Would there be any interest in extending the trade deadline for a week? I don’t have anything in the works myself, but I still have a couple things in theory that I’d like to tweak (such as getting a good defense for the playoffs), and of course even teams that are totally out of it have good reason to make trades in our league.
OTOH, how late is too late? Certainly no trades after the end of the regular season. Does it make sense to push it right up to the start of Week 14? Somehow that feels a little iffy to me, but I guess rationally there’s not much difference between that and the start of Week 13 or even Week 12 (which is our actual deadline as it stands).
Ugh, I was looking good, but the Giants’ abortive comeback screwed me a little; also out-thought myself by playing Atlanta’s DEF instead of Carolina’s, because of matchups. Now I need Gostkowski to outscore Crockett Gilmore (Baltimore’s TE, apparently) by at least 1.1 points. Probably that’s about a 50/50 proposition.
(By the way, I still don’t think we should use Kickers, but, since we do, it’s really nice to have Gostkowski. He’s won me at least a couple games.)
I’ll wait to see if anyone else chimes in, but there’s a good chance we’ll extend the trade deadline if people don’t object. The question would be till when: Next Sunday (Week 13)? The start of Week 14 (Thursday night)? The last Sunday of the Regular season? I don’t think it’s kosher to have trades after the end of the regular season, though I couldn’t say exactly why I feel that way.
I picked up Gilmore off the waiver wire after week 2 for $20. The Ravens drafted him in the 3rd round last year, and after a middling week 1 he caught 5 balls for 88 yards and 2 TDs in week 2.
He’s cooled off a bit, but over the last three weeks he’s caught 11 for 151 with 2 TDs. I’m really hoping he develops into a legit #1 TE for me.
I need Travis Benjamin to outscore the Cleveland defense by 6 points or my season is over. Yahoo projects that to be the case, but I don’t think it will be. I actually think the Cleveland defense will surprise tonight and keep Baltimore down to around 13 points with a few turnovers, and Benjamin isn’t especially likely to have a big game with McCown playing.
Well, I sure hope you’re right about Cleveleand’s D, that would make it harder for Gilmore to get the 40 yards or so that **Ellis **needs from him to beat me.
Shit, just saying it out loud makes me think I’ve got like no shot. In fact, what the hell, Yahoo? The projections think Gilmore will score 5.94 points tonight (whereas 5.97 beats me), and that **Ellis **and I are therefore exactly 50/50 to win. But that’s nuts, because Gilmore has exceed 7.8 points each of the last four weeks, and he’s *averaging *9.6 point per week on the season. Cleveland’s defense is statistically below average, and they’re middle of the pack against TEs.
Serious question: what in Yahoo’s projection algorithm would cause him to be pegged so low? They have him down for 2.8 rec. on 4.4 targets, for 30.2 yards and 0.3 TDs. His actual averages are 3.6/5.3, for 48.1/0.5. At this point in the season they should need a decent reason to project him so far below his averages. The only thing I can think of is that they’re still weighting his preseason projection pretty heavily (they projected him as the 26th TE, he’s actually been 10th on a per-game basis). Which, yeah, you want to account for regression to the mean, but that shouldn’t be a real strong force for a guy in his second year overall and first as a starter – he has no established mean to regress towards.
Ok, I’ve now spent entirely too much time thinking about this.
tl;dr: I thik there’s like a 90% chance I’m screwed this week.
Ah, Joe Flacco is out and the wonder that is late career Matt Schaub is starting for the Ravens – somehow I missed that. It would be a legitimate reason to lower Gilmore’s projection. Duh.