Season Long NFC North Discussion Thread

[Gangster_Octopus]

@cricetus

You misunderstand the rules of random distribution over a small sample.

Look at this way. Do you think if every time you draw four cards from a deck, two will be red and two will be black? Do you furthermore suppose that two will be over seven and two will be below seven, every single time? Obviously not. The very fact that it’s random means it is not likely to be be well distributed. So it goes with officiating errors, even if they were random. Not that human beings are perfect random number generators, anyway.

The fact is that sloppy, amateur (literally, unpaid) referring in football really does have a huge impact on games. Yes, yes, I know the ritualistic shaming of anyone who brings up sloppy reffing after a loss, but it doesn’t address the issue or refute the argument. It’s just an ad hominem attack.

NFL referees are paid, I don’t know why you think they aren’t.

[tnetennba]

It’s part time/temporary work, not a profession. So I shouldn’t have said “unpaid.”

[Omniscient]

@cricetus

You misunderstand the rules of random distribution over a small sample.

Look at this way. Do you think if every time you draw four cards from a deck, two will be red and two will be black? Do you furthermore suppose that two will be over seven and two will be below seven, every single time? Obviously not. The very fact that it’s random means it is not likely to be be well distributed. So it goes with officiating errors, even if they were random. Not that human beings are perfect random number generators, anyway.

The fact is that sloppy, amateur (literally, unpaid) referring in football really does have a huge impact on games. Yes, yes, I know the ritualistic shaming of anyone who brings up sloppy reffing after a loss, but it doesn’t address the issue or refute the argument. It’s just an ad hominem attack.

@cricetus

I just know the facts of the case, which I observed: a receiver pushed to the turf here, a receiver hit out of bounds there, a defender knocking down a QB without a ball here, and two handfulls of facemask, not one of which was called a penalty. Now, overall the refs didn’t throw a lot of flags, but they could have in all of those cases and definitely should have in a couple where even the announcers commented on it. That’s just known facts. I don’t have any conclusion from it, I just observed it. That’s all.

I’ve seen my own teams get bad calls and I’ll own up to it when the do. It doesn’t change the scoreboard. I don’t feel compromised by doing it. I guess I just never bought the premise that it’s somehow unprincipled to critique the officiating.

Come off it. I watched the same game and had about a dozen calls against the Bears that I wasn’t happy with. This pissy little whining is silly and you seem to be having an issue with the definition of the word “fact”. The Bears receivers were hit early and “interfered” will all game long, especially the TEs over the middle. Cutler took as many “late hits” as Favre did and Brown, Adams, Harris and Anderson were “held” often. Watch the replay link Sinaijon posted above and watch the passing plays in the second half where Favre was moving up the field, Anderson, Harris and Gilbert were all “held” on various passing plays.

The only “fact” here is that these calls are subjective and open to interpretation by the refs. The game on the whole was very loosely called and very few flags were thrown. To imply that somehow the Vikes were hosed is disingenuous and deluded.

Occasionally there are big calls missed and occasionally they swing games. To this day I think last years Super Bowl was badly officiated and it affected the game. But in this game that’s not the case it’s sour grapes and nothing more. Usually when the only people bitching about calls are the losing teams fans it’s safe to assume that it’s pissy whining, if there was a raft of unbiased observers voicing opinions then maybe I’ll spend a little energy looking at it.

[unwashed_brain]

@Diogenes_the_Cynic

He was correcting your grammar. “Affect” is the verb, “effect” is the noun.

Effect is also an effective verb, when used correctly.

[DSYoungEsq]

@cricetus

You misunderstand the rules of random distribution over a small sample.

Look at this way. Do you think if every time you draw four cards from a deck, two will be red and two will be black? Do you furthermore suppose that two will be over seven and two will be below seven, every single time? Obviously not. The very fact that it’s random means it is not likely to be be well distributed. So it goes with officiating errors, even if they were random. Not that human beings are perfect random number generators, anyway.

The fact is that sloppy, amateur (literally, unpaid) referring in football really does have a huge impact on games. Yes, yes, I know the ritualistic shaming of anyone who brings up sloppy reffing after a loss, but it doesn’t address the issue or refute the argument. It’s just an ad hominem attack.

It’s little, bitchy whining, is what it is.

And I do know something about math, being as how I teach it, yanno. What you seem to fail to understand is that the sample size is much larger than you estimate. Indeed, the way the rules are written, a penalty could be called on almost every single play of an NFL game. All it takes is being hardline on holding, or on PI, or on what movement at the line will draw a flag, or on …

Thus, there are something like 75+ chances during the course of a game for an official to throw a flag which he doesn’t, to say nothing of the 10 - 15 times during a game that they do throw a flag. And then you add in the fact that the ball has to be correctly spotted on every single play. Sure, it might appear egregious when they spot the ball someplace you didn’t think they should have on third down or fourth down within less than a foot of the first down line, but it was equally egregious if they missed the spot on first down, when the running back was stuffed at the line for a 1-yard gain.

