There was no option that fit my position – I was never “sure” that Trump would not win, but I thought it very unlikely; I’m still not sure, and I still think it’s unlikely, but probably not quite as unlikely as I did last summer/fall.
I think the betting markets are close to reasonable, if perhaps a bit overestimating Trump, and I’d put Trump at a 20-25% or so likelihood of becoming President.
Trump is like watching a drunk driver. You know it’s just a matter of time before he’s in a major accident.
They are reasonable most of the times.
I’m fairly confident that Clinton will win but Trump’s chances are obviously north of zero. I don’t doubt that the Clinton campaign is taking it seriously so there isn’t much for me to do but watch and maybe flip her a few bucks now and then.
Speaking of, I’m always amused by people saying “You need to start taking Trump seriously!”. I do? I mean, I think I am but ultimately what I think about Trump’s chances means nothing. It’s not like I’m going to say “Oh, shit! Trump!” and start my own super PAC. On the other hand, from what I’ve read, Camp Clinton has been preparing for a possible Trump nomination since he announced last June.
He may have given a couple of wrong comments but he is the most reasonable and most honest candidate out there I think, that America needs.
The Trump voters will go harder to Trump, the Clinton voters will go harder to Clinton, and God knows what the undecideds will do - it may depend on how the candidates react, what the attack was, how the undecideds were leaning before the attack, media coverage, the weather on the day…
Based on the fact-checkers, he’s been by far the most dishonest and inaccurate candidate of all. By far – he’s been incredibly dishonest and factually wrong about things – more than 3/4s of his factual assertions have been incorrect, or outright lies.
And in my opinion, he’s been by far the most unreasonable candidate. So I rate him as incredibly dishonest, incredibly inaccurate, and incredibly unreasonable, and I think he would greatly weaken America.
Yeah, that’s pretty much where I am. But not so much a gaffe like that, which I think is survivable. It’s just that Hillary is such a terrible* campaigner, and Trump seems to be immune to things that destroy other candidates. The race is hers to lose, and unfortunately she could be just the person to do it.
*OK, maybe “mediocre” is a better descriptor. But in any case, she’s not good at it.
It’s hard to put your finger on just what it is that she doesn’t have, but she doesn’t have it. Maybe she lacks the ability to sound forceful without sounding strident. Maybe she’s incapable of expressing warmth. She’s easily the worst public speaker of any notable politician. I remember in her announcement speech on Roosevelt Island she said she was running on four principles and as hard as I tried to follow her, I didn’t catch a single one of them. She’d be better off miming the words as Bill Clinton speaks offstage. She’s bright, she’s hard working, she’s generally on the right side of issues, she’s neither liberal nor conservative, she’s essentially everything middle America says they want- but they don’t.
As Bill Maher put it (a little earlier in the campaign where it was a bit more relevant):
We put up a black guy with a Muslim name, and now an aging, Jewish socialist. We’re making it as easy for you as we can !!
What she lacks is authenticity. In much the same way that Romney did. People don’t trust her to not change with the wind. SNL has captured the sense perfectly in the recurring character sketches.
When it was Trump and the 15 I thought the contest would come down to Trump vs Bush based on name recognition. So I didn’t think it was out of the realm of possibility he’d be the Republican candidate. I did think it was a long shot.
Now that he is the Republican nominee I am mostly ambivalent about Trump as a president. I’d vote for Trump just to deny the Democrats more nominees in the courts. That’s the biggest issue long term. However, Hillary is much more of a known quantity and she should be relatively friendly to pro business/pro growth interests. So I doubt I’d be too concerned with Clinton and her man(Hillary Clinton Shapes Potential New Role for Bill Clinton - The New York Times) back in charge. The only real worry is Sanders. He symbolizes a sickness in America.
The Rubiobot, lol. But you are right. Can’t deny any of the above. Too much ego led to Trump. I still don’t this being bad for a democracy though.
I thought there was no chance he would get the GOP nomination. Take that FWIW, and tremble.
Regards,
Shodan
I really wish you had made this a public poll (I voted that I’m not worried and never have been because Trump will never be elected).
I didn’t expect him to get this far, but I didn’t underestimate him either. I overestimated the GOP’s ability to stop him. Already mentioned is Hillary’s problem in campaigns, she has never been able to hold a lead, or reverse a downward trend in an election.
I’ve been worried since the beginning that one of the candidates running this year would become president. Nothing about that has changed.
What do you call a bunch of people who are dumb as a sack of hammers and to whom facts absolutely do not matter?
Eligible Voters
I’ve alwasy been a bit worried, due to there basically being only two practical options once you get the general election. Being one of the two viable candidates left standing gives one credibility, whether earned or not.
At that point, I’m afraid I have to side with the oft-misquoted H. L. Mencken:
[Quote=]
“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
[/quote]
I remain grateful that you, personally, have no say in the matter.
Looks like she held onto her lead in 2000.
Looks like she held onto her lead and 2006, and it was one of the largest margins of victory in New York history.
Looks like she lost her lead in 2008.
Looks like she’s either held onto her lead in 2016 so far, or it’s at a “reversal of a downward trend” (I’m not clear exactly how you are defining these things).
You say honest, I think of Trump University. Yeah, honest means what again?