Also Idaho. I don’t see much chance in SD and ID, but and (I) is better than a (D) after the name in those states.
Emerson College Poll has Adam Hamilton up by 2 points over Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race. That’s a statistical tie, but still a good sign for Team Blue.
Another statistical tie, this time in Florida, which is very surprising. Ashley Moody (R) and Angie Nixon (D) each poll at 45%. Also, a tie for Governor between Bryan Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) at about 43.5%.
Part of me is heartened by these polls, but if I’m honest most of me is feeling it’s gonna be this:
These polls are outliers. Until we start seeing multiple polls in these races with similar results there is no reason to assume this is an actual trend. Democrats leading in races in Florida in particular are reasons for doubt.
Oh man, don’t hit me with those negative waves. Have a little faith, man, have a little faith.
Looking at reality is not the same as “negative waves”.
“Texas is turning purple/blue” has been a mantra for at least 10 years.
Could the D’s turn some seats/offices in TX this time? Maybe. But the track record suggests not.
There are times faith and fantasy are closely aligned.
And I suspect Talarico will lose by a very close margin helped by Dan Patrick and Abbott finding a way to toss some votes.
There you go, more negative waves.
(You know who I’m quoting, right?)
That was kind of an oddball thing to say.
Donald Sutherland from Kelly’s Heroes is my best guess regarding “negative waves”.
But he’s dead and Abbott/Patrick aren’t.
ETA: Love @Railer13 for that.
Maybe this will boost your spirits about the election:
So the biggest factors that helped Texas stay red over and over is that Mexican-American voters have been drifting right, and suburbs, while bluer than they were prior to 2016, are still more stubbornly Republican than other equivalent places in other states.
The thing that is really fueling the sense that this might be apocalyptic for GOP is that suburbanites and Hispanics are trending much much more Democratic this cycle.
Could it all be a mirage? Sure. But polling never aligned so thoroughly with an optimistic outcome. And that polling is in line with an abysmal approval rating (far worse than 2018) for Trump.
The simple fact is that Talarico (and maybe Hinojosa, fingers crossed) wouldn’t be in the position to win in TX if we weren’t in an environment where perniciously red states like IA, KS, NE, and SC weren’t also polling 10-15 points more democratic than 2024.
Over a decade ago I started dreaming of a blue Texas (the “it’ll never happen” people can go eff themselves) but in my wildest I thought that 2028 was the rock bottom earliest it could happen. I guess I couldn’t imagine the GOP going off the rails the way it did. The Republicans have always been mean but generally pretty smart at politics.
Buried in that Kos article that dtilque posted above was an interesting tidbit: alcohol use has dropped from 67% to 54% since 2022 while weed use is up ten points, from 7% to 17%, since 2013.
I think it’s the suburbs where the biggest problem for Democrats is at. The RGV and deep South Texas used to be reliably blue as recently as 2022. My guess is that they’ll go back to the D side this year, in part due to Bobby Pulido’s name recognition the RGV (he’s a well known Tejano singer running against an unpopular Republican incumbent in the House district that includes the western half of the RGV). It’s the suburbs of Houston, Dallas, and Austantonio (IMHO the whole I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin is one giant suburb) that for some reason, as you say, stay stubbornly Republican. My guess is that is due to Republican leaning upper middle class voters moving to Texas from New York and California. Will Talarico win? My guess right now is that he has a 55/45 chance.
I wish I could dig up an article I read a couple of years ago, possibly in a conservative periodical, concerned about what it called “the spine of Texas,” the I-35 corridor which is where much of the population growth is occurring. And which keeps turning less red with each election.
Whoever the author was said that a Republican Texas was doomed if that trend continued. My optimism is tempered by a belief that Texas will become a purple state in the near future, with the GOP winning its share once it has rid itself of the klepto nutjob element, a big ask there. But the battle will be fought in Texas in the next decade because Republicans risk a long term shutout of the White House if both California AND Texas are voting Democrat.
One of the big things that sank California and Virginia’s GOP when the state shifted left, was that instead of treating the more challenging environment as a reason to clean up their act, the state parties became very extreme.
Based on how Texas Republicans have been acting even before a single Dem won state wide, I could see them really sabotaging themselves.
They’ve been able to spend the last 26 years throwing red meat to primary voters, they’ve never had to defend their ideas.
Longer than that. I’d say it goes back to 1994 and the Gingrich revolution, which was the year when Bush Jr. beat Ann Richards for governor of Texas. Yes, I’m old enough to remember a time when Democrats could win state wide office in Texas 
Virginia made the fastest red-to-blue shift I’ve ever seen. Between 2006 and 2008, the commonwealth became blue practically overnight. I remember a polling place campaigner remarking in the 2006 election that he’d recently seen Loudoun County turn purple, and Loudoun is a bellwether for Virginia if anyplace is. Next thing you know, we’re a cerulean azure ultramarine sapphire.
“RGV” = “Rio Grande Valley”? Texans might take that acronym for granted, but it’s not part of the vocabulary of most of the nation.
Somehow I missed this news from about a week ago. I don’t know how much influence Carlson has anymore, but it can’t be bad for El-Sayed.