Survivor 11/14

Cafe Society
1

It’s your weekly Survivor discussion thread. Will there be a merge? Who gets the boot? Any signs of alliance breaking? You make the call!

Previews seem to indicate the merge is finally going to happen, and I’m sticking with my prediction of last week that Ken is not long for this game. He still has the appearance of a challenge threat, even if his actual performance has sucked, so I think he’s got the biggest target on his chest. It also splits up the tight pair of Jake and Ken, so he’s outta here. If Jake wins immunity, Penny’s out of here. I think Chewing Gum likes Jake a little too much to kill him yet.

Next week should actually be the interesting one. There will be two Soup Guys left, which makes an attractive alliance opportunity for the outsiders on Chewing Gum. We’ll have to see how well Brian holds together his kingdom.

And for anyone who missed it, DavidB got his interview with Shii Ann. As Shii Ann would definitely put it, “LOL!”

2

Pardon me, If Ken wins immunity, Penny’s out of here.

3

Damn, minty - thought I’d save you some effort - but didn’t scroll down far enough.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Helen, granny, and the 3 get together and vote out Brian.

4

The Brian-Ted coalition is going to recruit Jake, and continue to include Clay (not a threat) along for the ride–and the vote.

The less-cohesive Jan-Helen coalition probably thinks that they’ve got a strong tribal aliance with Brian-Ted, which they probably do… for now.

That leaves Ken and Penny in the lurch. If one gets immunity, the other’s gone. If neither gets immunity…

I’d guess that if neither gets immunity Ken, the bigger threat, is probably gone. However, I could also see Ken/Penny split with Brian-Ted-Jake-Clay-Ken voting off Penny and Jan-Helen-Penny voting off Ken. So, assuming neither gets immunity, that’s my call!

5

Not yet, Dinsdale, too soon. If they team up now, that would make Helen and Jan the minority in their new, 5-person alliance. They’d be in precisely the same position they’re already in, except they wouldn’t even have a Clay to possibly get kicked before it’s their turn.

The math is simple. If Helen and Jan switch (and Jan has shown no signs of anything other than unwavering loyalty), JKP + HJ > BTC. If they stick, BTC + HJ > JKP. Either way, HJ are the odd ones out, though either one could become BT’s crucial third vote. For now, they’re much better off sticking with Chewing Gum.

Abandoning Chewing Gum next week makes much more sense. Then it’s HJ + 2SJ > BTC. Bingo, you’re in the final four, where anything can happen. But it takes two Chewing Gum defectors to pull that off, which makes it tricky. Who’s likely to jump?

Clay seems closest to Brian and Ted, but he’s still definitely on the outside of their alliance. He’s also none too fond of the two CG women. I have a hard time seeing Clay make a move, but I think he’ll be the first one jettisoned if BT make it to teh final four.

Jan has been nothing but loyal. If she’s going to make it to the finals, she has to be carried there by somebody else. If she jumps to SJ, nobody there is going to carry her past F3. Her best bet is to stick with CG, where nobody sees her as a threat, she can give her vote to anyone who will carry her along, then hope that the BT alliance gets broken up by immunity or otherwise.

Helen is the wild card here. She’s more of an immunity threat than Clay or Jan, so she may be a target to the BT pair. But she can’t make the jump to SJ on her own–she needs either Clay or Jan to go along. Helen too may be better off either locking up a position as BT’s third vote or rallying Clay and Jan to depose the king.

One other possibility to keep in mind here is that BT may themselves feel the need to abandon CG and join next week’s two remaining SJ. They need to lock up a third (and preferably, fourth) vote in their own tribe or suddenly they are the minority voting bloc. If the CHJ peasants start getting uppity, the king may have to get himself some new peasants.

My prediction? CG stays strong, SJ gets Pagonged. BT get their third vote (maybe Jan?), and CG cruise into the final four, where anything can happen.

6

I think if Chewy Ghan goes to TC Jan will be voted out, if it Sook Jai, ken will go.

7

The BEST move for the 5 (still haven’t gotten the names down yet) is also the move that makes for the most boring TV - vote out members of the 3 - probably the guys, this week and next. Then Bri/Ted can move on the wimmen.

JKP strikes me as more unified than any portion of the 5. Making them the biggest threat.

I’d say Bri/Ted/Clay would be the best bet now - assure they make the final 3. If they can keep granny/Helen on board this week in particular.

Just curious - what makes you view Helen as an immunity threat? What has she shown in challenges - mental or physical - up to now?

Arrgh, the permutations are great. And I have an appeal to write today and tomorrow!

8

Helen has held her own in the contests we’ve seen so far. She’s not the strongest competitor out there, but she’s more of an immunity threat than Jan (whose legs look like concentration camp material at this point) and about equal with Clay. Helen is also clearly superior to Clay in mental ability, IMO, plus she seems focused. If we get down to a simple endurance challenge, Helen will be one of the favorites.

9

I wondered if Burnett would have the courage not to have a merge-- looks doubtful. Its a shame, as the game would have been so much more interesting that way.

