I think it’s pretty obvious Kelly gets it if she loses either of the next two immunities. She’s won it the last two times, and she’s got the best shot of winning the jury. The only way she’d lose the jury is if they find she was a double agent and resent her for that.
If she does win immunity, I think Rudy is off next, because the other Rich and Susan will recognize that Rudy would be more likely to win the Jury. The immunity wild card make it impossible to say for sure who will win, but I agree with DKW, I think we can rule out Rich winning.
Here’s my breakdown:
If Kelly wins 1st immunity, Rudy goes.
[list=A][li]If Kelly wins 2nd immunity, Sue goes, Kelly wins.[/li][li]If Rich or Sue win 2nd immunity, Kelly goes, Sue wins.[/li][/list=A]
If Kelly doesn’t win 1st immunity, she’s gone.
[list=A][li]If Rudy wins 2nd immunity, Sue goes, Rudy wins.[/li][li]If Rich or Sue win 2nd immunity, Rudy goes, Sue wins.[/li][/list=A]Sadly, Sue has the best shot.
DKW - there are two immunity challenges and three tribal councils in the finale.
Libertarian - I think you may have misheard the question (but a double check by someone who taped it couldn’t hurt). I think she answered correctly (mostly, as I thought the part about “respecting” the snake as an important phrase, but she got the gist).
What the hell was up with Rudy and the “I don’t know” answers to everything?
Yeah, I just read that thread and came back over to say “I stand corrected.” No wonder none of my predictions come true, I must not be paying close enough attention!!
Did the host ever say anything like “Kelly got them all right”?
As for Rudy, it seems he is purposely “throwing” the immunity challenges the last two weeks (last week he just dove in off the little “shrinking platform” thing).
I still maintain that the islanders don’t realize how conniving and duplicitous Rich is. We know because of his on-camera confessions, to which the other folks on the island are not privy. I still say Rich would beat either Rudy or Sue in a vote, and might even beat out Kelly.
How? In the final sales pitch to the voters, Rich could reveal that Kelly was with the alliance all along, and that she voted against the alliance only to throw off the other voters and/or to curry favor. (Kelly admitted this on last night’s episode.) With this revelation Kelly, and not Rich, would come across as the duplicitous one. Would that be enough to turn the tide? Maybe…
That Rich is one slimy character, but I do have a grudging respect for his manipulation skills.
He knew he was safe. Why stand on a plank for two hours?
Brings up another interesting point, though. Seems like it would have been a good idea for Kelly to throw the reward challenge yesterday. Her time at the bar was time the other four islanders could spend uniting against her. (She won the immunity challenge, making this a moot point, of course.) Rich’s mud total was so low, I wondered if he didn’t throw the reward challenge on purpose, so as not to give the other islanders a chance to compare notes with him away at the bar.
Regarding the answers to the folklore questions: It doesn’t matter if Kelly did miss that one, because no one else got it right either. Make sense?
During last week’s episode why did Rich say to the camera (and other people for that matter) when it was just him, Rudy, and Sue on the island: “I think its ironic that Coleen thinks she will be gone if she doesn’t win, but we planned on voting Kelly off anyways. If Kelly wins then we’d just vote for Sean.”? The tribal council was probably only a few hours later…
Then, at the tribal council, he said to the camera something saying why he voted this and what he said contained the word “he”, as if he voted for Sean. His vote was never shown, but when the tally came out it was apparant the only two people that voted for Sean was Kelly and Coleen with 4 votes for Coleen.
IMHO, I think Sue has the best chance of winning, then Rudy (only if he wins the second immunity challange), then Kelly (only if she wins last two immunities that is), and then Richard. I dont think Richard would be allowed to speak to the jury to let them know Kelly was a double agent, but even if he was allowed I dont think the jury would buy it, and would just see it as another trick Rich is playing.
If it comes down to a final vote between Richard or Sue vs Rudy or Kelly the jury will probably either: a) Vote for the former because they know that they plotted the alliance or [in Rudy’s case] b) Vote for the former because they [Pagong] are more of a “Play Nice”/Anti-Alliance crowd and therefor possibly appreciate the fact that Rudy speaks whats on his mind and not try to put up a false image.
