So having demanded the preconditions of endorsement from the Freedom Caucus, their dropping of the “vacate the chair” rule, and dropping their insistence on diminishing the power of the position, and having received none of his demands … accepting instead “support” and a promise to “discuss” what he wants procedurally later and a promise that he won’t have to spend too much extra time fundraising … it looks like Ryan will be elected Speaker.
Yes?
If so, if he is willing to step into the stinking pile that is that position at this point in time with backing down from his stated lines in the sand as his first tone-setting action even before getting voted upon, how long will he last?
I give him less than a year. Other more informed guesses?
I don’t know for how long though. I think there are just too many variables, especially the election next year, that could affect it.
I don’t know a lot about him. I’ve heard he can be reasonable, but I’ve also heard the opposite, so I have no idea how he will do in the position. From the speech he gave, I am hopeful, but that could just be wishful thinking.
As I alluded to in the other thread, he just threw away any leverage he might have had. He played the game of “I don’t really want this, so I can walk away any time.” When they said no, and he decided to run anyway, this little ruse was exposed.
So, yeah, I think we’ll see Speaker Ryan. And he won’t have any more authority than Boehner did, and will see the same results. How long he lasts in the role is dependent on how much he’s willing to put up with a powerless Speakership.
I think his future will be known fairly quickly. It will come down to how he handles the debt ceiling limit deadline. He only has one and a half weeks to figure out a way to get the Tea Partiers in line. I assume that he won’t actually let the country default.
Well, so they say. What are they gonna do, have the House bailiff detain him at the airport?
I think his family thingy is a ruse so that he has a viable excuse not to campaign and fund raise for those House members who aren’t cooperative enough. But all of this boils down to one as yet unanswered question: Just how crazy is the Batshit Cadre?
Well, clearly he will be Speaker but I doubt it will be very long before the Freedom Caucus lunatics starting kicking the shit out of him as hard as they can since he strikes me as someone willing to work with the devil Obama. How long he puts up their antics remains to be seen.
Ryan is a former VP candidate and now on the cusp of Speaker of the House. He’s establishment.
As for being respected, that may be true now, but his choices going forward are to either try to get things done (budgets passed, debt limits increased) and lose that respect, or completely destroy the party. He’ll likely do the former. It’ll be interesting to see how long that “respect” lasts.
He is not going to go along with the dumbass caucus, how does this end any different than Boehner? there is no talking your way out of “no, you can’t fucking sink the country because you didn’t get your stupid demands met”.
It sounds like Ryan isn’t going to have a much easier time than Boehner. And if he follows through with some of his demands, like not helping out with fundraising for candidates because he’s spending time with family that will definitely not help.
Yeah, I just saw that early this morning. With the pressure being put on some of the members of the Freedom Caucus by the far right talking heads and bloggers this thing could collapse much quicker than I thought. I doubt he makes it to Election Day. One compromise and the rabid right will really go ballistic.
How come we don’t actually know who’s in this “Freedumb Caucus”? I keep hearing its “about forty” and some guys are definitely part of it, but whazza deal, here?
“Fire Paul Ryan” is the new rallying cry from Conservative PACs, and it seems to have traction on blogs:
Politics Is Our Profession, and Business Is Good. If they bomb out their own party, I won’t be a bit surprised. It’s certainly painted a big enough target on its back by creating them and nurturing them for so long.
Let’s see how well Paul “Romney-” Ryan stands up to the Cashservative assault. The article is absolutely wonderful. I suggest you read it in full.
Oh, I can’t resist. Open the spoiler box for the punchline:[spoiler]
The budget/debt ceiling fights are the early test on whether he can be effective. If he can’t sooner seems more likely than later. Early internal punches are already being thrown during this cycle. If the primaries swing back towards the more extreme elements of the Party he’s a lame duck speaker just waiting to see who gets the job next. If the last midterm pattern of the more establishment candidates winning the primaries, he’s probably set for as long as he can put up with the headaches without quitting or going postal.
I think Boehner and Obama extended Ryan’s life expectancy as Speaker substantially by reaching a budget agreementthat deals with the issues of the debt limit and temporary spending expiration.
If Ryan can avoid having to deal with those issues, which the hard-liners had hoped to use to achieve their aims under the threat of crippling the government (and perhaps the country), he will probably be able to keep Congress together, and thus the Speakership for at least six months, and perhaps through the election.
Yeah, Boehner really took a bullet for Ryan on his way out the door. He really didn’t need his first action as Speaker to be a huge fight with the “Freedom Caucus.” Ryan is pretending to be mad about Boehner’s deal, but there’s a case of scotch and a new set of golf clubs waiting in his office.