Survivor 4/13: "Fight for Your Life or Eat"

Cafe Society
41

In my opinion:

In both instances, I’d say still vote for Sally. You want that immunity idol out of play.

Now, I don’t think Option B would ever happen, unless it was done for show, and Sally gave it back when nobody was looking prior to Tribal Council. BUT…if you mean by Option B, what if you somehow KNEW Sally had the immunity idol going into tribal council, I would have orchestrated the Casaya voting as such:

Bruce and two voters: Sally
Remaining three voters: Bruce

(This is based on my wanting Bruce out of there…substitute names as you see fit)

This would have resulted in:

  • Sally: 3
  • Bruce: 3
  • Aras: 2

Sally would have used the hidden idol, and Bruce would have been gone. But, since I don’t think there’s any god-loving way that Terry would give up the idol, this would have resulted in a tie between S & B. Every season has had a different means for dealing with this…a one-on-one survival challenge (Palau), prior votes (Australia), Purple Rock of Doom (Marquesas), trivia (Africa…albeit, when there were no prior votes to count).

Two scenarios:

Hidden Immunity had been used:

  • Aras goes home
  • The remaining five Casaya are more resolved than ever to get out Terry and Sally
  • Terry OR Sally is ensured to go home the following week
  • The first opportunity that Terry does NOT win immunity, he gets the boot.

Hidden Immunity not used (current state):

  • The six Casaya know or strongly guess that one of them is going home next, and their voting strategy causes them to turn on each other…especially if Terry wins immunity and they know they can’t vote for him
  • This splintering may allow Terry to fly under the radar
  • Terry has a “bye” in winning immunity at least one week, so ensured to be in the final six

One thing that Terry does have going for him, that he hasn’t played up…if a Casaya member surreptitiously gets him to the Final Two, there will be five Casaya members on the jury. If the cards get played right, and Terry is shuffled to the final round in a not-so-obvious manner, it may be a lock-up in votes for whoever is sitting next to him. But, if it is found out that it was orchestrated as such, it would likely backfire on the Casaya member…so they’d have to be damn careful.

42

In a hypothetical 3-3-2 Sally/Bruce/Aras tie, why would Sally play the idol before the tiebreaker? Break the tie first, I would think, and only then ask the loser if they have the idol. Plus if Terry or Sally get wind of it, they vote for Bruce and he loses outright. Way too damn risky for Casaya to split their vote. If Sally has the idol, it’s far better to sacrifice Aras (who, unless you’re Aras, you’d just as soon not have around to compete against anyways) to get rid of the thing.

Plus, if Sally does have the idol and plays it, sending Bruce home, the other two people who voted for Sally are going to feel betrayed, and will be ripe for the picking by Terry and Sally. Unless they’re in on it, but then you have to make sure Terry, Sally, and Bruce don’t have any clue whatsoever what’s going down, or Bruce will flip and vote with T & S.

No, keep it simple. Ridiculously complicated strategies only work if your name is Rob C.

43

Of course, the HI would be gone, but S&T would still be there - having had the opportunity to oust whoever they wanted from the Casavas.

I’m sure I’d do terribly at Survivor, but couldn’t they have said "the 2 of us are staying, even if you make us burn the HI. Now which of you wants to align with us to guarantee that we won’t target YOU?"

Do you know this for a fact?
Could she use the HI following the inital vote, or only after the tie is resolved?
Also, what if S happened to beat B in the tiebreaker?
S&T would still be there without even having to reveal the HI.

In the meantime, there would be plenty of opportunity for the Casava loose-cannots to go off.

I agree, however, given what we see of T’s character, I don’t see him ever giving up HI.

44

That’s an interesting point. We don’t know how it works, but I had envisioned that the idol would have to be played prior to the tiebreaker. Who knows…nobody here, that’s for sure.

As to T&S saying, join with us or you’re gone…if I was Casaya, I’d rather choose who from my team left (Bruce or Danielle, the most likely to turn) rather than let T&S choose (Aras…who may be the best bet to get Terry off his immunity run).

