Straight Dope 4/21/2023: Is Canada poised for world domination due to climate change?

Still, it won’t look great in the tourist brochures. I’d suggest a rebranding to one of its names from the Dene First Nation: Tinde’e.

so the makers of the Shadowrun tabletop gaming system got it right there will be the UCAS (united Canadian American States) what they got wrong was Quebec would be running it and not breaking off into its own country as predicted …

The question was VOLUME, though, by which Winnipeg isn’t anywhere near as big as Lake Ontario, and is only half as big even as Erie, which is incredibly shallow compared to the other Great Lakes. Great Bear and Great Slave are very deep, and have more water than Ontario. No lake in the New World is even close to Superior.

I wonder … how much of this loss in projected GDP is due to a predicted reduction in demand for petroleum?

Sure, turning into an overheated scorching desert isn’t gonna do anybody any good, but one of the other economic drivers when climate change starts to hit hard is going to be a MUCH stronger push away from carbon-intensive fuels like petroleum, natural gas, and (especially) coal. If you’re Saudi Arabia, whose GDP depends heavily on oil exports, you’re gonna get hit pretty hard even if your own climate doesn’t change at all!

The Canadian Constitutional ethos is for “peace, order and good government”. This is often contrasted (by Canadian pundits, since no one else much cares) to the American “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” or the French “liberté, égalité, fraternité”. The Constitution is Canada’s highest law. Governments and institutions sometimes obey it. Above else, one is supposed to be reasonable and acting in good faith.

This says a great deal about Canadians. We don’t tend to like braggarts. If we are the ninth largest economy, which surprises, future increases are welcome. By the same token, “good government” may exist in theory or in contrast to bombastic Presidents. Yet it still seems in very short supply here. Hopefully this is just a glitch in the matrix and we will end up prioritizing what will be important. Culture, immigration, energy, health, business, innovation, food, freshwater, defence, law, quality of life…

Well, we’ll see. Can Canada control the Northwest Passage once it becomes permanently navigable? That will be the test of the Dominion’s Dominance :smiley:

I wonder about this. What does “control” mean in this context? While all the lands around the Northwest Passage belong to Canada, what are they going to do, send out a boat to each passing ship to collect fees? Make large container ships stop for inspection? Ask the Navy to blow-up any ship that does not pay fees or stop? How do other one-country shipping passages (Sunda Straight, the Bosphorus) “control” it, and how do they benefit from it?

Having a natural passage thru your country seems a bit different than having an artificial passage, like the Panama Canal or Suez Canal, where the only way to get through is to have the authorities “control” you thru.

it’s an issue of sovereignty. The U.S. and most countries claim the Northwest Passage is an international strait that can be crossed freely by anyone, whereas Canada says that it has sole jurisdiction over the waterway and therefore has the right to deny access. Does the U.S. allow any vessel from any country to freely transit the Mississippi River? Same thing (according to Canada).

What happens with Chile/Argentina in the Beagle Channel and Straight of Magellan?

They have a treaty (1881 Boundary Treaty) which states that the channel and straight are perpetually neutral territory with freedom of navigation granted to all countries.

“Strait.”

Practically speaking Canada cannot project naval power into the Arctic as it currently stands. In a future with a thawed north, Canadian would need a substantially larger and different defense apparatus.

Like a partnership with its southern neighbor perhaps. The one that it shares a coastline with in the artic.

At one point I heard Canada was considering negotiating the purchase of nuclear submarines from the UK so it could patrol the Passage. I presume nothing came of it.

Canada will give you a stern talking to. Then write you a very strongly worded letter. Stating that Canadians stand with diplomatic solutions and eschewing aggression.

swipes right

Comedian Brian Regan has a bit where he dreams of owning a Miami basketball team, just so he can call a press conference to announce their name “is not the Heat. It’s the Humidity”.

Similarly, CNN is projecting increased heat waves in the South and in Central America.

It’s not just heat, it’s also the potential for widespread crop failures and water shortages. Climate refugees are going to be a real problem for both the US and Canada. They’ll be potential influxes from all over, but the biggest border threat will probably be from Central and South America because of the almost contiguous land area, broken only by the 66 miles of the notorious Darien Gap between Panama and Colombia, which is already being traversed by desperate migrants. Anyone who thinks there are problems now with migrants at the Mexican border ought to consider what might happen when people in tropical areas of the Americas who are already stressed for food and water are faced with starvation. There are no easy solutions but we should at least be thinking in terms of strategic planning for mitigation and technical assistance before we have to deal with a humanitarian catastrophe.

I lived in Brasil for a year. I’m not an expert in food production, but in most tropical parts of the Americas, political unrest and wealth inequality cite are more of a problem than food production. Both the US and Canada look good for political and economic refugees; if it were me, I’d choose Canada. You all are nicer than we are.

This article is germane to the discussion about crop yields in tropical America - Climate Change Threatens the Basis of Food Security in Latin America.

If the food starts running short, the political unrest those places are experiencing now will seem like the quaint good ol’ days.

If the world suddenly has to displace a billion or two people and lacks food for them all, the BAD result isn’t “people have to move to Canada.” It’s, to quote an 80s movie, global thermonuclear war. You can’t have that level of disruption in a short time and maintain the global balance of power.