A born salesman Erik is not. And a risk-taker Denise is not. She got as close as she will ever get to a million bucks last night and didn’t “probably make a huge mistake,” but definitely made a huge mistake.
She’s knows she’s #4 with her current alliance. Things flip and flop in this game, and anything can happen, granted. But there is NO WAY she would win a million bucks up against any two of the other three. She has been a non-entity, a warmbody, throughout and, with rare exception, those types just don’t win, especially against movers and shakers like Todd or Amanda. On top of that, she herself realizes she’s not all that close to the others (although she doesn’t seem to realize how highly James thinks of her).
But going against P.G. & Erik in the final three, I’d give Denise a one in three shot at very least and probably make her the favorite. I don’t think the jury would vote P.G. the win despite her (potential) ability to survive simply because her social skills suck and everyone seems to dislike her. Jamie & Amanda would probably vote for Erik, Courtney perhaps for Erik, all the others for Denise, their only surviving original tribemate. She would have had an excellent shot to win. This would not have been a tough sell for Erik to make. She already believed she was probably making a huge mistake so wasn’t terribly far from her tipping point.
Oh, and there is no way Denise wins immunity in the final four immunity challenge because it’s traditionally one of endurance.
This reminds of when Dreamz back-stabbed Yau Man. Didn’t it occur to Yau Man to point out that even if Dreams went back on his word to advance to the finals he NEVER would have gotten any votes based on such a dastardly action? Again, all this conjecture is based on the assumption a sales pitch like wasn’t left on the cutting room floor.
Oh, and great point, Sapo: voting Courtney into a tiebraker would have made Denise a lock to survive. You smart!
I wonder how much is there for them to do. I am getting a feeling that it is more like Big Brother but without cameras and prizes. And as you point out, your mates would really make a difference. Imagine PG stuck there for a week or two, with no friends. Or anyone stuck with J-R.
ETA: Oh, and thanks for the compliment Moonchild. I will take them where I get them . This one is really troubling me. I find it hard to believe that nobody is thinking on the tie breaking scenarios. Especially this group which seems rather savvy on the whole game part of this.
I don’t think that’s true at all. No one trusts Todd and I believe his days are very numbered. If Amanda doesn’t already have a plan to get rid of him, I’m sure PG does.
And that’s another thing. Out of the final five, Denise is well respected (maybe not well liked) by everybody. And among the rest, PG and Courtney are downright hated.
It’s about winning the million bucks, not returning favors. She had to go with her alliance, and PG should’ve realized that.
If she really wanted to shake things up, she could’ve chosen both PG and Erik!
I was really surprised that Erik didn’t win the IC. I figured his athleticism would be the kicker. And did anyone notice the question that Todd lost on? Was it about gunpowder? I though everyone knew the Chinese invented gunpowder…
barbed wire
Chinese checkers
fortune cookies
I noticed they didn’t pair them the same way for each player - one had barbed wire paired with gunpowder, another had b.w. & crossbow. Don’t know if it would have mattered though.
So what was with Mr. Denise coming back from lunch and laying down for a nap? What happened to the time honored tradition of making the family member(s) who comes to camp work their butt off so the players can rest?
Thanks. For a minute I thought they were saying the Chinese had invented barbed wire and I was beginning to wonder.
I do think the pairings mattered, but I am sure it was randomized and that it matters according to the knowledge of the contestant, and not in a predictable way.
You know, I read this completely different. I saw a girl who wasn’t allowed to take the initiative. A cold, correct father. Unbending. Always perfectly dressed? Too neat to allow a child to run up and hug him at will. The child can beg for attention, but it’s up to the parent to decide when and if she can have a hug.
I dunno. The relationship between those two just felt really really off to me.
I wish Denise HAD chosen Courtney. It would have been really interesting to see how that stiff and proper gent would have dealt with life at camp.
Wow, that’s interesting. And note how Courtney behaves with people in the group – by turns aloof, then randomly affectionate (with Frosti, who was fairly passive). Then privately hyper-critical.
It certainly looks like something happened to Courtney during the IC – Probst never mentioned her name when calling the play-by-play, and I think there were only 5 boxes at the finish line.
I’ve only been watching since Pearl Islands I–has the final four ever been all women?
The game is so much more interesting now with the HII’s out of play. Now we get to see who has a real game strategy and who’s just hanging on.
Amanda right now does seem to have the edge. If she manages to get Todd voted off (I hope), and assuming there will be three finalists again (sigh), I figure either PG or Courtney will be out of the finals, depending on who wins the IC. With a final field of Amanda, Denise and whoever’s left. I truly believe that Denise will win it all. I don’t see the jury voting for PG or Courtney; that leaves them split in favor of Denise. Amanda may be the stronger player, but if the jury figures out that she’s the one behind most of the vote-offs, they’ll give it to Denise.
I was surprised that Amanda voted for Erik. It shows she’s thinking with her brain and not her libido.
I got the same impression about Courtney as StarvingButStrong. Her body language was very deferential to her father and then she kept apologizing that he had to participate in the RC. I wish they’d put a drip line in her, though, because I’m worried her heart is going to give out.
I’m pulling for Denise to win, too. I tend to get along very well with salt of the earth people. And it would be nice for a working class family to win the million bucks.
Courtney’s dad is a bit of a stick. ‘I’m English. I don’t wear shorts.’? I’m remembering the films I’ve seen with British soldiers in North Africa or in the South Pacific, with their pasty legs sticking out from khaki shorts. But he wasn’t wearing a suit. (‘See? I told you he’d be wearing a suit.’) He was dressed appropriately enough. Only pointing out that he ‘doesn’t wear shorts’ made him appear to be someone who likes to point out how he’s better than others. That could have been a little joke, but it didn’t come off that way; especially when shown with his lack of enthusiasm and Courtney’s apologies.
I think it was Courtney who pointed out that he was English wasn’t it? And I took his “I don’t do shorts” as a sort of joke aimed at himself. I guess it’s all a matter of perception.
. This one is really troubling me. I find it hard to believe that nobody is thinking on the tie breaking scenarios. Especially this group which seems rather savvy on the whole game part of this.