No one’s mentioned the gambling scandal?
News report earlier this week said that some CBS/Survivor employees were in hot water for betting on the outcome on an Internet gaming site that took Survivor bets. Apparently they bet enough to move the line,
and the odds-on favorites are now Jenna and Matt. Which is looking not unreasonable at the moment.
I’m not so sure about that. Alex seems to be pretty tight with him too. And Jenna is at least pretending to like him for Alex’s sake. (I also agree that Jenna is smarter than she first seemed.) But Alex isn’t completely befuddled by the girls like Dave was. It’s possible that he’ll realize that he has a better chance against Rob in F2 than against either of the girls.
Rob could try to forge an alliance with the outsiders, Matt, Christy and Butch, but I don’t think he will, or even necessarily should. He’d be in basically the same position with them if they made it to F4, and then the only one he’d stand a chance against in F2 would be Matt. But then he’d also have Alex, Jenna and Heidi on the jury, who would be likely to vote against him just out of spite for turning on them.
Plus, I think Rob is attracted to power. He wants to be with the in-crowd. He wants to be with the pretty people.
Deena tried to convince her cronies that Alex was the biggest threat after Matt. She wanted to vote him off after Matt, or before if Matt won immunity. Perfectly true and sensible (from her POV anyway), but what she failed to take into account was how much Jenna wanted Alex to stay. Jenna believes her best strategy is to make the boys love her so they will keep her around. Alex is her main boy toy. I think she does genuinely like him, but she also sees him as an asset. (I don’t think he’s as pliable as she thinks, but that’s for another day…)
Another nail in Deena’s coffin was that she discussed this with Heidi, Rob, and Christy while Alex and Jenna were off bonding at the coffee hut. She asked them not to say anything to Jenna until the time was right. But of course, Heidi is much tighter with Jenna than with Deena, so she spilled the beans immediately upon their return.
Thus, in Jenna-ese, “stabbed us all in the back” translates to “made a strategic decision that would separate me from my sweetheart.” So the bitch had to go.
Also not mentioned yet was Alex’s comment at the coffee hut about how suprised he was at how much the four of them (Alex, Rob, Heidi and Jenna) have bonded. That suprised me, because we hadn’t seen any bonding between Rob and any of the Boobsy Twins. Apparently, they actually do get along.
I don’t know about that. Alex is pretty popular all around, and seen as a strong player. I think he would beat Jenna or Heidi if it came to a vote. Alex is in no way “fooled” by the girls, and in some ways seems to be playing them with their own game plan. Rob’s insistance at being scene as a “nice funny guy”, not the pathetic grasping attention whore he actually is will hurt him come vote drive.
I cannot think the “big 3” will want Robb to have any allies- so bye bye Matt (they will say- for Jury voting purposes- that he was “too strong”). Then either Butch or Christy on the block with the other to follow. The only twist is a surprise attack on Rob after Matt is disposed of.
Depends on how far they want to bring Robb along and whether he finally gets caught scheming or making those childish faces of his.
In any event, things are still quite interesting. 
Matt could conceivably pull a Colby, and run the rest of the ICs.
The final 2 confrontation with the jury should be very entertaining this year.
What happened between Deena and Jenna that made Jenna so amd at her? Why did Jenna keep saying Deena stabbed everyone in the bacK? Was it because Deena was trying to get rid of Jenna’s boy-toy Alex?
Yes, I agree that Deena got too smug. She had it coming.
I think Christy may be next. I like her and she is giving it all she’s got, but she’s a little clueless. She was right in that bug-eating thing, trying hard. Jenna didn’t even try with the cricket. When they got the grubs in the bowl, Christy picked the whole bowl up and dumped them in her mouth.
Don’t read unless you know about the gambling scandal…
that’s my thinking, from that gambling thing
oh ** jsc1953 **
i mentioned that gambling thing but it was fully put in the spoiler not to tip off anyone. I think that this scandal kinda ruined my virginity to the contestants. I know have a point of view that either matt is gonna fool them all or he’s gonna run all the IC’s from now on.
