Survivor: The End Game

In My Humble Opinion
1

The Atlanta paper reports that there are only two remaining episodes of Survivor. The first is next week, and will follow the normal protocol (i.e., someone gets voted off).

The following week, a single episode is supposed to winnow the winner out of the final four contestants(!!??)

Does anyone know how this is supposed to work? At what stage are the previously ejected folks brought back to vote? Does anyone have the skinny on this? How was it handled in the European version?

Any predictions for the end game?

2

I dunno. The Survivor Web site pretty clearly shows only two more episodes. If you can gather any information on the format from their voting map, though, you’re a better man than I.

3

The survivorsucks.com website says there will be three tribal councils in the final episode. No word on whether there will be any immunity challenges.

So who do y’all think will win? (To keep this discussion forum-appropriate…)

My pick: That smug, weasely Rich. Here’s how:

Next week, Kelly goes. Sue gripes about Kelly in the previews, but I think Sue will want to keep her around as a potential ally against Rich/Rudy.

Rich, on the other hand, will want Kelly gone, because he wants to prevent a Kelly/Sue alliance from happening.

If Rich balks at booting Sean, Sue will (or should) threaten to bolt the alliance. Rich might cave, because if Sue breaks with the alliance, she, Kelly and Sean could band together to boot Rich. Rich will try very hard to lobby Sue to vote for Kelly.

If Sue won’t bend, and if Rich is really sneaky (and we know he is) he could lie to Sue, and tell her that he is voting Sean off, when in fact he plans to vote for Kelly. At the same time, he tells Sean that he and Rudy are voting for Kelly, and gets Sean to go along. Result: Sue votes for Sean; Rich, Rudy and Sean vote for Kelly. Kelly is gone.

So, the final four will be Sue, Sean, Rich and Rudy. Rich and Rudy then vote Sue off. Sean goes along because he is to dense to figure out that he would be next to go. Rich and Rudy then vote Sean off.

If it comes down, in the end, to a vote between Rudy and Rich (which is what Rich is angling for), I see Rich winning. Sure, we all know what a scheming, mean-spirited, arrogant jerk he is, but that’s only becuase we are privy to his on-camera confessions. Remember: his companions aren’t hearing that side of Rich. They may still think he’s a decent, fish-catching guy. What the tribe members are hearing are the various snide and mean-spirited comments by Rudy. A majority of tribe members may be under the (mistaken) impression that Rich is a helluva nice guy, while Rudy is just a mean old fart.

Hence, Rich wins. Depressing thought.

Caveat: Immunities could throw a major monkey wrench into the above scenario.

4

www.survivorsucks.com will probably be able to provide a more in-depth answer, but I’ll give it a shot.

Immunity challenges will continue, up until the last tribal council. With three people left, the winner of the immunity challenge will basically decide who stays(unless someone votes for him/herself). So the immune contestant will see who he/she thinks he/she has a better chance of beating, and will vote the other contestant off.

You have to remember that the majority of the final jury will be Pagongers. They hate Sean, dislike Richard, and are ambivalent regarding the rest. On last night’s episode the Alliance switched from Sean to Colleen because they realized that Sean would be much easier to beat in the final vote.

5

Man, times like this I wish Jeff would reveal more relevant information instead of rehasing what we already know…

Anyway, if it comes down to a three- or four-person vote (which it might; I don’t see the point of three tribal councils on one day), Richard is toast. The only person he has any chance of beating out is Sean. He may have done a pretty good job of holding his cards to his chest, but something always seems to slip through here and there, and it’s been going on for 33 days and counting.

Susan is my favorite, followed by Rudy (gruff, yeah, but not irritating or overbearing). Kelly is a longshot.

6

Hmm, I seem to recall in one the previous episodes, someone said, “Making a deal with Rich is like making a deal with the devil.” They know what a conniver he is.

7

Yeah, that was Kelly, the (alleged) credit card criminal who said that.

Anyway, mutliple councils in one episode, eh? I wonder if it will be a special, 2-hour deal, or if they just figure that by that time there wasn’t much else to show. (“Look, there’s the three of them sitting on the beach!”)

8

The official Survivor website says that Rudy comes across much better in person than on-camera, and implies that he is well-liked. So maybe Rich couldn’t beat him in a vote after all.

9

I think everyone knows Richard is an arrogant manipulator and they should all be trying to keep him there as he won’t win in the final vote. The jury is stacked against him.

I think Kelly and Sean are going to be next and then it will be Rudy, Sue, and Richard.

Will Sue and Rich gang up on the old guy knowing that he would get more votes than either of them? Let’s not forget the immunity thing, if Rudy wins his odds get really good.

10

I agree with Feynn, it will come down to Sue, Rudy, and Richard. Sue will then be gone as Rich and Rudy are tight. Then Rich will be voted off, because as the leader of the alliance nobody likes him. This leaves Rudy as the winner.
Or Rich could doublecross Rudy because he know that Sue is the only person he has a chance of winning a jury vote against.
I heard on the radio, that the final Survivor will be two hours.