So there are literally HUNDREDS of potentially “missed” or “blown” referee decisions in a game, if you wish to be picky about it. And over such a sample size, the chance that the sample is strongly biased in favor of one team over the other, without there being actual bias on the part of the officials, is relatively small. Thus, if you whine about how your team was constantly being jobbed by the officials, you are putting your quiche eating status seriously in question.

ETA: Let’s also address this silly meme that the officials are somehow poorer for being part-time. What the hell do you think they would be doing during the week that would make them be better? It’s not like they have other opportunities to referee and thus become more proficient from doing it more often. They are paid specialists, who, because they only have to work one day a week, are able to work two jobs if they want. The fact that MLB, NHL, and NBA referees work more games during a week, and are therefor not “part-time” in season is meaningless in comparison.

[tnetennba]

Sigh.

[EllisDee]

@DSYoungEsq

Thus, there are something like 75+ chances during the course of a game for an official to throw a flag which he doesn’t, to say nothing of the 10 - 15 times during a game that they do throw a flag.

There are generally around 130 plays per game, 65 per offense.

[Sinaijon]

@Omniscient

The incidental facemask no longer exists.

I did not know that. Huh.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@DSYoungEsq

ETA: Let’s also address this silly meme that the officials are somehow poorer for being part-time. What the hell do you think they would be doing during the week that would make them be better? It’s not like they have other opportunities to referee and thus become more proficient from doing it more often. They are paid specialists, who, because they only have to work one day a week, are able to work two jobs if they want. The fact that MLB, NHL, and NBA referees work more games during a week, and are therefor not “part-time” in season is meaningless in comparison.

It might give them time to learn the rulebook. It’s absolutely shocking how often NFL referees make incorrect calls because they don’t know the rules - see the Hasselbeck illegal blocking call from the Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl, by way of example.

[tnetennba]

Only a guy with withered testicals, a Hello Kitty lunchbox, and the complete Celine Dion collection on his iPod would make one’s position on a trivial argument about sport into a test of one’s manhood.

[Sinaijon]

@DSYoungEsq

So there are literally HUNDREDS of potentially “missed” or “blown” referee decisions in a game, if you wish to be picky about it. And over such a sample size, the chance that the sample is strongly biased in favor of one team over the other, without there being actual bias on the part of the officials, is relatively small.

Not all samples are equal, though. A missed pass interference on second down can be overcome. A missed pass interference on 3rd down can not. There is a disparate impact for some penalties calls/noncalls.

Even disregarding that, it is very likely for a sample to be biased. If you flip a coin 100 times, there is 68% chance that there will be between 45 and 55 heads, which would allow for a noticeable bias. And there is a 32% chance that the flips will be strongly biased either heads or tails.

Translating that to football terms, even if potential penalties opportunities were perfectly balanced between the two teams, 1 out of 3 games would have a strong bias in penalties towards 1 team.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@cricetus

Only a guy with withered testicals, a Hello Kitty lunchbox, and the complete Celine Dion collection on his iPod would make one’s position on a trivial argument about sport into a test of one’s manhood.

Didn’t you just make it about manhood?

[Gangster_Octopus]

Well, I guess we can say good-bye to this thread.

[tnetennba]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

Didn’t you just make it about manhood?

Maybe you should (a) read up thread, and (b) change your username to “Really not all that able to recognize irony.”

[DSYoungEsq]

And I object. I do NOT have the complete Celine Dion collection on my iPod.

I don’t have an iPod

[Sinaijon]

Regarding the Favre-Childress Media controversy: I get email updates from the local papers. They both sent them out this week with the subjects: “Former QB with Super Bowl ring says Favre knows more than Childress” and “ESPN analyst says Favre knows more than Childress”

So I click on the links. Who is this knowledge analysist with real world experience? Trent Dilfer. Best quote from him? "Think whatever you want about Trent Dilfer. But when I was playing, I was one of the best in the world. (Coaches) can’t figure that out. They don’t get it. "

LMAO. Yeah, Trent DIfler. You were the best of the world. (Shouted while riding on Ray Lewis’s shoulders)

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

He nearly passed for 3,000 yards with the Buccaneers one time, and he almost has more touchdowns than interceptions.

He’s kind of got a point, though - I mean, he was almost certainly one of the 50 best quarterbacks in the world when he was playing.

[kenobi_65]

@Sinaijon

I did not know that. Huh.

Yeah, they got rid of it a couple of seasons ago.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@cricetus

Maybe you should (a) read up thread, and (b) change your username to “Really not all that able to recognize irony.”

It’s implied.

[unwashed_brain]

Alright - did anybody guess this correctly? I had the order of finish correct at least.

Actual end of year standings:

1. Vikings (12-4)
2. Packers (11-5)
3. Bears (7-9)
4. Lions (2-14)

@unwashed_brain

1. Vikings (11-5)
2. Packers (9-7)
3. Bears (8-8)
4. Lions (4-12)

Thanks to most of the NFC East for giving the Vikings the #2 seed back today. We sure as hell did our part today.

Also, anyone have Favre for 4000+ yards, 33TDs, 7 INTs?