But, it still comes down to the point that Terry didn’t and never would have given up his immunity unless it guaranteed swinging votes in their favor, which it failed to do on several attempts.

45

[QUOTE=middleman]
Man. One of my favorites gets the boot. No surprise. The outsider Casayas went with the dvil they knew instead of the devil they didn’t. It looks like the only hope for a LaMina victory is Super Terry. He might just do it.

I am glad Jeff signed an extension to his contract. I would have hated for this to be his last season. He would have gone at on a low note.

And now, the less anticipated, highly derivative RICH RANKINGS! (Tribe and previous ranking in parenthesis)

FORGOT TO FILE A 1040- I guess you couldn’t outwit everyone!

Tina,Melinda,Misty,Ruth, Bobby,Dan,Nick- Now that there is a jury, we will no longer comment on these losers.

THE BOBBY JON LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD- The Jury deserves a special distinction from those in loser lodge.

Austin- (Jury/LaMina)- Did you see the smiles of all the Survivors when he walked in last night? What a likeable guy.
Sally- (Jerky/La Mina)- One of the few likeable ones left.

EATING BEEF JERKY- You’re still playing, but you’re praying for a tribe scramble!

Aras- (Rat/Casaya)- Someone besides Terry goes next week. I think it will be Aras.

WHO SAID ANYTHING ABOUT A MERGE?- Middle of the pack players, the lotta ya!

No wallflowers this week.

HEY! LOOK AT HIS MOHAWK-You might make the merge, but you’re grimacing from the jury row!

Courtney- (Mohawk/Casaya)- I could see her leading the three girls and Bruce to the final four.
Danielle- (Merge/Casaya)- No matter what the split, I think she makes the last episode.

LOOKING FOR A BIG TOM TO ENGLISH DICTIONARY- Big Tom has spent more combined days on the show than anyone. But he didn’t quite grab the brass ring.

Cirie- (Tom/Casaya)- The safest person in the game. She could be a compromise (undeserving) winner.
Bruce- (Tom/Casaya)- At least his art was pretty.

ARE YOU A RAT OR A SNAKE?- Reserved for a MAXIMUM of two players. You have to be in the driver’s seat for this spot.

Terry- (Rat/La Mina)- I don’t think he’s going to need the idol with this bunch.
Shane- (Mohawk/Casya)- I am starting to think Shane might be the favorite. He seems well liked and has the edge if Aras and Terry get knocked off.

46

Yeah, but if Terry > Bruce/Cirie/Shane/Danielle/Courtney

and Aran > Terry

Doesn’t that mean you are simply changing which guy will run the Immunitiy contests from then on?
I think their best chance of beating Terry comes if they revive the old “how much do you know about the others” trivia contests. I’m guessing that Cerie, at least, is one of those people who really notices and remembers personal details about the other players.

Besides, wouldn’t it be extra sweet to have SuperMacho Terry taken down my the fat “older” woman?

47

I know, right? I wish I knew what in the name of all that is righteous and holy is going on with my reality programs this year. I mean, this “Survivor” is just about the crappiest crap that ever crapped; it’s even worse than Vanuatu, I think, and I hated the Vanuatu season more than my husband hates Brussels sprouts. I don’t even think this current crop of castaways are even interesting enough to hate, although for a while I did give the ol’ college try in the general direction of Cirie and Shane. They don’t even rate a “meh” at this point, and it doesn’t help that this is, what? The eleventy thousandth season in Panama? Hello, Burnett! There’s, like, a whole 'nother hemisphere out there!

Add to this the fact that we’re already halfway through “The Amazing Race” and we’re not out of Europe yet, and it’s just about enough to suck away one’s will to live. Although, in the interest of fairness, Phil is about two dozen kinds of hot (and maybe twice that, when you factor in the eyebrows), and as obnoxious as Eric & Jeremy and BJ & Tyler are, heckling them from the relative comfort and safety of my own living room is still a damned fine hour of cheap entertainment. Plus, there are those incriminating photos out on the web.

