State your election odds and result predictions.

We did this in 2000, though I can’t find the thread. I lived overseas in 2004, so I have no idea if this was done then. I would have lost in 2004, as I thought Kerry was a clear victor. Then again, it might have been clearer living in the United States.

I remember in 2000, I figured Gore had about a 60% chance of victory, with Bush having about a 40% chance of victory. Not a bad guess, considering the results. I don’t remember how we predicted

Realistically, what do you think the odds are for this election? We’ll see Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but let’s guess now.

I’ll say:

**Barack Obama: **

  • 85% chance of victory. In fact, about a 60% chance of a landslide victory.

  • I’ll guess 52.5% of the popular vote goes to Obama

  • He’ll get about 320 electoral votes.

**John McCain: **

-15% chance of victory, which is pretty good considering how bad things look.

  • He’ll get around 47-48% of the popular vote.

  • He’ll get around 220 electoral votes.

By the way, this is just a survey/poll and isn’t meant for an argument. If the mods feel it’s in the wrong forum, please move it for me. I almost put it in MPSIMS, but didn’t.


Wow… no one?

One bump, and no more.

We’ve already got quite the “Fantasy Electoral College” game going on here.