I’m on record as saying this season sucked, despite a promising beginning. I still believe that because some of the new rules were never used (partner switch, only used by Rupert, but…Rupert) and it killed the clues to the immunity idol angle. What we are left with since the merge is same ole, same ole, except with no compelling or dominating characters.
There is a lot to get through in two hours tonight: A redemption island duel and a returnee, an immunity challenge and Tribal Council to get down to four, then another immunity challenge and TC to get to the final three, then the usual finale routines and the last TC, which takes a long time.
My impressions and guesses as to what happens:
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Final RI Duel. Hayden or Laura. I pick Hayden, just because I think he is a better player than most give him credit for. He’s good at challenges and always seems to know what is going on in camp, he just can’t get himself on the right alliance. Seeing how he chose Kat as his romantic partner, that may not be any surprise. Anyway, it matters not, as the returnee is promptly voted out in the…
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First Immunity Challenge (unless he wins immunity). Nobody who’s last act was winning a crucial challenge is going to get a pass into the final four, especially since they will be in the minority vs. Hayden, Gervase, and Monica. Nobody is going to flip this late in the game, that chance went by in the last episode. Hayden plays his HII as it is the last chance to play it.
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That leaves Gervace, Hayden, Monica and Ciera for the inevitable final challenge that is heavily weighted to the smallest and lightest girl. Ciera wins and if the group has any brain cells left they get rid of Tyson (This is not a flip, just self-interest.)
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Final Tribal Council. A late influx from RI helps Ciera as Hayden, Monica, and Tina all should be inclined to vote her way. It also leaves four on the other side, with a possible split vote since the remaining players don’t get to vote. Ciera has nothing to fall back on but an ultimately failed flip and a win in perhaps the easiest challenge in Survivor history.
Gervace kept loyal and did do some work to hold his alliance together, but for some reason everyone hates him.
Monica, despite being a lone wolf all season, pulled herself together and stopped being so annoying once the merge happened, and even won three challenges in a row. She may be the only one who has a compelling argument as to why she deserves to win, as opposed as to why the others shouldn’t.
My hunch? I have no idea. If Hayden makes it to the final it is all his, but that is a big if. If it is between Monica, Ciera, and Gervace it is a complete crapshoot and could come down to something that hasn’t even made the air up to this point. I’d be on the lookout for foreshadowing, especially if something comes up out of nowhere.
Monica pros: Was the least likely to make the finals, won three challenges in a row that likely saved her ass. Cons: Husband made a ton of money in the NFL and probably even more as owner of a law firm who shared in a huge settlement in the NFL concussion lawsuit recently.
Gervase pros: Little to none. Cons: Nobody likes him
Ciera pros: Potentially half of the jury. Ciera cons: Everything else.
My guess: During FTC, Monica acknowledges that she and Brad don’t need the money and promises to donate the winnings to Iraq and Afganistan veterans who also were first responders on 9/11 and who also operate kitten rescue operations. She wins.