So, anyway … yeah, I’m still watching, but only because I’m still sort of hoping for a volcanic eruption or a tidal wave or a major earthquake that will suck the remaining Survivors into the center of the earth. Now that would be fun and exciting.

48

And this is the lamest group of American Idols, ever. Must have something to do with sunspots, or the Chinese zodiac.

49

I didn’t even know the Chinese zodiac had a Year of the Dweeb!

50

Duh … what else could explain the Cosmic Convergence of: Ace, Aras, and the Attack of the Killer Weavers?

51

On a side note… was anyone thinking what I was thinking about Bernard and his “lets get this job going” approach on *Lost *this week? Hey Bernard, you’re acting just like the older guys on “Survivor” who are are always the first ones voted off!

52

The type of immunity challenge that Terry would be most likely to lose is one in which the members can choose to gang up on one person and knock that person out early. For example, remember the challenge where each player got to shoot rocks from a slingshot at plates belonging to the other players, and once a person had all three of their plates broken, they were out? If they did some variation on that challenge, everyone who be taking aim at Terry’s plates immediately.

53

Have they ever done that for an Immunity Challenge? To my memory, it’s only been done for reward. It’s far too easy to “pre-vote” in that kind of challenge for immunity.

54

I have only seen it used for reward.

What would be cool is if they did use it for IC, but made the challenges insanely difficult.

55

Am I alone in thinking this season is a pretty good Survivor?

I like that a group of 6 mostly interesting people are doing what should be done. Stick together and pick them off.

I’ll take this year over last season any day. My wife and I honestly had to think for a few minutes just to remember who won last season and it was just a few months ago.

56

They have done that for immunity many times. It started during Survivor: Outback during Season Two, in Episode 11, with the “Blue Plate Special” challenge. Each Survivor had their name written on three plates, hanging from trees. Each player had to use a slingshot to fire away at their opponents’ plates, and the last person with a plate left won immunity. Same was done in Episode 11 of Africa, clay pots and African throwing sticks.

Perhaps the most famous incident was in Episode 8 of Survivor: Marquesas, when the challenge involved bundles of coconuts hanging from a tree. Each Survivor had three bundles associated with their name, and if you answered a trivia question right, you got to chop down someone’s bundles…once all three of yours were gone, you were out of the competition.

In this challenge, the tribes were split 4-3-2 (four original members of the Rotu tribe, two original members of the Maraamu tribe and three members of Rotu who got shuffled over to Maraamu). The Rotu Four planned to go all the way to the final four, and assumed that the former three members of their tribe would help them eliminate the two remaining Maraamu. However, during the Coconut Challenge, the Rotu Four clearly showed the pecking order of who was to go after the Maraamu Two, and this was enough to get three former Rotus to switch sides and start knocking off the Rotu Four, one by one. Was beautiful.

If the group wants Terry out, I’d feel more comfortable with a trivia challenge than a “break things” challenge…think their odds are better.

57

I think it’s symptomatic of the last few seasons of Survivor, actually. I still can’t remember who won Guatemala. I know Second-Chance Steph was in the Final 2 but I can’t even remember who the other one was. Or who won. And I’ve been trying to remember since yesterday afternoon, for similar reasons to yours.

58

Was the Guatemala winner Dani? Or do I still just have too many scary memories of her stick-thin body?

59

I had to cheat and look on the Survivor website, but yeah, Dani was the winner of Guatemala. Which is pretty bad considering that until you mentioned her, Mama Tiger, I’d totally forgotten she even existed let along won $1million.

60

Personally I think the women are scheming to make it an all-woman Final 3.

If Terry does make it to the Final 2, the final tribal council should be very interesting. Anyone voted off now will feel betrayed by his/her own tribe and might very well vote for Terry to get the million bucks out of spite.