Oh, and we can also conclude that, whatever the number of Villains or their order, today is definitely LyLo, since two players tomorrow would definitely be over one way or the other.
I had forgotten that Mahaloth (Enobarbus) and Prof.Pepperwinkle (Bianca) had both name claimed previously. Obviously, I need to keep summary notes on the players the next time I try one of these games.
There’s also this from DemonTree:
I don’t think that storyteller0910 has yet said anything about his name.
Oh, and in the unlikely event that, somehow, everyone ended up dead, that would satisfy the Town win condition (no Villains alive), but would not satisfy the Villain win condition (if everyone’s dead, there’s no vote to control).
You should see the notes I keep in these games, sometimes. If anyone but me ever runs one again, at a time when I have time to actually play.
Didn’t you have a spreadsheet with weighted criteria and algorithms at one time?
I’m glad you asked. I almost did, and then thought “Nah, he probably means people in the game thread should ask” and got distracted before I could swing back to “he’s a reasonable person, if he’s not sure telling the spectators is a good idea, he’ll just say so”.
I’ve never used a spreadsheet, per se, but I do have a very complicated and user-unfriendly C program for vote analysis (which I believe is the most thorough and accurate analysis possible, given the inputs of who voted and unvoted for whom on what Days), and a completely different complicated and not-quite-as-user-unfriendly C program for simulating games, for use in determining game balance. Also, when I take notes during a game, I take them in hypertext format, so that if I copy and paste them into a thread, they’re all links to the relevant posts.
One vote for early ending, and three “no preference”. Obviously the correct thing to do will be to end late.
storyteller’s “oh no! I’m innocent at endgame but everyone is suspicious of me” schtick only makes me more suspicious of him. I wish Mahaloth and DemonTree were participating more and generating more discussion. They are letting storyteller manage the narrative right now, which is bad news if I am right about him.
DemonTree said something about a vacation in New England, and I believe they’re from the British Isles - perhaps today is a travel day?
@Chronos , is the source for your programs available somewhere? I’d love to take a look at them.
That sounds right.
Yeah, something seems a bit off to me about that. It’s been a bunch of years since he and I last played a game together (and when in the same game we’ve both been on the town side), but it seems off to me.
In order of most likely scum going purely off of impressions I’ve gotten from following the game but not actually examining voting patterns or reviewing posts (because I’ve got nothing on the line and have more important things to spend my time on), I think Storyteller is the most likely scum, barely edging out Prof, with Mahaloth being considerably behind them with a slightly town lean, and Demon tree even more town lean.
Thinking about DemonTree’s plan to force a tie, I see some positives and negatives. On the positive side, it’s a ploy that’s likely to generate some argument and discussion. On the negative side, these kinds of strategies are really hard for Town to manage - all it takes is one person to disagree and it falls apart - and really easy for Scum to manipulate at endgame.
My initial reaction is that it’s not a good idea to try it, but I kind of like that DemonTree suggested it and hope it gets people talking.
Personally, I’m a little suspicious of Prof. I don’t love votes that are “for the same reason as yesterday” (it’s fine to use the same reason, just spell it out a little), and I don’t love votes that are apparently based on a misgendering error. I can’t remember ever seeing someone vote for someone based on a misgendering thing. (This is probably literally true– as in, someone somewhere has probably done it, and I don’t remember it after all this time, or maybe never read it to begin with. )
I agree - that vote is bad. I said as much earlier:
OK, having been reading along with nothing interesting to add, I have now decided that Prof. Pepperwinkle is scum because
“It’s a bit nailbiting, yes”
is the sort of thing Scum say when they’re trying to pretend they don’t know the result of a vote already.
ETA - a coward would delete that, I hold my failure up to the light.
You ain’t got nothin’ on all the wrong shite I’ve been speculating in this thread 
Hoo boy was I spectacularly wrong. (In my defense, so was everyone else).
Now I can, so those were my instruccions:
If I have to target two players or none, my power could not be any of the powers listed by Thing.Fish, because those powers only workd for one player: vig, name cop, doctor…
And it was the word “target” which led my overthinking astray: I read “target” as an act that does harm, so it did not cross my mind that I could target myself and someone I thought a Villain. Claiming to be a major character and redirecting Scum’s killing towards someone I suspected to be Scum would have been a brilliant move.
On the other hand, had I chosen myself and Biotop * (instead of myself Thing.Fish, the best move, or Mahaloth, the other suspect I had in mind), who got targeted by Dizzymrslizzy, we would both be dead and nobody could have known that it was not those who thought they had killed each one of us who had indeed killed us, but a ricochet: Scum would have killed Biotop, not me, and Dizzymrslizzy would have killed me, not Biotop. But nobody would have been able to tell the difference. Only you, AngeloftheNorth, would have known that Mahaloth was Scum, but then you would not have known that Thing.Fish was Scum. Would that have been better? No idea.
And as my power would have had no effect I would not have known what it was and the rest of the players would wrongly assume that I had not used it. But that would have had no consequences that I can see.
The optimum move would have been targeting myself and Thing.Fish. Assuming you would have targeted Mahaloth (as you did) and Dizzimrslizzy had targeted Biotop (as she did), we would have won on Night 2. Sorry, it was not to be. I did not have enough beginner’s luck! I came close, but as they say in German: Knapp daneben ist auch vorbei. (DeepL translates this as “close, but no cigar”. Which I in turn would rate as a “close, but no cigar” translation).
* To be frank, I was not suspecting Biotop at all, so it is unlikely that I would have picked him. But the consequences, had I done so, would have been what I have written. I believe. Probably. Yeah. Hum.
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