South Carolina Republican race

The polls show Trump pretty easily winning, but who will take 2nd? The polls say Cruz, but his position is very tenuous. Bush and Kasich are showing a lot of volatility, ranging from 4% to 15%. Rubio’s pretty consistent in 3rd, but could surprise at 2nd or disappoint at 4th.

So let’s have the predictions! Here’s mine:

Trump- 33%
Rubio- 18%
Cruz- 17%
Kasich- 12%
Bush- 11%

By all rights, a 5th in SC should cause Bush to exit, especially since he looks to be finishing dead last in Nevada, but he probably won’t due to having so much money. Although I’d think the party might put some pressure on him to exit at that point. Bush’s support could be going to Rubio or Kasich.

Rubio just got the Haley endorsement, I can see that swaying a few of the ‘anybody but Trump’ republican voters undecided between the other candidates

I think Bush exits if he finishes 4th or lower. If he can pull ahead of Rubio (not to mention Kasich) he’ll stay in of course, but if he can’t beat Rubio in Bush Country then I think he’s done.

Seems that a lot is on the line for Cruz too. He’s supposed to do well in the South, but if he can’t do substantially better than any of the establishment candidates(or Trump for that matter), then he doesn’t have a path to the nomination once the field winnows.

I think Cruz will finish ahead of Rubio (but still a ways behind Trump) due to a stronger ground game.

I still don’t see either Bush or Kasich dropping out until March 16, unless it’s clear several days out that they’re going to get totally trounced in their respective home states.

Carson, OTOH, will call it quits by Monday at the latest.

He might just get winnowed right out of the race in the next few weeks.

Thanks to Trump’s continued failure to self-destruct ;), Super Tuesday is no longer Cruz’ firewall. If Trump eclipses Cruz outside of Texas on Super Tuesday (and absent the long-awaited self-destruction, it’s hard to see its working out any other way) then if Cruz doesn’t win Florida on March 15, he might as well hang it up. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he does at that point.

That’s exactly what the establishment is hoping for. That it’s one establishment guy vs. Trump in the home stretch. That’s where Rubio or Kasich pull it off. Jeb’s polling at a brutal 1% in Nevada.

Down goes Trump!

Perhaps Trump is at his ceiling and as the field narrows, the others are scavenging off the carcasses of the fallen candidates while Trump is not.

If Bush is at 4%, it’s more “Down goes Bush”. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse performance by a candidate with so much damn campaign money.

I wish some guy named Frazier would run so I could say “Down goes Frazier!”




Cruz said that since Rubio got the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley, if Rubio doesn’t win SC, he should drop out.

Never mind that, what would it take to get Carson to exit?

I thought they were hoping for one Establishment guy v. Trump and Cruz dividing the non-Establishment vote.

An empty campaign bank account, and little prospect of replenishing it as fast as he’d like to spend it.

I figure the first condition’s near to being met, and the second will fall into place once he finishes down in the bottom tier in SC. I expect that he calls it quits sometime between Saturday night and Monday afternoon.

I haven’t been especially accurate with these but what the hey, I’m in:

Bush 9%

I have no idea what will happen (but hey, nobody else has either in this wacky primary season). So here’s my WAG:

Der Trump-34%
Preacher Cruz-29%
Roboto Rubio-14%
Earnest Kasich-9%
JEB! Bush 8%
Dr. Franken…er, Carson-6%
Carson will drop out 2 March, after Super Tuesday; Bush and Kasich will hag on through Florida and Ohio. Rubio will award himself another win for getting one out of every seven votes. And Trump and Cruz will move closer to a contested Convention.

We shall see.

T-Rump 32%
Cruz Control Freak 26%
The Rubiobot 22%…22%…22%…22%
Smiley Kasich 9%
Jeb! Bush! 6%!
The 2nd Half Of Flowers For Algernon 5%

Running out of clean pants?

Trump 29%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 18%
Bush 11%
Kasich 9%
Carson 8%
Assorted dropouts 2%