Either way, I think its highly unlikely Richard will win. I think the Pagong know how Rich played and dislike that fact. The reason I think they know is Coleen during one clip said to the camera “Making a deal with Rich is like making a deal with the devil.” and she probably expressed her opinions to the other ‘jury’ members.
Actually, I’m pretty sure that was Kelly. Colleen didn’t make any deals with Rich, AFAIK. But I do think they are on to Rich. If they aren’t, they will be when the last two get voted off. According the TV Guide closeup on the final episode, they grill the final two pretty good, but of course, no details on that.
Edlyn and I just consulted the cable schedule for August 23. They show Survivor on from 8:00 to 10:00 EDT, and then a one hour special called, “Survivor: The Reunion”. Of it, the description said that the players will talk about their experience.
Sean was booted. Unless Kelly wins immunity all the way til the end, she will be next. It will come down to Sue-Rich-Rudy alliance. Anyone who makes it into Survivor II should take note, that alliance was formed waaaay back in like episode 2 or 3. They were conniving and backstabbing, but they understood how to play the game - and they will have gotten to the end. If in fact Kelly does go next, I think Rudy will win it all. Here’s how : Rich and Rudy have been voting together since the 2nd episode, they were the core of the original alliance. Rudy has been a stand up guy all along, he has kept his word and mentioned he will not take well anyone who does not keep theirs. Rich is backstabbing yes, but when it comes down to Rudy or Sue I think he will toss Sue off. The vote will then be between Rich and Rudy and I don’t see any reason why anyone would vote for Rich or against Rudy. Therefore, the cranky old man takes home the mill. My prediction.
I still think it was Coleen, since I remember it was said half-jokingly in one of the clips. I think she was saying this since she knew there was a alliance and it should have been said “[anyone] who makes a deal with Rich is making a deal with the devil.” Not as if she had been offered a deal. But of course you can take it however you want, anyone got it on tape?
I agree exactly with NothingMan. I think that if Kelly doesn’t win immunity then she is next off. (If they are still having immunity…I’m not sure how it works next week.) Then Rich will turn on Sue and of course, nobody is going to vote for Rich to win.
The thing is, I think Rich might recognize he’d lose the jury against Rudy. Rudy and Sue probably realize they each stand the best chance in the final two against Rich, and therefore will likely vote against each other, barring immunity. At this stage, they will (or should) vote off whoever they perceive is the biggest threat to beating them in the jury. But I concede my perceptions may not be the same as the final four or the jury.
Oh yea… And according to TV Guide, there are two more immunity challenges for the next two votes, and then the final jury vote. So without evidence, it’s impossible to say who wins. I personally hope it’s Rudy or Kelly…
I’m pretty sure it was Kelly that made the comment about making an alliance with Rich being like making a deal with the devil. It spawned a lot of conversation here afterward.
To clear things up, it was Coleen who said it. At the end of Episode 10. She was sitting in a tree, and the camera guy had apparently asked her about the alliance. She had just recently made friends with Kelly, and was aware of Richard and his coniving. That’s when she said it.
I think Connor is right; it was Colleen who made the “deal with the devil” comment.
But then after she was voted off, Colleen said (in her little parting confession) that Rich had redeemed himself in her eyes. She apparently harbors no ill will toward Rich. Does Rich have the other islanders similarly fooled?
The last 2 people booted off, whoever they are, will know about Rich’s duplicity. Sean, although naive, had nothing nice to say about Rich, but seems to be quite fond of Sue. For all Sean’s flaws, he seems to be a pretty honest guy and I think the other jury members will be influenced by his opinion.
BTW, I wonder if the “jury” has been talking to each other these last couple weeks about who they like, etc. or if they are under some sort of gag order, like real juries during a trial. Also, I wonder if prior to the final vote they get to discuss their vote, or if it’s just a “no-discussion, vote now” deal.
Anyway, if Sue and Kelly had any sense, they’d see the handwriting on the wall. Their only chance to make it into the final 2 is to: a) win immunity both times; or b)divide the men. And the only way to divide the men is through Richard. Rudy, being a former military man, would sooner die than go back on his word, so he’ll NEVER vote against Rich…unless Rich betrays him. Because even if he is a curmudgeon, Rudy at least has honor.
If Rich gets immunity next time, Kelly is definitely screwed. Then Sue’s only chance is immunity. And since she’s not won one yet…