He’s a garden-variety bust. On a high draft pick. For a quarterback.
I hate football.
Seasons Attempts YPA Comp %
------- -------- --- ------
2 650+ 6.9 59.7
14 600-649 6.8 59.7
45 550-599 7.1 59.9
90 500-549 7.1 59.2
121 450-499 7.1 58.6
108 400-449 6.9 57.7
107 350-399 6.9 57.0
101 300-349 6.9 56.8
97 250-299 6.8 55.7
97 200-249 6.7 55.6
Looks like it is indeed the case that the more you want to throw the more accurate you have to be.
As shown by two bits of data in this thread alone, you are wrong.
First, Starr threw for fewer attempts than Manning, but Manning’s completion percentages are routinely higher.
Second, Ellis Dee’s data shows that the trend is for higher completionn percentages with increased attempts per season, not the other way.
You are still wrong.
@ cricetus: the word you want is commensurate, not comiserate. 
@ Ellis Dee: One caution with that data, it includes both good and bad quarterbacks. Bad quarterbacks would have both poor completion rates and fewer attempts, as teams rely upon a running game to compensate. So the numbers down at the bottom end drop off, not surprisingly, I think.
We would expect completion percentages to go up with passing attempts in most cases, because the easiest way to increase the number of passes is to use the pass in place of identical running plays, e.g.: the swing pass replacing the old Packer sweep. Such passes have a higher completion percentage. What appears to be interesting is that increasing such attempts does not in fact reduce YPA. Though I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised, as I’ve seen a number of teams use the swing pass and its brethren quite effectively to gain chunks of territory.
It’s also easier to go 20-30% over the short term. Lots of QBs will start a game 1-4 or so.
In a sense, you are right that the standard deviation can be higher for fewer attempts, but it goes in both directions.
And if you take a step back and look at it, the higher attempts is probably a result of higher completion %, not the reverse. If you have a QB like Spergon Wynn, you ain’t gonna throw 50 times in a game.
He’s not going to play for 19 years. Even if he was going to, that’s a silly argument. The Packers weren’t choosing between Brett Favre 4 years in and Aaron Rodgers 4 years in; they were choosing between Brett Favre 17 years in and Aaron Rodgers 4 years in.
Passing yardage is certainly boosted by playing from behind. Passer ratings certainly aren’t; a team playing from behind is one dimensional, and defenders key on the pass. This means more deep safeties, and more incompletions and interceptions. Anyway, you can hardly blame the Packers’ record on Rodgers; he played brilliantly in 2008, and the defense played poorly.
Tom Brady’s numbers are generally pretty awesome, and the Patriots are rarely playing from behind. Peyton Manning’s numbers are generally pretty awesome, and the Colts are rarely behind.
This Buccaneers fan didn’t want Favre in 2008, but would have taken Rodgers in a heartbeat.
Off topic, but that is my least favorite play in football - the empty backfield in short-yardage situations. At least make the defense think you might run. Adding a fifth receiver when you’re three yards from the endzone just makes the passing lanes more crowded anyway.
That’s a pretty good point.
Apparently the Bears are talking to none other than supergenius Mike Martz to take over their offensive coordinator position. That could be fascinating. Give him a group of underacheiveing, high potential players like Cutler, Hester, and Forte, and maybe he can work some magic.
I’m officially intrigued.
Even in Detroit Martz had Roy Williams. The Bears aren’t going anywhere even with Bill Walsh running the offense unless they find a true #1 wideout.
And with that tattered O line he could get Cutler killed. I’m not a fan of Martz, though his addition could very well lead to a early exit for Lovie if things implode under his watch. We’ll see, since he left St Louis I’ve seen little to verify his credentials as an offensive genius.
Though, I will concede that our WR group looks similar to the guys he used so well in St Louis with a group of smallish, fast elusive guys. Knox plays the Holt role, Aromashodu plays the Bruce role and Hester plays the Az Hakim role. Those guys were all Pro Bowlers but I suppose it’s not impossible that these guys could break out given enough balls. Forte’s receiving skills obviously would be an asset.
Al Saunders is supposedly getting an interview too. I think I’d prefer him over Martz since I think he’d have a much better chance of coexisting with Cutler.
The original rumors of Jeremy Bates coming seem to be killed by this Carroll to Seattle mess which is a disappointment, but maybe he’ll end up in the middle of a bidding war. We’ll see.
I can kind of see Forte as Marshall Faulk. I’m definitely not seeing Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu as Ike Bruce and Torry Holt.
I wouldn’t worry about the offensive line, though- Martz’ system worked just fine in Detroit, and their line was even worse than yours.
They have similar frames and skill sets. They obviously don’t have any credentials but it’s easy to imagine Martz envisioning them stepping right into the same playbook. It’s unclear how important “type” is to the roles in Martz’s scheme.
Did it work? I seem to remember Kitna getting slaughtered back there regularly. A quick check reveals sack totals of 63 and 51 and INTs totals over 20. Not a great recipe for Cutler. He’s tough but he makes mistakes under pressure.
He’s going to be under pressure regardless of the scheme. At least Martz will only have him running three step drops.
Really. Other than being … human and being … able to occasionally catch a football, I’m not seeing it. Faulk had speed, elusiveness, some nifty moves, the ability to cut on a dime, and great acceleration.
Forte has … well … he’s human.
The Martz offense was completely different from what we saw/were used to in Detroit. Even now, it’s still more advanced than what we had, although Martz did fall in love with the pass, leaving lots of time on the clock.
I wish we would have kept Martz.
He’s closer to approximating Marshall Faulk than Johnny Knox and Devin Aromatherapy are to being Ike Bruce and Torry Holt.
The Bears are interviewing their first choices on Monday and Tuesday. Wonder if we’ll have news this week.
What a crazy-ass game, packer fans. I’m terribly glad there will be no revenge-f*ck game versus Favre and the Vikings this year.
As the Vikings are the last team alive in the NFC Norris, I expect all of you to be rooting for the Vikings next weekend.*
*this is apparently how it works in SEC country.
You ARE joking, right? 
I’m glad there will be no stupid quasi-soap-opera coverage of it. I’m a little disappointed there won’t be an actual game.
I would be terrified of the Cardinals were I the rest of the NFC. Remember, they did all that without Boldin.
On the bright side, 11-5 is a heck of a lot better than 6-10. And coming from 17 (21?) points behind to make it a tie game is not too shabby (getting that far behind, on the other hand …)
Brian
I missed the last play of the game. Was the facemask on Rodgers that egregious?