We did this in 2000, though I can’t find the thread. I lived overseas in 2004, so I have no idea if this was done then. I would have lost in 2004, as I thought Kerry was a clear victor. Then again, it might have been clearer living in the United States.
I remember in 2000, I figured Gore had about a 60% chance of victory, with Bush having about a 40% chance of victory. Not a bad guess, considering the results. I don’t remember how we predicted
Realistically, what do you think the odds are for this election? We’ll see Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but let’s guess now.
I’ll say:
**Barack Obama: **
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85% chance of victory. In fact, about a 60% chance of a landslide victory.
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I’ll guess 52.5% of the popular vote goes to Obama
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He’ll get about 320 electoral votes.
**John McCain: **
-15% chance of victory, which is pretty good considering how bad things look.
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He’ll get around 47-48% of the popular vote.
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He’ll get around 220 electoral votes.