Prediction: Merge, Ken or Penny is gone. Jan says something stupid. Ted remains fat, somehow.

Helen is smart enough to know she needs to make a move. Jan is too stupid, she will be lead to the slaughter with that same stupid look on her face that she always has.

The game would be more interesting if the first two players got immunity rather then just one, now wouldn’t it.

:slight_smile:

10

Merge this week.

For my weekly crappy prediction that won’t come true, I think there is a secret male alliance with the 5 remaining guys. They will vote out Penny this week, thus ensuring that we will get to watch the continued melting of Jan.

11

Wow, what an airhead. She comes across far different in the interview than she did on the show. Geez.

12

I know. I was pretty disappointed with that interview too. What’s with the “LOL!” every other sentence? I’m cherishing the hope that she didn’t actually write that. She answered the questions verbally, and some CBS clerk typed it up, inserting the LOL’s when she laughed. (C’mon, it could happen…:()

13

Spoilers!!
Not much to say, except that I was suprised by how well Helen sang. I expected her to sound like a crow :slight_smile:

The merge was not totally unexpected, and Brian’s wife is a hotty! I thought his “riches” were totally overplayed though… so what if he has two cars? He’s a freaking used car salesman! I’m sure he picked them up cheap.

What was up with Ken and the IC? Poor guy looked totally stunned…

14

I was going to wait until the show was over on the west coast, but I’m unusually tired this evening, so I’ll post now. :smiley:

Well, I think this season may finally break my Survivor habit. The last 2 episodes have been so boring I actually contemplated switching over to friends (then I decided I wasn’t that desperate yet).

((( ==-- minor spoilers follow --==)))

Jan wishes her cleavage would quit flying out of her shirt. I wish supermodels would stop calling me, and Daimer-Chrysler would stop asking me to test-drive prototype Vipers.

Did Brian meet his wife on the “job”? No, not the used-car job, the other one.

Clay may be irritating, but he’s worth keeping around just for his reactions to the tomfoolery around him. His reaction to Brian’s video was great.

Did Erin get another boob job to prepare for jury duty? She looks absolutely ridiculous.

The reward challenge was finally something action-oriented. The good news: Finally some action! The bad: No one bit the dust. Still, it beats watching 'em sort fish.

And since Anon spoilt it already, I’ll agree that Ken did look oddly surprised. Hey Ken, your team was outnumbered and you are the biggest threat. It’s a no-brainer.

On the same note, the previews next week show Ted to be surprised (and getting pissy) about getting the votes from the Soups. Same thing, Mr. Grindy. You’re a big fella. You’re a threat. The other survivors want to go against you in a physical challenge about as much as they want to sleep next to you. If they’re smart, you’ll be gone next week.

15

I can’t believe how badly NYC did on that “count mounds” challenge. 2 east, 3 south. How hard is that???

16

That was pathetic! They didn’t even need to memorize the characters since they were on the tally board. My only thought is that Ken wears contacts and he didn’t have them in so he couldn’t see the board clearly.

Next two weeks should be pretty predictable. I don’t see the alliance turning on itself, so unless Penny or Jake wins out on the immunity challenges they’re gone, then Jan’s obviously the odd person out of the alliance and unlikely to win immunity (she’s too weak for the physical challenges, too flighty for the mental ones).

Brian, Ted, Helen, and Clay should make for a very entertaining final four. Unfortunately it might not be all that interesting getting there…

17

Editing last night seemed to suggest Ted was turning into a target for Clay–who in turn was saying the women were fed up with him too–but I’m not sure how true that is. I have the impression that Clay was just playing with Jake, trying to divert attention from any real alliances he might have been able to create. I think Chewing Gum is still solid.

Next week: Jake.

18

Next Week: Ted.

IF Jake plays it right, he should be able to convince Helen-Jan that they need to scoot over to He and Penny’s team. After all, once SJ has been “pagonged”, who’s the next targets? Likely Helen and Jan… and even if they’re not, Jake should convince them that they will be, bring them into the fold and the four can try to pick off Brian-Ted-Clay, rather than vice-versa.

19

Voting said, to me, that Clay was leading Papa Jake down the garden path with his “vote Ted out” alliance. The only ones who actually voted for Ted were ex-Sook Jai.

I’m quietly laughing into my hand that the Young & the Clueless, the “athletic”, “vital” tribe with that “fire in their eyes”, is now down to two, count 'em, two people.

Just proves that age and treachery will beat youth and beauty every time. :slight_smile:

20

If I’m doing my math correctly, next week is the last chance for any drama, right? Either Helen and Jan hook up with Jake and Penny, or not. Which will dictate the next several weeks.

Slacker hit most of the points I would’ve made.

New York’s finest indeed!

Was strangely embarassed for Brian - and his wife. She had so little to say on the tape. Got me wondering what my wife would put on a tape for me, or vice versa. I understand his point of how showing it to everyone was not to his advantage.

Next week - Penny.

Was really surprised at how Jake appeared to be losing it. With the “cracker barrel” strories, crying at the drop of a hat, gullibility for any lies others fed him, and overall ineffectualness.