Survivor 3-26 (on a Weds again)

Cafe Society
1

Time for the weekly Survivor thread.

I’m assuming the hints are correct and this week sees the merge. If so, the big question will be if original tribal alliances hold. The results of six men and four women could soon see this season becoming Survivor: Testasterone.

But my guess is it won’t come to that. The Dave/Rodger/Butch alliance looks strong, but Rob, Alex, and Matthew seem to have fallen out of it. I also wonder if the surviving four women can pull their old alliance together. Magic Eightball says “signs are not good”.

Predictions? None really. I’m guessing that after the merge everyone will be shuffling around, trying to get in a good position. D,R&B will probably come out on top, by picking up whatever strays they need to vote out whoever looks the most threatening to them.

2

I think the one to watch will be Deena. She seems pretty devoted to her old boobie alliance, but I don’t think that they’re devoted to her. I think we will see two dynamics going on–alliances formed for purely strategic purposes, and alliances forming based on mutual respect.

I think we might see Butch, Roger, and Christy as the nucleus of a strong alliance based on mutual respect. But they don’t seem to be schemers. Deena and Rob have some good strategizing going on. Scheming can backfire, though…

While Dave chose the better team, I think he made a mistake in believing what Jenna was telling him. She blurted everything, but it was her version of the truth. Y’know, that version where Heidi is really great? I think he’s trying to get in with Heidi, not realizing that she is a weak, lazy, dodo.

So, in a nutshell, I’m guessing that the new alliances will be:

Dave, Heidi, and Jenna.
Roger, Christy, and Butch.
Deena, Rob, and Matt.
Alex is kind of a wild card. Jenna will either keep pursuing him because she has hot pants for him, or she will snub him because she’s mad that he liked Shawna better. If Roger, Butch, and Christy actually bother to strategize and they manage to recruit Alex, then that would be a great alliance.

3

I agree that Deena is capable of forming a strong alliance, but unfortunately she doesn’t have much to work with. She was originally stuck joinging the cute girl alliance and now she’s trying to recruit Rob. When I wrote in my previous post that Dave, Rodger, and Butch would eliminate whoever looked like the biggest threat, I was thinking that Deena probably is their biggest threat (although unlike Heidi or Rob, she’s smart enough not to look like a threat).

Dave, Rodger, and Butch should maintain their current alliance with Christy and Heidi. They’d then need only one more vote for a safe majority and either Alex or Jenna should be easy to bring in. Alex would probably be safer because of the risk of the three women joining together against the three men.

Another factor is that Dave and Rodger must know how much Rob (and possibly Matthew) dislike them. They should therefore try to eliminate one of them this week as it will be their last opportunity to keep a hostile vote off the jury.

4

I’m pretty sure they merge this week; previews have shown them in red buffs.
Someone mentioned last week that maybe the new buffs are what’s in the locked box they’ve hadd all this time.
They get to find out what’s in it this week. That’s a good guess, and I’d go with that, too. New buffs, and maybe directions to a new campsite? Or a game on how they pick which campsite will be the main one?

They’ve been showing the “Girls Gone Wild” clip quite a bit. I hope it doesn’t have its intended purpose (distracting others) and Heidi and Jenna lose the competition. My TV guide in the newspaper says this competition is for an individual food reward.
(no real spoiler, just boxed for the truly preview-virginal) :wink:

5

I think there will be an imagined merge. Jeff Probst said that the tribes hadn’t seen the fake merge of Thailand so they could use it on this group again, but that they would mix it up a bit, since the viewers have already seen it played out one way. So they’ll be living on the same beach with their new buffs-those being the ones in the locked box along with the maps to the new tribal site-but somehow it will not be a true merge.
I think that Alex will get the boot this week. It’s obvious that he and Shawna had a chance to hook up and spend some time together in losers lounge, and tonite’s bootee is the last one to not be sequestered with the jury. He’s certainly got Matt’s vote, and Matt will surely let all the other guys know he immediately abandoned his Tambaqui ties because he was in looooove with his little scratchng post!
I hope Deena’s scheming skills are intact after getting beefed in the head!

6

I’ll go with Alex as he suffers from a combination of Shawna related fall-out and picking up a couple of votes as a perceived physical threat.

I say it’s just a normal merge, but tribal alliances won’t fall out along gender lines, if only because the women will work hard to avoid having it come to that. After all they are down 6-4. I think the dominant alliane will end up being Deena, Christy, Roger, and Butch. I have no basis for that prediction.

