We shall see.
- Packers
- Bears
- Vikings
- Lions
Short, simple, and 100% accurate.
Are 1-3 within a game or two of each other?
Great breakdown, GO. I agree with virtually everything you said. This should be a really interesting year in what is, frankly, nearly always an extremely boring division. Prediction: I don’t see much reason to think the defense has improved, but Rodgers looks phenomenal.
Green Bay were the best 6-10 team I’d ever seen last year, with a powerful and well-balanced offense and… piss-poor defense. If the defense can just improve to middle-of-the-pack the Packers will win 10 games. If it can improve to top 10, they can win 12. Splitting the difference at 11-5.
The Vikings are, on paper, the best team in the NFC. This depends highly on whether two things. Most importantly, will Brett Favre know his role, shut his mouth, and stop throwing interceptions? Probably not. The question is can he avoid throwing 20 of them again. Second, can Adrian Peterson stay healthy? Probably, but he runs like he’s trying to get hurt, and Chester Taylor is solid, but not a guy who’ll carry a team. The defense will be good again, of course- as always, superb against the run but mediocre against the pass. If the Williams sisters do get suspended for four games the defense will suck, and suck badly (for those games). Prediction: Favre gets hurt, team underperforms again, Childress fired; 9-7, out of playoffs.
Da Bears are still Da Bears. They’ll play solid defense, run the ball well and suck at passing- only this time, it won’t be the quarterback’s fault. Devin Hester will no doubt catch 50 passes. Unfortunately, he’ll have to average over 20 yards per reception to turn 50 catches into #1-wideout numbers. Everyone is talking up Earl Bennett, but he’s had something like 2 catches over his first two seasons. Will somebody else step up? Maybe Greg Olsen, but it’s awfully hard for a tight end to replace a true #1 receiver. Kansas City managed it for a while, as did San Diego, but those teams had dominant running games. Matt Forte isn’t Priest Holmes and definitely isn’t LT. That said, Forte is solid, and Kevin Jones has the most upside of any backup in the division. It remains to be seen whether Olsen has Gonzalez’ or Gates’ talent. One other point- Broncos running backs caught a grand total of 40 passes last season; they had four wideouts with 40 or more catches. Forte caught 63 passes all by himself last year- his only standout attribute, to my mind. Cutler must learn to check down more often for the offense to be effective. Prediction: 8-8, but they could be 12-4 or 4-12.
Detroit. Well, the only way is up. The question is how far, and how fast? I was high on Daunte Culpepper this offseason; when motivated, he can be awfully good- and losing 30 pounds and coming to camp in the best shape he’s been in for five years was a good sign he’s motivated. Unfortunately, he cut his toe open on a freaking carpet this week and required 8 stitches, so Matt Stafford might get the starting job in Week 1 by default. If that happens, of course, Pep will never see the field. Kevin Smith ran for ~1000 yards last season despite limited playing time and a horrific offensive line. Between him and the awesome Calvin Johnson the Lions may have the makings of a strong offensive corps- if the line improves. The defense, of course, was twice as bad last year as the offense. Their collection of bad draft picks and Buccaneers castoffs underperformed the lowest possible expectations. Prediction: 5-11. The first-half schedule is brutal, but there are some winnable games later on.
Will Green Bay get through the bad feelings Favre brought. There are guys who did not want him to come in at all. Then many players resent his coming in late and disrupting everything and threatening the peace and team ethos.
Does “Season Lone” means we aren’t allowed any other NFC North threads, by the way? 
- Lions
- Bears
- Vikes
- G.Bay
Packers will implode over internal team conflict and a QB who can snatch defeat from sure victory.
Brett Favre is with the Vikings now.
But the ghost of Brett is haunting three franchises currently.
Sports Illustrated Predictions came out:
- Bears 11-5
- Vikings 10-6 (Wildcard)
- Packers 10-6 (Wildcard)
- Lions 3-13
Two wildcards from the North? Not a chance. The NFC South will have at least one and the East will likely have the other.
- Vikings (11-5)
- Packers (9-7)
- Bears (8-8)
- Lions (4-12)
ANother interesting computer based prediction on the Division
NFC NORTH W L
Vikings 10.4 5.6
Packers 9.7 6.3
Bears 8.5 7.5
Lions 3.9 12.1
Hmm, petty close to my predictions.
AccuScore is dumb. It thinks the Vikings have a better than 50% chance of winning the division, which is totally illogical. Nobody in their right mind would take the Vikings over the field.
I would in a heartbeat if I knew that Peterson and Favre were going to stay healthy. When you factor in the likelihood of one or both of them getting hurt, it gets pretty iffy.
Also, ISTM that the field is just Green Bay and Chicago. I wouldn’t have a huge problem with putting the odds at 50-25-25.
It’s not illogical. Folks are risk averse. They generally would need a much better than 50/50 chance to take that fit.
The Lions were leading in several games late in the 4th quarter last year. They could have won 4 or 5. If they pick up a few more they "could go all the way’. It does not take much to win the central sometimes. They have to break even on a tough 6 game start.
If you lived in the Detroit area ,you too would learn to do weird thinking. They have got to win sometime. My sons 28 so he never saw a good Lion team in his life. …But he saw Barry Sanders.
Lions are beating Buffalo 17 to 6. Go to ticket office immediately and reserve playoff tickets.
Do you think the Lions will make it past the first round ?
I fucking hate you.
If Miami can go from 1-15 to 11-5, I see no reason the Lions couldn’t go from 0-16 to 10-6.