Survivor 4/30/09

After Sierra told them about coach and Debbie’s lie, Erinn said to Sierra “I’m not putting your name down tonight”. I’m pretty sure she voted for Stephen for that reason and wanted to apologize for it. She probably didn’t want to vote for Debbie to make it look like she was in an aliance with Sierra or anything. Now with Sierra on the jury, if she makes it to the final 2, she can say…yeah, sorry I was a bitch to you a whole bunch for no reason, but I didn’t put your name down remember? Remember?

And that surprises you … why?

The Jalapaos said that they re-check the treemail guy all the time to make sure an idol hasn’t been re-hidden there. And they said they sent Erinn instead of Coach or Debbie because C&D have no idea that two idols were in play. As far as C&D are concerned, Brendan had the idol, and took it with him. So the Jalapaos + Erinn are trying to keep the existence of the second one under wraps within their alliance.

Jeez … Welcome to the Division of Redundancy Department this morning. Must finish coffee before posting.

That’s what I took it as.

Stephen said something similar; “Lord, lay not this sin to their charge” (Acts 7:60).

Based on the reward challenge answers, and the rope-chopping sequence, Sierra is universally disliked, and an awful game player as well. I would’ve taken her on the reward just out of pity.

The more I think about this the more I think Stephen & JT (as a group) did it exactly right. Sierra was a useful vote for them, but voting out Debbie makes it extremely obvious to Coach that he’s not going to the final 4 with Stephen, JT, and Taj. He could certainly make the case to Sierra and Erinn that they were going out 4th and 5th and make a compelling final-3 promise. They’d still have to beat the idol and win the tie-breaker of course.

As it stands Coach and Debbie have no idea they’re on the outside and Erinn has very little reason to switch (she’s final 4 at the least right now). Take out Debbie or Coach next week and there’s really nothing the other one can do about it without breaking up the threesome (which we’ve seen no evidence of cracks in).

Now whether this makes sense for Stephen or Taj I’m not so sure - how can they beat JT with the jury? I guess Stephen and Taj are hoping to take him out at Final 4 (if he doesn’t win immunity) or maybe use the idol to get him out at 5. This also makes Erinn’s game a little stronger too… probably Final 3 the way things stand right now. And I could totally see her getting some votes (Tyson, Coach, Debbie maybe, Sierra maybe) since she won’t be the one seen as breaking her word.

That worries me as well and should worry Stephen and Taj. I don’t know how anyone else will win over JT, he is just too damn likable. Maybe if the final three will come down to Stephen, JT and Taj with Taj/Stephen getting immunity and taking out JT??

Possible (if they do a final two instead of final three). But I think their better bet is to make a move a 5 or 4 - probably 5 if that’s the last time to use the idol. Hell, if J.T. loses immunity next week they have to at least think about booting him then - no guarantees he won’t win the next two. They don’t have to do it, but if they don’t consider it then they’re not really trying to win the game.

All of which makes me think Erinn currently has a very strong position. She’ll likely have to be part of this move but won’t be seen as its originator. Everyone who likes J.T. (which is everyone basically) will blame Stephen/Taj for booting him.

I honestly think that Stephen is too close to J.T. now to get rid of him. And Taj isn’t a big enough player to make that kind of move.

If Coach and Debbie really believe that there was just one idol, then they are even stupider than I thought they were, which would be difficult.

How many seasons of Survivor have now passed in which there were two hidden idols? Have Coach and Debbie ever watched the show? How on Earth could they possibly be clueless enough to not think that there was an idol hidden at each camp?

No, I think that the reason Stephen and JT keep sending Erinn is exactly as they state on the show, not to keep the “secret” of two idols from Coach and Debbie, but just on the off chance that the producers hide a third one.

I would have voted off coach just to get rid of him. He is nuts.

Of seven previous seasons which featured a hidden immunity idol, only twice has there been two.

Not that any contestant should count out the possibility, but it’s reasonable that they wouldn’t assume there was two.

He had the idol.

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