I just realized something. While everything we’re now seeing happened several months ago, the very last Tribal Council will happen live in several weeks’ time.
So the jury will have the benefit of having seen all of the last two players’ camera confessionals before they vote.
If Rob is in the final two, that won’t be good for him.
Fiver, the last tribal council is held before they leave the island. It’s only the reveal of the votes that’s put off until live after the series has run on TV. The votes are already cast and counted.
Thread title emended to connonte presence of spoilers.
– Uke, Cafe Society moderator
Oh right, Jadis. I forgot.
I can see Jenna’s point. There was a five member alliance of Deena, Jenna, Heidi, Alex, and Rob. There were three people outside of the alliance. Deena then said they should vote out one of the alliance members before voting off a non-member as a second choice if their first choice, Matthew, won immunity. It was a stab in the back, especially when Deena clearly let Matthew win the immunity when the two of them got to the final round. Deena made the mistakes of thinking Rob, Heidi, and Jenna were more loyal to her than to Alex and of telling everyone how they needed to vote off the strong threats when she herself was a strong threat. I think that’s the point of one of Dave B’s rules: Don’t plot just for the sake of plotting. If things are going in your favor, don’t change things.
Rob also made a mistake of holding his lecture to everyone. Unless he’s playing a very deep game, Matthew trusts Rob completely. But now all it would take is for anyone to go to Matthew and tell him how Rob was bragging about how much he’s misleading Matthew, and Matthew chops up Rob with his machete and uses him for bait.
And let me add my personal plea on the spoilers. I know there apparently is some information floating around out there based on insider information and betting odds. I am purposely not reading this because it would spoil the fun of the show for me. So please, if you have information about the betting scandal, think before you post. And that includes quoting other spoiler posts.
Thanks…But now that the episode has aired, they are no longer spoilers. The only spoilers still in this thread are in proper spoiler boxes.
Oh well. Better late than never.
OK, after thinking about it, here’s what Rob should do. He should set up a REAL alliance with Matt and Butch, then try to get Christie with them. As has been pointed out, Alex and the Boobsie Twins will vote him out into fourth place. Matt and Butch, however, are already used to doing what Rob says and seem to have placed their fates in his hands (which is really stupid, of course). They’d be so grateful to be kept around, let alone made part of the ruling group, that they’d keep Rob around much longer. Rob would be an idiot to throw away two people who will vote as he says. He’d have a much better chance with those two.
Yeah, that’s a good plan for Rob, Smeghead. And it should work, because there’s surely no love lost between Christy and the Boobsies.
Speaking of whom, did anyone else notice Heidi misspelled the name on her vote again this week? She voted for “Denna.”
I don’t agree, Smeghead. As I indicated earlier, I don’t think switching would give him any particular advantage, and would have one largish disadvantage.
It’s true that Matt seems to trust Rob implicitly, which is sad. But Butch is only going along because he knows he has no other choice. His partners are gone, and he’s grasping at straws. If he were to suddenly come into power, I’d expect things to change, and he already has a bond with Christy. And Christy also dislikes Matt, and I’ve seen no signs she’s particularly fond of Rob either.
Either way it shakes out, Rob would have to work hard to make the final two. It seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible. But in your scenario, he’d have three definite “no” votes on the jury—Alex, Jenna and Heidi, who he would have betrayed.
It’s a pretty slim chance for him either way, but I think he should stick with the alliance he’s got.
Well, that makes two of us.
Just saying I don’t think Rob’s situation is as simple as “He’s an idiot to stay where he is. He’ll be gone number four.” Alex could decide to keep him. Heck, as someone said earlier (pardon me for not scrolling up to find out who) the girls might even decide to dump Alex, the greater physical threat. Much as I dislike them personally, the girls do have a pretty good grasp of Survivor strategy.
Agreed. This one has been pretty unpredictable. I like it!