I’m worried, but no more worried than I was for Romney and Obama, and no more worried than I am for Clinton. Only a bit worried. There are more important things to worry about.
For those legitimately afraid of Trump, I understand. If Hillary picks a desperate choice like Sanders or Warren for VP, be worred, her campaign likely knows something you don’t. If she picks a safe choice, calm down.
If Trump picks a safe choice, particularly a choice with deep establishment tentacles, be afraid.
Heh. You know, there are excellent reasons to not give too much weight to Trump pulling ahead of Clinton in this or that recent national poll – but, as you note, even if that is real and enduring, it maybe wouldn’t matter, because EC advantage.
Or, as Sam Lowry put it upthread,
…which is true, right? If she loses every state Obama lost, and also loses Florida and Virginia and New Hampshire and Michigan, then she’s the President, right?
And I think we all know how gracious Trump and his followers will be if they win the popular vote but not the Electoral College.
I’m pretty sure Trump is winning independents in the latest polls.
The Electoral College map only matters if the popular vote is within a point or two.
If Clinton picks a progressive outsider for running mate, that’s dangerous. But if Trump picks an establishment running mate, that’s dangerous. What’s your reasoning here?!
Michigan strikes me as an odd choice, unless you’re just trying to craft an EC map that gives a narrow Clinton victory. Take a look at this chart. Michigan is a solidly blue state. More solid, at least, than Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin and Minnesota. I’ll make a prediction right now that if Clinton loses Michigan, she’ll also lose quite a few of those that I list, and gets crushed in the Electoral College vote.
If there is anything worse than a two party system it is a one party system…
That being said I have never voted for a winning presidential candidate and think I am unlikely to ever have that pleasure. This is because of the increased fundamental radicalization of the Republican party and changing demographics…
It’s the one Oredigger77 mentioned, along with New Hampshire, on a previous page; I shrugged and went with those and chose to throw in Virginia and Florida.
People keep thinking that when I want the Republican Party gone it means that I don’t want more than one party. This is not the case. I want a second party, but it would be better for it to be to the left of the Democrats. The Democrats are PLENTY right of center. The radically reactionary views of the Republicans need to be pushed to the fringe, where they can’t have any power.
Fair enough. Here is a map with the dozen states at the ideological center of the country that you could fiddle with. I can conceive of lots of scenarios where either candidate wins, but if either Trump loses North Carolina or Clinton loses Michigan, they’re in for a bad night.
QFT. As Trump said himself, he’d have to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue for his fans to turn against him. But I think they’d even rally behind him if he shot someone–they’d tout him as a Second Amendment champion.
The biggest problem on the left, as I see it, is that they keep underestimating him.
People prolly keep misunderestimating him (:p) because people keep mis-quoting him. 
For instance, he didn’t say what you said he said; [he said that even if he shot someone he wouldn’t lose voters:
](I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters)(Video at that link, btw.)
Even without shooting someone, Trump is a Second Amendment champion. And Hillary is making herself out to be the enemy of the right of the people to keep and bear arms. On that issue at least, there’s a very clear contrast between the two parties.
When was the last time the NRA endorsed a Democratic president? People who vote based on genuflecting before the Second Half of the Second Amendment while totally ignoring the first half are going to vote Republican like they have done for each and every prior election in their lives. Doesn’t make any difference how Donald tries to pass himself off as a redneck.
None of your links work, but I thought that was the very point I was making.
ETA: I was paraphrasing, not quoting
No, but these types of racist characterizations of Second Amendment proponents by Second Amendment opponents do make a difference. They drive people away from the left faster than a full grown tranny in the little girls room.
. . . are entirely fair, by and large. The same white people who tote rifles in public would scream for the cops if they saw a black doing the same – we may hope; they might do something worse.
Your paraphrase was the opposite of what he said.
You are wrong. The sort of people that would OC a rifle (that’s pretty far out on the extreme gun-rights supporter side of the spectrum) would be very unlikely to complain about anyone carrying a gun.
Whoops! Sorry about that; here ya go: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/23/politics/donald-trump-shoot-somebody-support/
Aye; that was my point.