11

Here’s how I think it will go down:

Booted off (wins immunity):

Sean (Richard)
Kelly (Susan)
Susan (Richard) <—the boys will ban together.

And I think they’ll pick Rudy to win.

Go figure.

12

Yup. The last episode is two hours long. And I don’t expect 3 councils in one day - I expect one council a day for three days.

13

I’m with Lawmill on this one, as far as the voting goes. Pagong will have the majority vote when it comes to the final winner. They see Rich and Sue as the ringleaders of the alliance. I don’t think that they are as mad at Rudy as they are at Rich and Sue. Rudy doesn’t come across like he pretends to be anything else than what he is. Rich and Sue come across as two faced snakes. Rich more than anyone.

I think that if Rich is one of the final two, the vote will go for whoever the other person is. The vote will probably be closer if Sue is the other person, but I think that Pagong will finally make an alliance - one against letting Rich take the money.

I think that Connor is probably correct on the council thing. Last Wednesday with 6 people there until the end of the episode, several people were talking about there only being one week left on the island.

I wonder if they’ll have an immunity challenge once it’s down to three or four people. Once it’s down to three, whoever gets immunity would decide who is going to stay with him or her. It should be interesting…

14

Have no idea how the final episode is going to play out (not even sure there’s going to be an immunity challenge), and at this point I honestly don’t care too much…I just want to see who actually manages this thing. Anyway, it’s the old gang of three plus Kelly (who’s really come on strong lately); here’s how I see the final vote playing out.

Richard vs. ANYONE: Richard eats serious big-time major-league crow as he loses in a blowout. Sean’s defeat was the final nail, as he was the last person remaining that Richard had any real chance of beating. Mark my words, the jury won’t forgive him for making life miserable for almost everyone else.

Susan vs. Rudy: Neither of them’s a saint, but remember, Susan still has the women’s vote (she’s put off Kelly a bit but I doubt Kelly would actually pick Rudy over her), whereas Rudy hasn’t exactly ingratiated himself to anybody (he even admitted such, albeit in private). Easy win for the lady trucker.

Susan vs. Kelly: A toss-up. Susan’s done more to help her cause, but Kelly might be more sympathetic, especially since she tried to bail out of the Tagi alliance. It could go down to the final vote.

Rudy vs. Kelly: Also too close to call. Which wins out, curmudgeonly-but-benign or exuberant-but-brash?
Well, that’s it. See you all after it’s done. (And hoping to hell that Richard doesn’t win, in case you haven’t guessed. ;))

15

Yup, Sean was gone, just as I predicted. Now, I think that Susan knows she has to get rid of Richard or Rudy in order to get to the final 2. If she boots Kelly off, then it’s sayanora to her the next time. So I think she’ll tell Richard she’s voting Kelly off and she and Kelly will vote against the remaining guy (whoever doesn’t have immunity), ending in a tie.

How do ties get resolved??

If a woman wins immunity, she should announce loudly, “I’m voting for Rudy.” because duplicitous Richard will turn on him if he thinks it will save his skin. Then HE’LL vote for Rudy, Rudy will vote for one of the girls, and Susan and Kelly can actually vote for Richard.

16

Am I crazy, or did Kelly give the wrong answer to the snake question last night? (Okay, nevermind the first question. Deal with the second one…)

As I recall, the question was how do you turn good luck into bad luck from a visiting snake (or something like that, the key thing here being the order of good luck and bad luck). Kelly answered, “Don’t bother it and don’t torment it,” (or words to that effect…)

Wasn’t that backwards?

17

I’ve wondered that myself. They conveniently never had one and thus never had to explain it.

18

A tie (in my view) can only be resolved in one of two ways. Either they will keep voting and voting, until its broken, or they go back and count all the previous votes as a tie-breaker.

I think the second of these is the best way, which means that they will do the first of these. My prediction? I think a tie will happen for the first TC next week (Richard and Rudy vote for Kelly, Kelly and Sue vote for Richard). Unless of course they all vote for Kelly (including Kelly :slight_smile: ).

19

PunditLisa wrote:

Ah, quit yer gloating. If Kelly hadn’t won immunity, she would have been gone, just like I predicted. :stuck_out_tongue:

and

Disagree. She even told Kelly that she wanted to keep Kelly out of the final three (presumably because she rightly thinks that she could never win a final vote against Kelly, and also because she fears Kelly might beat her in the all-important final immunity challenge).

Sue also mentioned the importance to her of the final immunity challenge. Reading between the lines, it appears that her strategy is to stick with the alliance and vote Kelly off next time, and then gamble on winning the last immunity challenge (at least a one-out-of-three shot). That would pit her against her choice of Rudy or Rich in the final vote. I think Sue is right to think that this is her best shot at winning.

Not a bad idea. Don’t think Sue will go for it, though, for a couple of reasons: 1.She knows she can’t beat Kelly in a final vote; and 2. She doesn’t want to alienate Richard and Rudy by breaking with the alliance, lest she lose their potential final votes.

20

I wonder if the voted out persons torch has really gone out during the voting stage, or if they’re just saying that for spooky atmosphere?

It kind of creeped me out when Jeff told Sean that his torch went out during the voting.