7

Most likely to be voted out - Alex.
If not him, Matt. Don’t think anyone really LIKES Matt - tho various people seem to want to keep him around to try to use him.
Jenna and Heidi will be strong enough together to protect each other, with the attraction of a walking dick or 2. But their days - especially Heidi’s - are numbered. Butch, Roger, and others will be surprised if J remains a bitch towards Christy.
Rob is soon going to find that he has maneuvered himself into limbo.
My biggest question is whether Dave is as clueless as he seems, or if that is actualy a front. Can anyone remember previous candidates appearing to the cameramen other than they really seem to be? Presenting a false front (apologies Heidi) as it were.

My choice for final 5 - Deena, Christy, Butch, Roger, Dave.

8

I’m 0-2 the last two weeks, so take my prognostications with a tablespoon of salt. Here’s how I see the alliances shaping up:

  1. Butch, Roger, and Christy seem solid. They are probably joined by Dave, though he seems shaky.

  2. Jenna, Heidi, and Deena aren’t likely to turn on each other, and they’re joined for now by Rob.

Alex and Matt are the wild cards, which makes them both targets for tonight. Matt will probably stick with Rob for the moment, though I can’t see that as a long-term thing.

Alex cannot be happy with J-D-Rob-Matthew for booting his girlfriend last week, but I don’t see him getting chummy with B-R-C, either. That makes Alex the outsider and an easy target of opportunity this week. Look for it to be a pretty overwhelming consensus, 9-1 or 8-2.

I think next week is when we’ll really see the alliance-shifting go into overdrive. The gender-split and the subsequent shuffle will really make this the most fluid game since S1. And there’s no Rich or Brian around this time to play puppetmaster, since Rob seems too inept to make that work for him. This is gonna get interesting!

9

Yeah, they’re my picks too.

Other than that, I’m not gonna try to predict, because I’m always wrong. Well, I usually pick based on who I want to win, not who I think will win, and I’m usually disappointed…

But I will say that if the Mystery Box turns out to contain only the new buffs and a map, that will be lame. They knew they were going to get those eventually anyway. The Box should have something cool and unexpected. What that should be, I don’t know…maybe tasers!:wink:

10

Dammit!! I missed last week!! (Even though I read last week’s thread.) I will be sure to watch it tonight - hey!! Great way to get out of rotting at my dad’s house!! He won’t want to watch it. (It’s beneath him, you know?)

Gotta get back in the swing of things and know what’s going on.

(Do they ever re-show a particular episode in the same week - like, at 2 in the morning on a Sunday or something?)

11

Avarie537, I don’t think they usually reshow it. They did last week, though, since the war started right in the middle of it in a couple of time zones. But that’s really no help to you now, so I’m sorry.

12

Avarie: If you ever miss a show, check out the recaps at www.televisionwithoutpity.com. They’re very detailed. And a laff riot, too.

13

Dang, ABT got the boot wrong again. I have to say, I was really worried the whole show with how they were going on and on about Roger going home. Usually when they do that, you can be pretty well assured that someone else is going. I guess that there was so little other scheming going on, they had no other choice but to nail it again and again and play up Roger’s complete cluelessness.

I’m glad he’s gone. Fookin’ homophobic ass. Feh.

14

Finally the major a$$hole and bigot that Roger is gets the mofo boot to the head. Is this guy clueless to his a$$hole’ish (if there isnt a word, i elect that he be the poster boy for it) behaviour? Man even if you are part of another generation, i think you should have some understanding of what others perceive you.

I’m glad he’s gone and not part of the jury, even tho I’m not too keen on seeing anybody win this wacked out version of survivor.

Seems that Butch and Dave are also clueless to their fates. Well next week will be a nice episode…

Crazy murderous Matteo is gonna show his true colours and murder someone. Him sharpening that machete, bloodbath time hehe. Oh man, do I wish I wasn’t Alex right now. But i did like Alex’s comment on the immunity/reward challenge where Roger set his own fate as well as missing out on food.

Christy… hmmm anyone want to tell me why everyone loves her so much? She’s deaf, uses it as some excuse and people like that? She is not a player at all. She just rides the majority and is used like a cheap public washroom’s one-ply toilet paper. She isn’t a player, won’t be a factor, and seems not to be scheming and just riding coat tails. Now again why is she so popular? She’s being played and clueless to the fact that she’s being played.

Now Rob and Deena seem to be working the whole tribe to their own wills. I hope it blows up in their faces. I hope machete Matteo teaches them not to scheme against him. hehe.

Heidi and Dave are supposedly going to hook up in the future episode. Smart move by the dumb blond to get her the quick boot for being a questionable ally.

