Abdul el-Sayed demonstrates the right way to answer these kinds of questions.
Cut quite badly-
El-Sayed: "People don’t care about what sports kids play… I played sports my whole life. Sports were an important part of my life. I’m grateful for the opportunity to play sports.
"At the end of the day, the decision of who gets to play sports ought to be decided by the people who govern sports.
But yeah, that would be a great answer, and his longer answer was not bad at all. But note that-
At the end of the day, the decision of who gets to play sports ought to be decided by the people who govern sports.
Well, yes and no. It seems that Trump’s policies and the effects of his administration are quite unpopular, but Trump himself* still has a stubborn fan base such that association with him can help some candidates. Raw “approval rating” misses this distinction, as it blends the two.
This is discussed early in the first full segment of Still Counting, the new podcast of Nate Silver, Galen Druke, and Claire Malone.
*I think it’s basically because, no matter what he says, does, or causes to happen, he will always be a symbol of anti-woke, white grievance, pwn-the-libs hypernationalism.
Senator Roger Marshall had a rather tough go during a debate yesterday at the Kansas State Fair. The raucous crowd was decidedly in favor of his opponent, Adam Hamilton, and interrupted Marshall several times with boos and chants.
Last Wednesday, Marshall posted on X: “Comment how you will spend your $5,000 Trump Dividend when Republicans win in November.” Yesterday, however, he said he hadn’t yet made a decision if he supported the dividends.
“I’m going to bring in all the information, and then make a decision,” he said. “But look, this is not the first time I’ve disagreed with President Trump and it probably won’t be the last.”
Actually, Rog, it might be the first time you’ve disagreed with the president.
Link to The Hill
I don’t know if I’m tacking something on to your point or merely restating it, but: is it possible that it’s an attempt to send a signal? That it’s people saying, look, until you start selling what we want, we’re going to keep backing the guy who’s selling what we want; is that not clear yet?
Yes, you’re just restating his point.
True, you’re restating it, but I like that you added “selling.” Indeed.
To bring us back to the thread: Trump’s approval rating is down to about 39% - but this is a blend of “perceived effects of Trump’s presidency” and “perceived symbolism of Trump himself.” I would guess each of these things in isolation is around 5% away from that 39% – the first one around 34%, the latter one around 44%.
In the Still Counting podcast I linked to (the “Trump vs. the Blue Wave” episode), go to 49:30. Galen Druke suggests that, when Trump himself is in the spotlight (like in the silly “convention” a few days ago), it distracts voters from the shitty state of the country and the world, which benefits Republican midterm candidates.
How does this affect specific Senate races? In the podcast, among other races, they discuss New Hampshire (leaning Dem, but Sununu is narrowing the gap) and Iowa (quite likely Rep, but if the Dems really do ride a blue tsunami, Iowa would be a bellwether). Here and in several other states*, it might come down to how many low-information voters show up for a midterm – and what their mood is. Are the lowest-information voters that most likely to instinctively vote for the “party of Trump” (the symbol), regardless of the state of the country – or are a substantial number of them just going to vote for change (kick out the incumbent party)? We probably won’t know until after Election Day, because these folks are also less likely to respond to polls.
(*@Railer13 , they also briefly discuss Kansas – which hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1924!)
Not quite right, although still terrible: Democrat George McGill was elected to fill a Senate seat in 1930, then won re-election in 1932. He was defeated in his re-election bid in 1938. So once he left office in early 1939, we haven’t had a Democratic senator. McGill is one of only three(!) Democrats ever elected Senator from Kansas, and the first two were elected by the state legislature, before the 17th amendment was ratified.
This is worth highlighting as the big wildcard.
Trump last cycle got a varied bag of lower information, lower voter likelihood, lower probability of polling participation potential voters to get off their asses and vote for him: including some young and Hispanic voters, and many non-college educated men but not only them.
Polls don’t see them as they don’t participate and when reached out to. And when they do their answer about intent to vote may not be so predictive.
These are people possibly buying the promise of $5K if the GOP wins. And people overwhelmingly disillusioned by Trump’s performance. And people who could easily just want to vote for any disruptive change. No one can know. But they will likely behave the same way across the country and decide what way midterms land, by if they participate and if so what way they vote.
They could do the coming out to signal with a “Trump vote” … or to signal by voting against any Trump aligned candidates. Or stay home. Polling cannot tell us. Probably stay home?
Yes, good point, but that is why i said "not reliable’- trumps support can help, true, but not always.
New poll-
Trump’s approval among college graduates fell from 34 percent in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted August 21-24 to 31 percent in its August 28-31 survey. It dropped again to 30 percent in the poll conducted September 4-8. Over the same period, disapproval rose from 63 percent to 69 percent, widening Trump’s net deficit with the group from 29 points to 39 points.The shift is politically significant because college graduates have become an increasingly important part of the Democratic coalition, while Trump’s 2024 victory was powered more heavily by voters without four-year degrees. About two-thirds of Trump’s voters did not have a college degree, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. By contrast, college graduates accounted for 48 percent of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters.
Yes, good point, but I think gas prices- at least now- is info every driver has.
derail deleted.
I’m friends online with several politically outspoken trans people who comment vehemently at every instance of transphobia in politics. It keeps them busy. They’ve had nothing to say against Talarico. If it doesn’t bother them, it doesn’t bother me either. Keeping it in perspective.
I am quite slow to say that a Trumper is dumb, but this viral video clip from yesterday’s fisheries-topic debate between Mary Petolta and Dan Sullivan for the Alaska senate seat sure makes it look that way:
I thought it was an interesting way to get answers from the debaters. Instead of letting them pontificate while answering the question, it’s a quick yes-or-no format. Definitely old school.
Osborn Ahead by 4 points in the latest Nebraska poll.
Poll result from Montana:
Alme (R) 38%
Bodnar (I) 30%
Bankhead (D) 16%
Austin (L) 5%
The D party wanted Bankhead to drop out before the deadline to remove her name from the ballot. She refused, otherwise Bodnar would likely be ahead.
Absolute missed opportunity. Dems probably should have gamed this out better like they did in SD and NE. (And Utah in 22). Hopefully they learn from this. We’ll certainly have a lot more opportunities for “independent” candidates in 2028.
The Dems can’t force someone to drop out.
Officially or an unofficial request? Looks unofficial-
in which several high-profile Democrats pressured Bankhead to drop out early enough not to appear on the general election ballot.
Right, The Voters decide.
I think the state parties in NE (and presumably SD) did a good job finding candidates who explicitly communicated to the voters that their goal in getting nominated is to clear the field of an independent candidate.
It’s a situation where a plan and early investment to help distinguish the team player that can do that, like a trusted figure within the party. That could insulate you from a random wildcard on the ballot tanking your shot at a nearly priceless senate seat.