So I have the first pick in my fantasy draft...

The Game Room
1

…and I’m leaning toward Turner. Am I nuts?

ATL has a tough schedule, but the outlier that is Detroit completely screwed up the SOS calculus–the other three NFC North teams are 30-32 because of Detroit.

Favre kinda throws a wrench in things. I’m not sure if he’s an overall good thing for Purple Jesus or not. I think Favre is actually sort of a shitty game manager, which is what they’ll (if they’re smart) be asking him to do. He tries to take too much of the offense on his shoulders, given that he’s approximately 742 years old. He’s good for one great game for every 3 multiple-interception cringefests. And AP is due for an injury…

Turner is solid, more experienced, and has a better offense around him, I think.

Please, try to talk me out of this. You have until Thursday.

2

Knocks on Turner are:

The curse of 370! This is coined from the Football Outsider’s discovery that any back that carries more than 370 times in a season faces a severe production dropoff in the next season. The counter to the curse theory is Peterson had 363 this past season and nobody is predicting a down year for him. Does 7 carries matter?

Matt Ryan was good last season and will be even better this season, especially if he learns how to read NFL zone packages. With the addition of Tony Gonzalez and the presumed continued excellence of Roddy White, the Falcons should pass more.

The Falcons this year play 9 teams in the top-half in run defense, and 6 out of the remaining 7 are against division foes who were all top 20 rush defenses (last year.) Turner’s biggest weeks last season came against awful defenses, or at home against below average defenses.

Good Games:
Week 1 - 220 yds, 2 TD vs DET (32nd in rush ypg allowed)
Week 3 - 104 yds, 3 TD vs KC (30th)
Week 5 - 121 yds, 1 TD @GB (26th)
Week 9 - 139 yds, 0 TD @OAK (31st)
Week 10 - 96 yds, 1 TD vs NO (17th)
Week 11 - 81 yds, 2 TD vs DEN (27th)
Week 12 - 117 yds, 4 TD vs CAR (20th)
Week 13 - 120 yds, 0 TD @SD (11th)
Week 15 - 152 yds, 1 TD vs TB (19th)
Week 17 - 208 yds, 1 TD vs STL (29th)

Bad games:
Week 2 - 42 yds, 0 TD @TB (19th)
Week 4 - 56 yds, 0 TD @CAR (20th)
Week 6 - 54 yds, 0 TD vs CHI (5th)
Week 8 - 58 yds, 0 TD @PHI (4th)

Ok weeks:
Week 14 - 61 yds, 1 TD @NO (17th)
Week 16 - 70 yds, 1 TD @MIN (1st)
The truth is, I could make a post like this for every player in the draft, so I would just go with your gut. It’s so much more fun, even if AP and MJD are awesome this year.

3

I don’t know much about how much of the game a QB takes responsibility for, but how often would Favre be hijacking a running play to substitute a passing play?

Also, when Ahman Green was around in Green Bay, Favre used him as an outlet all the time.

4

Since there are about 30 people in my fantasy leagues who will read this post, I’ll tell you what I think on September 10th.

No, seriously, I personally think it’s a bad move given the available data, but fuck it: it’s your team, build it how you like. The worst thing would be to draft a guy you didn’t really want because everyone else said you had to, only to be proven right all along.

5

Exactly. It isn’t like you will get a 2nd chance. There isn’t a rb out there that doesn’t have a weakness, so if you trust Turner, MJD, Chris Johnson or any other top running back most, go for it.