I haven’t as yet been following the circus quite as closely as perhaps I have in previous years, so was wondering if you could fill me in with a quick synopsis of a few goings-on; thanks.
Any sniff of a Democratic challenge to the sitting Prez, even if only to blow a bit of dust off a specific single hot-button issue, or try to drag the platform to the left, etc… ?
Any possibility of the Dems considering a change of VP to shore up a potentially weak state in the General, or even to bring others into play, or does this really only get considered once the GOP have their nominee sewn-up and they really know where they are strong/weak in comparison?
A long way off, for sure but - Is Biden in any way considered the right stuff for becoming the presumptive nominee in 2016 (assuming a Dem victory next year) or is he just an attack dog VP with no real allusions of the main job (barring catastrophe)?
What is the cut-off date for the GOP nomination - will it potentially drag on right through to the convention, or will it all be well wrapped up long before then? There seems a huge gap between, say, Super Tuesday and the GOP convention to me (6 months or so) – is that normal?
Thanks for sharing a bit of background on these titbits. Cheers!
No. At least, not a credible one. And it’s pretty much too late to get on primary ballets in most states.
No. Changing VPs outside of health reasons is generally considered bad politics. There is no reason Biden would be replaced.
He has lately been asked, and has answered that he hasn’t ruled out running in 2016. I happen to think that him running is likely, but that the comments are also a useful way to shore up his image as a viable replacement president in case of emergency (in ways that Palin, for example, was never able to do). If you can imagine the VP as president then you are more likely to be comfortable voting for the ticket.
I don’ t see Biden as the likely nominee in 2016 though (even with the VP advantage).
It will almost certainly be decided before the convention. There are still a large number of “winner take all” states in the GOP primary calendar, and winning those will basically sew up the nomination. This is one reason why Romney is still a factor even if Gingrich does well in Iowa/NH/SC, as some of the large states are much more moderate than the early ones, and Romney has plenty of money for the long haul.
The latter; but, I very much doubt Biden will be Obama’s second-term running mate.
The latter, I should think.
In both parties, the presidential nomination process is supposed to drag on right through to the convention (called for the purpose), but is almost always a foregone conclusion by that point.
It’ll be Biden, barring any genuine health issues or major scandals. And he is the presumptive heir in 2016 as well - that’s the way it works in US politics.
As Jas09 mentions, replacing him at this point would be perceived as a mark of disloyalty and/or an attempt to cover up a major scandal.
I doubt it. He’ll be 74 by then, older then McCain was when he ran. I think he’ll go the Cheney route, and take the Vice Presidency as the last act of his career.
The GOP changed the rules so that there are fewer “winner take all” states this year. This could make it so that the winner isn’t obvious till later in the process then usual, though I doubt it will actually be in doubt by the time of the convention.
States prior to Super Tuesday have also shifted their dates to be even earlier, so there’s a longer then usual gap between the first primaries and Super Tuesday. I don’t think there’s a longer then normal gap between Super Tuesday and the Convention, though.
Obama could choose a different running mate, but it would be political suicide to do so. That would basically be the equivalent of saying “Yeah, I screwed up, but this time I’ll get it right”.
In 2016, assuming Obama wins 2012, Biden will probably get the nomination if he seeks it, but he probably won’t seek it. He’s the sort to recognize that he’ll be able to do more good by endorsing some young, up-and-coming candidate than by staying in office himself.
I don’t think that’s true. Biden will be 70 by the time his next term starts, I don’t think having him plead health and old age would be so implausible that people would leap to the conclusion that Obama is forcing him out because he views him as a screw-up. Especially since Biden has kept a pretty low profile. It isn’t like Cheney in the Bush administration, where the VP was almost as prominent as the Prez, and having him walk would be seen a repudiation.
Which isn’t to say that I don’t think Biden will stay on the ticket. But if Obama wanted to ditch him, I don’t think it would be anywhere close to “political suicide”.
Hm. Too old to be VP? I’ve never heard that one before, I guess. Certainly he can’t be older than Cheney was (and I remember all of the speculation about Bush replacing him in 2004 as well).
I would also think that the administration would have laid the groundwork for a change before now if that was there intention, but I could be wrong.
But Obama would never dump him: Biden would have to resign. And Obama would graciously accept his resignation and say nice things about him and see him off. And then he’d have to find somebody who could be groomed for 2016.
Does Biden have any actual specific health concerns that we know about? I thought I heard something a while back, but I can’t remember.
Cheney turned 60 just about the time that he became VP (born 1/31/41), and thus would have been 63 when running for his second term as VP. OTOH, Cheney has had something like 74 heart attacks, and has a pacemaker, so I imagine that, rather than his age, would have been the bigger concern.
Maybe, if he has a bad heart attack or stroke or the like (you know, the sort that would require a month-long hospital stay for triple bypass surgery). Just being old isn’t by itself enough of a health issue to change him out for. It would have been a good reason for Obama to not choose him in the first place, but that ship has sailed.
Think about it: Obama in 2008 was certainly at least hoping and planning to be in for two terms. He knows how to do arithmetic; he knew how old Biden would be in 2012 and in 2016. If he considered “too old” to be a valid reason to replace Biden, he never would have chosen him to begin with. The fact that he did means that he didn’t think that age would be a major obstacle. And if he does think it’s a major obstacle now, why? What changed? Any possible answer to that looks bad for him.
Yeah, yeah, it’d be Biden resigning, not Obama calling for him to be replaced. But everyone knows that they’d both be coming to an agreement on something like this before any announcement. And besides, Biden can do the math, too, and he still accepted the job.