Hello all,
Take you best guesses, who’s going to be voted out tonight ?
If Morgan tribe goes to TC, things don’t look good for Boy Scout Lil.
If Drake goes, I think it’ll be John, He’s one of the most annoying things I’ve ever seen.
I think Lil’s boy-toy is in greater danger than she. He seems as useful as tits on a boar.
Whether Morgan tosses Lil or Ryan S. depends on his performance in the days leading up to Mogan’s next T.C. vote. Ryan was number one on the hit list last week until Nicole shot herself in the foot, and I’m betting that Ryan does not manage to redeem himself. He’s my pick Morgan pick for tonight’s walk of shame.
Drake is a much tougher call, but I kind of doubt they’re on the way to T.C. quite yet. In any event, the leading contender is definitely Jon, who looks like he’s rubbing everyone the wrong way without contributing all that much to offset the annoyance factor. If not Jon, my guess would be that the conflict between Shaun and the Dread Pirate Hagrid will result in one or both of them walking the plank before long.
One thing to look forward to: The previews promise that the winning tribe from the reward challenge gets to send somebody to the other tribe’s camp to plunder some of their stuff. Might have some implications for the merge or any pre-merge switch, since you’re eventually going to have to deal with the folks you’re stealing from.
If Morgan loses again, I’ll say that barring any further idiocy such as Nicole exhibited last week, Ryan S will be the boot. Andrew (the lawyer) has already put the idea in the rest of the tribe’s heads that Ryan S is weak and that he didn’t pul his weight at the IC. Whether this is true or not, Andrew has largely convinced them that it’s true, and I think that when it’s this early and you don’t have much to go on, a persuasive and strong personality like Andrew’s will hold sway over most people’s opinions. Lill, while not quite fitting in, is seen to have some value in her outdoor skills and I don’t think she’s seen to be as weak as Ryan (who was referred to as a “limp noodle” last week).
If Drake loses, I’m not sure what will happen. I think that the “incident” between Shawn and Rupert is going to wind up being a red herring thrown out there by the producers…just like they always do, their “Next week on Survivor…” blurbs are almost always taken out of context and way overblown. So, unless people are annoyed by Rupert for some other reason, I don’t think his head is really on the chopping block, or at least not for what they’re trying to imply in the preview. I’m going to put my money on either Jon (who has proved to be rather abrasive so far, as several people have noted in their confessionals) or Christa, who appears to be just generally useless.
I can’t wait for tonight. I’m an ubergeek. 
I’m placing my money on Morgan winning both the reward challenge and the immunity challenge. Since the reward is being able to plunder the other tribe, I’m betting that Burnett picks a challenge that Morgan can win (since they have the most to gain from Drake’s camp). Also, Hagrid appears to go apeshit, which is probably related to their camp being plundered.
Then, the demoralized Drake tribe goes to the immunity challenge, still jumpy from an in-camp argument, and is distracted enough to get beaten.
Voted off: Hagrid.
My guess is that at this early point in the game, the tribes will go with picking off the players they perceive as being weak in the challenges. This was the reason Lill and Ryan S were being considered last week until Nicole put the target on her chest.
If Drake loses immunity, my guess is Christa, Michelle, or Sandra will be chosen as “the weakest link”.
Annoyingly, spoilers have already indicated one player who won’t be chosen this week because of mentions of things this player will be doing later in the show. So remember people - SPOILERS BAD!
I realized that the first half of Survivor is on at the same time as Friends so it looks like I’m going to miss half of the stuff. I’m counting on you guys to be as graphic as ever in your discriptions sos I can keep a handle on things.
There will be a test after, so pay attention!
In reference to what Little Nemo said (blacked out, don’t go if you don’t want to know),
From last week’s thread, several newspaper articles, and a TV Guide mention, we know that Jon is safe this week, and actually for several upcoming weeks. I can’t tell you how happy that makes me. :rolleyes:
My speculation is Ryan for Morgan, unless he comes up with something absolutely amazing to bounce back from the ‘limp noodle’ label (or someone else on that team turns out to be teeth-jarringly stupid); and one of the MuscleTwins from Drake. Don’t care which one. Though I would be even more pleased if they would vote out Christa, whose voice sends razor-sharp needles into my brain. I agree that the ‘meltdown’ is a red herring, and will likely amount to little more than Hagrid Jackson blowing off some steam.
In the previews, (this is purely my own speculation), it looks like Hagrid’s meltdown is caused by someone breaking the spear used for fishing. He (or someone else) is holding it, and it looks broken (I think). I can only guess he’s PO’d that they won’t be able to use it for fishing anymore. Just a guess, of course…
My guesses for Tribal Booting:
Ryan the Produce Clerk from Morgan or Jon from Drake.
I think Ryan or Lil is the one complaining about wanting to go home. Someone ALWAYS complains like that in the second or third show. :rolleyes: I think if they do that, they should be booted automatically, with no money at all. Freaking whiners.
Both Ryans are on the same team, right? It always takes me a few weeks to get them all straight. And then they merge and really screw me up.