Is Jenna plotting with the others as well? or she just going with the flow? Seemed like the old boobie alliance made the decision of Roger getting the boot when initially Dave was supposed to go. He grated on their nerves as well as the male members of Jabaru’s nerves.

I think ** Deena ** is going to win it all. She seems the most in tune with the game. Very observant, plotting well, getting immunity, doing things at her own will when things around her aren’t so rosy.

I want Butch to win, he seems the most genuine and likeable.

Oh and set your timers to the original air-time for next week’sSurvivor. 8PM EST Thursday. It’s gonna be a good one. Suspense, murder, romance and probably some comic relief with man-boobs Rob.

15

I missed all but the last part of the episode, and TelevisionWithoutPity doesn’t have their synopsis up yet. Can anyone tell me why the hell the people were stripping? I heard something like it was for pizza.

16

Dave is a dead man. I will soon have 30 geek points riding on that. If it is anything like the last 3 weeks, they will be entirely wasted.

Damn you, Mark Burnet!

17

When has she ever used her deafness as “an excuse”? And an excuse for what? For being on the winning side in the majority of challenges, and essentially tying for first in the first individual challenge? Being the only player to win both her matches in the log roll competition last week?

And why do you think she’s being “played”? I see no evidence of that. Sure, she went a bit gushy when Butch praised her last week, but that’s pretty normal, IMO. That doesn’t mean she’s not playing the game.

As for why I like her anyway, she’s sweet, genuine, articulate, reasonably intelligent, competent, pulls her weight without complaining (and complaining privately to the interview camera doesn’t count), and she’s pretty as well.

So :stuck_out_tongue:

…

Anyway, as for the show…there’s never been a better time to break the tradition of deliberately obscuring the bootee. I liked Rob’s comments as he voted. “Na na, na na na na…” Heh. I’m glad Roger is gone. Asshole.

And in further Rob news, he shows new and unprecedented levels of shallowness. “All my sex stories involve me and a fat girl.” Charming. And thinking he has a shot at a threesome with H&J! Dream on…

18

It was the stand on a perch immunity challenge and Probst said there will be temptations like food. Jenna said she would take off her top for chocolate. Heidi did too. They jumped off soon after.

I loved Alex cracking up in his confessional about how great the IC was, especially when he laughed that Roger sold out for nothing. What a sore loser too. The best part was that he was so clueless the entire episode.

And Christy hasn’t really used it as an excuse but she was playing the victim card a lot in the early part of the season. She is okay now.

19

Well, other than thinking the Dave, Rodger, Butch alliance would hold and this week would see a merger and a lot of reshuffling, I missed it again. It appears the other seven were a lot more organized than I imagined. Deena’s leadership was expected but Rob’s is surprising. His relative lack of cluelessness about the game seems a surprising contrast to his oblivousness in real life. Maybe some guy named Rob stole Mark Burnett’s girlfriend back in high school and he’s getting revenge now by defaming the name year after year.

The two that surprised me the most were Alex and Christy. I figured after watching the other four vote off Shawna last week, he’d be eager to rejoin his original tribemates. And I figured Christy, the last person asked to join the cute girl alliance, would stay with the three Tambaqui men. But they’ve burned that bridge.

I liked the way they played up the entire episode as “The Decline and Fall of Roger Sexton”. I have to say that for a series that I felt started slow, this year is now interesting. At this point, it’s almost impossible to guess what’s coming next. Dave seems like the obvious next target, but his apparent flirtation with Heidi may throw that off. Will the alliance target Butch instead? He’s been quiet and seems to have avoided making enemies. The hints about Matthew going nuts are probably typical overhype, but it could still effect next week’s voting. But even if the alliance does the obvious and votes off Dave and Butch in the next two episodes, it’ll be interesting to see how things break up after that.

Will next week’s episode be a recap? Don’t they usually do that right after the merge?

20

Well, she did complain, when specifically asked at the TC, that she felt excluded by the others. This was not a particularly smart thing to do, but it was in fact true. The Boobie Alliance was excluding her, and being right bitches to her, intentionally or not. She shouldn’t have said so anyway, because people tend to become defensive when their bad behavior is pointed out to them. It definitely made an enemy of Jenna, who had been mostly indifferent to her before. So it was a bad political move, but she was completely right.

If you call that “playing the victim card”, then I guess she did. But she’s still been one of the more valuable and productive members of the team. And, as you say, she seems to have toned it down lately, and isn’t showing her emotions so much.

Anyway, I’m pulling for her. Her, Deena, and Butch are my favorites.