.
2 people have already said they’d have taken Trubisky if they could. I don’t know why these lists you keep bringing up matter compared to that. Looks like 3 people valued Trubisky in the 6-15 range, which validates my entire point. If we were in a league with a bunch of bloggers who make lists I guess I might have been wrong.
Is this a fantasy straw poll? Or an NFL straw poll? Because you cited where Trubusky was drafted in the real NFL as if that somehow played into his fantasy draft prospects, so we should be clear.
(he was a horrendous, laughable, embarrassing reach at 2 in the real draft)
Who cares about this?
Cultures can change, but at any given time they probably won’t. If you took someone who was new to football and showed him the stats from the last 75 years, then asked him if there was anything going on with 49ers franchise as a whole (or the Redskins, or Giants, or any other team) that made it unlikely for them to succeed at passing, he’d say No … but if you asked the same question about the Bears, he’d have to say “Maybe,” and I think that’s kind of the right answer. It could just be fluke of roster construction, bad luck, etc., and that someone has to be at the bottom. Or there could be some idea or way of doing things in the front office that keeps fucking this up, and who knows whether that’s changed or not?
That said, it is relevant that they spent the #2 overall pick on Trubisky. When was the last time the Bears drafted a QB in the top 10? Top 5?
Watson > Mahomes >>>>> Trubisky > Kizer
But none of them are great prospects, relatively weak class.
Literally everyone. I took a straw poll at work, and every single person out of 8 said they care, on a scale of 1 to 10, in the 2 to 15 range.
First round QBs drafted by the Bears all time:
1939 2 Sid Luckman QB Columbia
1942 10 Frankie Albert QB Stanford
1946 4 Johnny Lujack QB Notre Dame
1948 3 Bobby Layne QB Texas
1951 2 Bob Williams QB Notre Dame
1982 5 Jim McMahon QB Brigham Young
1987 26 Jim Harbaugh QB Michigan
1999 12 Cade McNown QB UCLA
2003 22 Rex Grossman QB Florida
2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky QB North Carolina
They drafted the same number of 1st round QBs from 1939-51 (12 years) as they did from 1952-2017 (65 years).