I with those who think skinny Ryan is gone. I don’t expect Morgan to win the challenge, and he is likely to be seen as the weakest person on the team. No sense in voting of Ms Boy Scout yet (at least she can read a map).
If Drake loses… one of the women will be gone. No matter how much they might dislike Jon or are scared of Hagrid, they will keep them around for future immunity challenges.
In reference to the pseudo-spoilers above, the reporter who claimed that Probst revealed Jon was the teller of "teh Big Lie"now says that he got it wrong. Not a spoiler after all, it seems.
Minty, I will love you forever and ever if that’s true. And ever.
Boxed for our west coast friends…
[SPOILER] Buh-bye, Skinny Ryan. No way he could’ve recovered from that truly pathetic showing at the reward challenge (loved Jeffy, BTW- “Come on, you guys would still be out there…”). But I honestly believe that Osten’s attempt to get voted out was a ploy… notice how he didn’t ask the “important people” to vote him out. If he really wanted to go, he could have arranged it (or could have just quit, right? there’s nothing actually keeping them there, and IIRC if you volunteer to quit the tribe doesn’t go to council). Hagrid Jackson’s meltdown was indeed a red herring… I think he’ll be around for a while.
John, not so much. Please.[/SPOILER]
More from me later after full processing… what did y’all think?
OK, I told ya’ll I’d have questions.
I saw Osten asking to be voted off and the tribal meeting and nothing else. What was the immunity challenge and how bad did Morgan lose? What was the Hargrid flip-out about? Was there another challenge besides the immunity one?
Why, oh why did they vote skinny guy out? I so hoped Fearless Leader would be usurped by him. Fearless Leader seems like nothing but a stupid bully and Skinny Guy actually had a brain.
Since the night is still young, I’ll use the spoiler box too:
Well, no one saw that coming. OK, we all saw it coming. What I want to know is, who did Osten vote for? He couldn’t vote for himself, and if he really wanted off, it would have been dumb to vote for Ryan who was his main competition. He should have voted for one of the others who would never get votes – if he was smart, and if he really wanted to get off. But I’m not sure either one of those is true. Does the survivor website still list all the votes the next day?
It is one thing to not have a clue. It is another to have a clue and not be able to open it. Well on second thought.
So much for spoilers. Warning, if you haven’t seen the show:
challenge was pretty close – Morgan was actually ahead early, but had trouble getting one of the clues open.
The earlier reward challenge was a total blowout, however. Ryan got Morgan off to a really bad start, and they never recovered. His general lack of physical prowess made him a good choice to vote off, even though I liked him a lot.
And I like Drake, but I felt bad for Morgan when their tarp got taken.
Spoiler stuff that I’m too lazy to put in the box, so anyone who hasn’t watched the episode, beware.
My biggest impression from tonight’s show? Osten is a giant pussy. Dear Og, I only wish this guy had been booted…and I’m pretty sure that the only reason he wasn’t is that Morgan is dead in the water without Osten’s strength in any future physical challenges. Osten could pretty much take a dump on someone’s dinner plate at this point and there’s no way he’s getting booted before the merge.
Why didn’t they sit out Ryan S for such a physical challenge? Even one of the girls would have been better. At least he acknowledged in his parting words that his big mistake was not making friends with the right people. If you can’t contribute to the challenges, you need to create the impression that you’re valuable in other ways, and allying himself with Lill rather than the “popular” people on the tribe was his death warrant.
I knew that the Rupert freak out would be an overblown nothing and it was. He didn’t yell at anyone, and they all talked calmly about how to resolve the situation. I think that Shawn was even out helping Rupert look for the spear head when Rupert found it, which was cool.
I’m not sure I agree with Sandra taking Morgan’s tarp. That’s going to haunt her later, I think…Drake was pretty well set, and although it seemed as if the tarp was the only thing that Drake could really use, I think she would have been better off taking a token item from Morgan. There’s some seriously bad blood between her and the Morgan members now…although Morgan didn’t help the situation. From what they showed (and I realize that editing is everything in this game), it appeared that Sandra was trying to be diplomatic when she arrived. I know that losing their most important item really stung Morgan hard, but I think they’d have been better served to at least try to be gracious about it…as Jeff pointed out, these post RC lootings are the way the game is going to play out from here on out, and they should (in theory) have chances later to regain anything they lose.
Did they show Darrah speak at all this episode?? She’s like a non-person at this point…which usually means that she gets more character development later in the show, so she’ll probably be around for a while. I predict she goes to at least post-merge.
I liked the new IC…I thought it was pretty unique as far as challenges go, I don’t recall seeing anything very similar in past series. The RC was pretty standard, though. What do y’all think is in the buried treasure?
I hope someone (Sandra) punches Jon in the face next week.
Note to self:
If I ever take a boat trip with any possibility of being shipwrecked-wear tight, fitting underpants.
I’ve seen enough plumber-butts in these two weeks to last me a lifetime.
Darrah had a confessional or two. Other than that, the only place I saw her was Tribal Council.